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Dramatic shifts in Paris and Tokyo as France’s government collapses and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba steps down. Meanwhile, cracks emerge in Russia’s financial fortress despite Putin’s war economy.

Our lead story today explores China and India’s symbolic thaw.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 France’s government collapses: French lawmakers voted 364 to 194 to topple Prime Minister François Bayrou’s minority government over his €43.8 billion austerity plan, plunging the country into fresh turmoil. President Emmanuel Macron is expected to accept Bayrou’s resignation on Tuesday and appoint a successor within days, though any new premier would face the same fractured parliament. Options include another minority government, a technocratic cabinet, or a risky snap election likely to reproduce deadlock. Markets are unsettled as France struggles with a 5.4% deficit and €3.3 trillion debt, raising doubts about its capacity to impose fiscal discipline. Media speculate that Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu, Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin, or Economy Minister Eric Lombard could succeed Bayrou, though forging a viable coalition remains uncertain.

2️⃣ 🇯🇵 Motegi launches leadership bid as Japan’s LDP reels from Ishiba resignation: Former Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi became the first lawmaker to declare his candidacy to replace outgoing Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who resigned after election losses cost the ruling coalition its parliamentary majority. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will hold an emergency leadership vote on 4 October, with markets closely watching contenders’ economic positions. Investors expect frontrunners Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal dove who could become Japan’s first female leader, and Shinjiro Koizumi, a popular reformist, to dominate the race. Takaichi’s opposition to interest rate hikes and calls for higher spending have already tempered expectations of near-term monetary tightening. Her hawkish stance on China, including visits to Yasukuni Shrine and Taiwan, could also strain regional relations as Japan faces renewed political and economic uncertainty.

3️⃣ 🇸🇧 🇫🇯 🇻🇺 Pacific Islands leaders open Solomon Islands summit focused on climate and security: Pacific leaders opened their annual summit in Honiara, with climate change and regional security dominating the agenda amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. The 18-member Pacific Islands Forum will retreat later in the week to Munda, though foreign observers—including the U.S., China, and Taiwan—were barred after a dispute over Taipei’s participation. Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele urged “strengthened Pacific regionalism,” while Forum Secretary-General Divavesi Waqa said issues such as climate change and ocean governance are “lived realities.” Leaders are expected to endorse Fiji’s “Ocean of Peace” declaration, affirming stewardship of the Pacific and rejecting coercion. Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will attend after visiting Vanuatu, as Canberra pushes its bid to host COP31 alongside Pacific nations.

4️⃣ 🇦🇷 Milei suffers major defeat in Buenos Aires elections amid corruption scandal: Argentine President Javier Milei suffered his sharpest electoral setback since taking office, as his coalition lost Buenos Aires province’s legislative elections by 47% to 34%. Milei had cast the vote as a “life-or-death battle” for his government, amplifying the significance of the defeat. The result comes amid a corruption scandal involving his influential sister, Karina, and mounting frustration over soaring inflation, stagnant wages, and austerity measures. Milei acknowledged “clear defeat” but vowed to “accelerate and deepen” his policies. His popularity has also been dented by a cryptocurrency debacle, public spending cuts, and a rare congressional move to overturn his veto on pension increases. With midterm elections looming in October, analysts warn this marks the beginning of the president’s most difficult political period.

5️⃣ 🇹🇿 Samia faces rising tensions as opposition barred from Tanzania election: Tanzania heads to elections on 29 October under mounting strain after a turbulent nomination process. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party sidelined more than half its MPs and 40 senior figures, including ex-ministers January Makamba and Luhaga Mpina, a vocal critic of President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Mpina defected to opposition ACT-Wazalendo, which swiftly endorsed him as its presidential candidate, only for his candidacy to be annulled on procedural grounds. The electoral commission confirmed 17 contenders—excluding Mpina—prompting ACT to launch a legal challenge. Meanwhile, the judiciary tightened pressure on Chadema leader Tundu Lissu, advancing treason charges, restricting trial coverage, and ordering anonymous witnesses. Police also detained Chadema youth chair Gasper Temba under contested circumstances, fuelling claims of escalating political repression.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇮🇳 CHINA AND INDIA’S SYMBOLIC THAW

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s late August visit to Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit marked his first trip to China in seven years. Meeting President Xi Jinping on the sidelines, Modi struck a notably warmer tone than in recent years, signalling tentative re-engagement after the deadly 2020 Himalayan border clash. Both leaders stressed the need to prevent border disputes from defining ties and framed cooperation as preferable to rivalry.

The U.S. Factor

The timing magnified the meeting’s importance. Days earlier, President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports, citing New Delhi’s continued purchases of Russian oil and fallout from a brief conflict with Pakistan. The move shook a relationship Washington once described as a “natural alliance.” Footage of Modi in animated conversation with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin was widely interpreted as a message to Washington that India will not yield to U.S. pressure.

Re-engagement with Beijing

The summit followed a cautious reset launched in 2024, beginning with a brief Modi-Xi encounter at the BRICS summit in Russia. Subsequent diplomacy produced agreements on troop disengagement along the disputed frontier, resumption of border trade, and greater economic cooperation. These steps have eased tensions, though more than 50,000 soldiers remain stationed in rear areas on both sides of the Line of Actual Control.

For Modi, rapprochement with Beijing is driven by pragmatism. China remains India’s second-largest trading partner, and easing tensions helps insulate New Delhi from Trump’s tariffs. The SCO also offers a platform to reinforce India’s role in shaping a multipolar order, while curbing China’s ability to dominate Asian institutions unchecked. Yet rivalry with Beijing remains inevitable, given competing regional ambitions and the unresolved border.

Moscow’s Place

Equally striking was Modi’s public warmth toward Putin. The India-Russia partnership, rooted in decades of defence and energy cooperation, has endured despite Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Modi reaffirmed the relationship, casting it as central to “peace and stability,” while resisting U.S. pressure to halt Russian oil imports.

India is unlikely to pivot fully toward Beijing, but Trump’s tariffs have accelerated Modi’s search for diplomatic flexibility. The SCO meeting projected resilience abroad and reassured domestic audiences of Modi’s stature, even as India balances fraught ties with both Washington and Beijing.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Putin’s war economy masks fragility in Russia’s financial fortress: Russia’s economy has weathered three and a half years of war and a decade of sanctions far better than expected. Predictions of collapse in 2022 proved misplaced: after a brief 1.4 percent contraction, GDP grew more than 4 percent annually in 2023 and 2024. This resilience stems from years of preparation since Crimea’s annexation, when Moscow cut debt, built reserves above $600 billion, and reduced reliance on foreign financing. Loopholes in sanctions and weak secondary enforcement further cushioned the blow. Yet the strain is mounting. Lost growth has left GDP 12 percent below potential, with over $1.6 trillion in cumulative losses. Inflation, stagnating credit, and falling surpluses signal fragility. Putin’s propaganda stifles dissent, but tighter sanctions and asset seizures could erode this facade of strength.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli forces seal East Jerusalem and intensify West Bank raids after deadly shooting: Israeli forces sealed all entrances to occupied East Jerusalem after a shooting at a bus station killed six Israelis and wounded at least 12. Police said the assailants, later killed at the scene, had opened fire from a vehicle. The army imposed a cordon on nearby villages including Qatana, Biddu, Beit Inan, and Beit Duqu, launching raids. Across the West Bank, soldiers raided Qabatiya, Siris, and al-Jadidah near Jenin, seizing homes for military use, while demolitions in Beita destroyed around 30 percent of local market shops. In Sur Baher, a Palestinian family was forced to demolish four homes sheltering 12 people. Meanwhile, settlers attacked the village of Osarin, torching vehicles and injuring a resident, amid ongoing Israeli operations alongside the Gaza war.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics