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📰 France exits Chad

📰 France exits Chad

and Turkey’s Syria dilemma

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 12, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

Today's headlines once again focus on the Korean Peninsula, where Pyongyang's sabre-rattling follows South Korean president Yoon’s recent martial law attempt. Meanwhile, Argentina marks one year under President Javier Milei, whose controversial economic reforms have deeply polarised the nation.

Syria also makes headlines, with an Israeli incursion and a massive airstrike campaign. Additionally, the main story highlights Turkiye’s significant role in Syria's current juncture.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇹🇩 🇸🇳 France begins Chad withdrawal, Senegal voices anti-French sentiment: France has begun withdrawing its military forces from Chad, with two Mirage fighter jets departing N'Djamena for their base in eastern France, marking the initial phase of the pullout. This follows Chad’s surprise decision on November 28 to terminate its defence cooperation agreement with Paris, despite being a key Western ally in combating Islamist militants in the region. While details of the withdrawal, including whether any French troops will remain, are still under discussion, the departure signals the end of decades-long French military involvement in the Sahel. France has already withdrawn forces from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger amid military coups and rising anti-French sentiment, leaving about 1,000 troops in Chad as a drawdown timeline is being finalised.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF and RSF trade airstrikes in North Darfur, Omdurman, killing hundreds: At least 127 people, mostly civilians, have been killed as Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continue intense clashes involving barrel bombs and shelling. In Omdurman, RSF shelling on Tuesday reportedly killed 65 people, while an army airstrike on a crowded market in Kabkabiya, North Darfur, a day earlier left over 100 dead, according to Emergency Lawyers. Both groups have indiscriminately targeted civilian areas since their conflict began in April 2023, with ceasefire efforts repeatedly failing. The army, which controls parts of the capital and the north and east, denied responsibility for the Kabkabiya strike, claiming the right to target RSF positions, as the battle for North Darfur’s capital, al-Fashir, continues.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 Israel launches 480 airstrikes on Syria, seeks ‘sterile defence zone’: Israel’s defence minister has announced plans to establish a “sterile defence zone” in southern Syria following a wave of airstrikes and territorial advances after President Bashar al-Assad’s removal. Israeli forces recently entered the demilitarised zone, seizing an abandoned Syrian military post on Mount Hermon, overlooking Damascus. Defence Minister Israel Katz stated the zone would deter terrorism but would not involve a permanent Israeli presence. Over the past 48 hours, the Israeli military conducted around 480 strikes on critical Syrian military infrastructure, described as the largest air operation in its history. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, these strikes targeted airports, aircraft, radars, signal stations, and weapons depots across multiple governorates, devastating key military sites amid the ongoing security vacuum.

4️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇪🇺 Romania’s pro-EU parties to form coalition government: Romania’s pro-European parties agreed on Monday to form a governing majority, excluding the hard right and potentially backing a unified candidate for a re-run of the annulled presidential election. The Social Democrats, who won the most seats in the December 1 parliamentary election, face a parliament where ultranationalist and pro-Russian factions hold over a third of seats. The presidential race saw NATO-critic Calin Georgescu unexpectedly lead, triggering accusations of Russian interference before the top court annulled the vote on Friday. The new government must now set a timeline for the re-election, likely in early 2025.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 Northern Ireland votes to continue Brexit arrangement: The Northern Ireland Assembly has voted 48 to 36 in favour of extending special Brexit trading arrangements for another four years. This decision ensures the region will continue following certain EU trade laws to maintain a seamless border with Ireland, despite ongoing unionist opposition. The vote highlighted persistent Brexit divisions, with unionist MLAs opposing the extension and nationalist and Alliance party members supporting it. Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn confirmed compliance with legal requirements, including commissioning an independent review of the arrangements, and reiterated the government’s commitment to implementing the Windsor Framework to safeguard the UK internal market while ensuring stability for Northern Ireland’s businesses and traders.

Major Story

🇸🇾 🇹🇷 SYRIA’S NEW DAWN: TURKEY’S ROLE

Turkey has been a significant external supporter of Syrian rebel groups—particularly in the northwest—bordering Syrian opposition-held territories. President Erdoğan’s government has historically supported the Syrian opposition, including Islamist factions, since the 2011 Arab Spring uprising. While the most influential group, Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—once Jabhat Al-Nusra—has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots, Turkey claims to have not directly aligned with it. Turkey’s main ally in Syria remains the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-controlled force.

Syria’s Changing Battlefield and Turkey’s Concerns

The recent fall of Aleppo and Hama to rebel forces shook the Syrian regime, ultimately foreboding its collapse. Although Turkey may have seen the regime’s fall as a strategic victory, dovetailing a greater degree of influence over the next administration, the jihadist nature of HTS raises concerns about the instability this may bring.

Turkey’s Focus on Kurdish Forces

Turkey’s primary concern remains the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led group allied with the U.S. Turkey views Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria as a direct threat to its own territorial integrity, fearing Kurdish separatism. While Turkey has made tactical advances against the SDF, the larger geopolitical context, including U.S. involvement, complicates its objectives.

The Future of Syria: Peace or Chaos?

The rapid developments make a peace process seem unlikely. With Assad seemingly removed, Syria remains embroiled in a series of zero-sum conflicts—where regional and global powers continue to vie for influence—with little hope for a diplomatic resolution.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 Pyongyang calls South Korea a ‘dictatorship’ over martial law attempt, police raid Yoon’s office: North Korea has responded to the political unrest in South Korea, with state media accusing President Yoon Suk Yeol of unleashing a “dictatorship on the people” after his failed attempt to impose martial law. Analysts suggest Pyongyang aims to exploit the turmoil in the South to bolster its own agenda, despite the irony of highlighting unrest in another authoritarian system. Meanwhile, South Korean police raided the office of President Yoon Suk Yeol over his role in declaring martial law last week – a move that plunged Asia’s fourth-biggest economy into crisis and caused alarm among its allies.

2️⃣ 🇦🇷 One year of Javier Milei: Javier Milei’s first year as Argentina’s president has been marked by sweeping economic reforms and polarising decisions. Assuming office in December 2023 as Argentina’s first libertarian leader, Milei swiftly tackled inflation, slashing public spending by 35%—an unprecedented move that achieved a fiscal surplus and reduced monthly inflation from over 25% to 2.7%. Despite this, Argentina faced its deepest recession in Latin America, with poverty rates soaring to over 50%. While the Central Bank’s reserves recovered, and the peso gained value under tightened monetary policies, critics noted the high human cost of his fiscal adjustments. Milei promises that the worst is over, projecting economic growth for 2025. His policies, though controversial, represent a dramatic shift in Argentina’s governance and economic strategy.