Geopolitics Daily
Posts
🇫🇷 Is France on the verge of a far right government?

🇫🇷 Is France on the verge of a far right government?

and Iran to hold run-off election

Billy Robinson
July 01, 2024

Hello!

Today's dispatch brings significant updates from DR Congo, the Indo-Pacific, and the Israel-Lebanon front, as well as news from Belize, which is implementing a ‘Bukele-esque’ state of emergency.

We also focus on elections in France, Iran, and Mauritania, each carrying substantial geopolitical implications.

Meanwhile, Bulgaria elects a pro-Kremlin clergyman as head of their patriarchate, a position with considerable political influence.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 First round of French election sees National Rally edge closer to a majority: The far-right National Rally (RN) is poised to become the dominant political force in France after the first round of snap parliamentary elections. According to exit polls by Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay, and Elabe, RN secured approximately 34% of the national vote, translating to about 12 million votes. This marks a significant increase from the 18% vote share it achieved in the 2022 parliamentary elections. Marine Le Pen, RN's leader, expressed confidence after the polls closed, stating that the French people had clearly shown their desire to move on from President Emmanuel Macron's seven-year tenure. Le Pen aims to increase RN's parliamentary seats from the current 88 to an absolute majority of 289 in the upcoming decisive second round of voting. Should this happen, it would be the first time in French history that a far-right party wins a parliamentary election and forms a government, necessitating power-sharing with Macron.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Rwanda-backed M23 seize town in DR Congo’s North Kivu province: Kanyabayonga has been under M23 control since Friday evening, according to a Congolese administrative official. This town, located on the northern front of the North Kivu conflict, has been a hotspot of violence since the M23 resumed its armed campaign in 2021. Kanyabayonga is a key route to the major commercial centres of Butembo and Beni in the north, housing over 60,000 residents, along with tens of thousands of displaced individuals fleeing the rebel advance. The town, in Lubero territory, is the fourth in North Kivu to be overtaken by M23, following Rutshuru, Nyiragongo, and Masisi. Colonel Alain Kiwewa, military administrator of Lubero territory, noted an influx of displaced people from Miriki, Kirumba, and Luofu moving northward. The United Nations Joint Human Rights Office, in its monthly report on Friday, stated that clashes are displacing civilians and that humanitarian organisations have suspended operations for security reasons. "They have nowhere left to go; it is total desolation, and the population is exhausted," he added.

3️⃣ 🇧🇿 State of emergency in Belize draws El Salvador comparisons: Belize's controversial state of emergency to address a surge in gang-related murders and violent crimes has resulted in nearly a hundred arrests. Announced on Tuesday, the order grants police the authority to search homes without a warrant and detain suspects for up to 90 days. Initially set for 30 days, the government extended it on Friday to enhance its effectiveness. The state of emergency also enforces a nightly curfew on minors, who are often exploited by gangs. Belize, located in Central America and bordering Mexico and Guatemala, is a member of Caricom, which raised concerns last year about regional crime and violence. Responding to comparisons with President Nayib Bukele's El Salvador’s harsh gang crackdown, Belize police commissioner Chester Williams defended the measures as necessary to restore law and order.

4️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇰🇷 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 North Korea accuses South Korea, Japan, and the US of forming ‘the Asian NATO’: North Korea condemned joint military drills by South Korea, Japan, and the United States on Sunday, labelling them as an "Asian version of NATO" and warning of severe consequences. This criticism followed the conclusion of the three-day "Freedom Edge" exercises, which included ballistic missile and air defence, anti-submarine warfare, and defensive cyber training. The annual drills, agreed upon at a trilateral summit last year, aim to showcase unity against North Korea's nuclear threats and China's growing regional influence. North Korea's foreign ministry, through state-run KCNA news agency, denounced the "provocative military muscle-flexing" and warned of "fatal consequences," stating it would not ignore the US and its allies' efforts to strengthen their military alliance.

5️⃣ 🇲🇷 Mauritania elections: Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani has been re-elected, according to provisional results from the country's electoral commission, with over 56% of the vote from 99.27% of polling stations. Ghazouani, a 67-year-old former army chief of staff and defence minister, first elected in 2019, has promised to boost investment to spur a commodities boom as Mauritania prepares to start natural gas production by the year's end. Analysts expected Ghazouani to win in the first round, given the ruling party's dominance. His main rival, anti-slavery activist Biram Dah Abeid, secured 22.14%, followed by Hamadi Sidi El Mokhtar of the Islamist Tawassoul party with 12.8%. Abeid rejected the provisional results, alleging irregularities.

Major Story

🇮🇷 IRAN ELECTIONS

Iran will hold a run-off election after hardline candidate Saeed Jalili and reformist candidate Massoud Pezeshkian both failed to secure a majority in the presidential race.

Both candidates received around 40% of the vote, with Pezeshkian narrowly leading, following the death of former president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19.

Former nuclear negotiator Jalili trailed Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon and health minister, by about a million votes, according to early results. Pezeshkian has criticised the morality police, calling their actions "immoral," though he remains loyal to Iran's supreme leader. Analysts suggest his presidency might offer a change in tone rather than policy.

Despite 61.5 million eligible voters, turnout was only about 40%, the lowest since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had called for maximum turnout.

A Presidential runoff

The interior ministry confirmed that the run-off election between Massoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili is scheduled for July 5. The candidate with the most votes will be declared the next president of Iran. This is only the second time since the 1979 revolution that a presidential election has gone to a second round. Three other conservative candidates have endorsed Jalili, but Pezeshkian's biggest challenge may be overcoming another record-low voter turnout.

Policy implications

The Iranian president's power is often misunderstood, overshadowed by the Supreme Leader's authority, which significantly influences key policies and checks the president's power. The president, while constrained, still controls important state functions like appointing cabinet members, proposing budgets, and leading decision-making councils such as the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution. Since 2020, conservatives have tightened their grip on power, though internal disputes persist.

The new president will face significant challenges, including social unrest, a weak economy, and strained international relations, particularly with Israel and the U.S., and issues surrounding Iran's nuclear programme. Candidates have criticised the late President Raisi's handling of these issues, with Pezeshkian particularly vocal about social restrictions, Western sanctions, and ties with Russia and China. Despite these debates, the system appears committed to its current path, suggesting limited potential for significant change.

The geopolitics of the election

The elected candidate will start a four-year term leading Iran's executive branch during a period of significant socio-political unrest and economic challenges at home, alongside heightened tensions in the Middle East and strained relations with the West. A key issue contributing to international friction is Tehran's steadily advancing nuclear program, which continues to progress as diplomatic efforts to curb it wane.

Promotion

If you love our stuff we know you’ll love Ground News! Their platform provides around the clock coverage of global news from all political perspectives.

We can’t recommend their app enough!

(p.s. as we’ve partnered with them - by signing up you’ll be helping to grow this newsletter too! 🤫)

Get Ground News by clicking here ⤵️

Ground News App

Compare Today’s Top News Headlines from Multiple Perspectives: Local, Foreign, National; Left to Right. See What the Other Side Sees. Be Well Informed.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Iran warns of ‘an obliterating war’ if Israel invades Lebanon: Iran's mission to the United Nations warned on Friday that any "full-scale military aggression" by Israel in Lebanon would lead to a devastating war. The statement, posted on X, emphasised that in such an event, "all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts, are on the table." This follows a recent uptick in violence in Lebanon, as Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has frequently emphasised the need to eliminate Iran-backed Hizbollah in Lebanon to facilitate the return of displaced Israelis. Confronting Hizbollah directly would have catastrophic consequences for both Lebanese and Israeli populations, similar to the devastation seen during the 2006 war and the 1985-2000 conflict.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Crucial Israel-Palestine banking waiver extended: Israel’s finance minister has extended a waiver allowing cooperation between its banking system and Palestinian banks in the West Bank, according to the minister’s spokesperson. This waiver, set to expire at the end of June, enables Israeli banks to process shekel payments for services and salaries linked to the Palestinian Authority, essential for the Palestinian economy. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich approved the extension during a recent cabinet meeting, after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen emphasised the importance of maintaining these banking relationships to support the economies of the West Bank and Gaza Strip and ensure security. In 2023, Palestinian banks processed transactions totaling 53 billion shekels ($14 billion).

3️⃣ 🇧🇬 🇷🇺 Russia-aligned clergyman ascends to Bulgarian Patriarchy: The Orthodox Church in Bulgaria has chosen a pro-Russian leader following the death of Patriarch Neofit. Metropolitan Daniil, 52, was elected with 69 out of 138 delegate votes, as announced by the Holy Synod on Sunday. He won a run-off against 50-year-old Hryhoriy, who received 66 votes and is considered neutral towards the Kremlin. The Bulgarian patriarch is elected for life, and Neofit, who passed away in March at 78, had called for an end to the war in Ukraine. Daniil, in a 2023 video message, expressed support for the Kremlin. In November 2022, he instructed his priests against fostering hatred towards any warring party, specifically criticising the portrayal of Russia as the sole aggressor in the conflict.

4️⃣ 🇨🇳 Expulsion of former CCP defence ministers linked to Taiwan: The ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has expelled former Defence Minister Li Shangfu and his predecessor Wei Fenghe as part of an anti corruption campaign, according to state media. Li, who disappeared from public view two months before his dismissal in October 2023, and Wei were expelled for "serious violations of party discipline and the law," Xinhua reported on Thursday. This move comes amid escalating tensions between China and the United States over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Xinhua also noted that Li's case has been referred to military prosecutors, potentially leading to a life sentence. Following a Politburo meeting, it was stated that Li had "betrayed his original mission and lost his party spirit and principles," and had "seriously polluted the political environment and industrial ethos in the field of military equipment, causing great damage to the party’s cause, national defence, and the armed forces."