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📰 French Court bans Le Pen

📰 French Court bans Le Pen

and IDF issue new Rafah evacuation order

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 01, 2025

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In East Asia, South Korea, China, and Japan have resumed trilateral talks to boost regional trade, while China has launched military drills around Taiwan.

Our lead story shifts focus to the South Caucasus, where Gulf states are steadily expanding their strategic presence through high-stakes investments and growing diplomatic ties.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 French court bars Marine Le Pen from office for 5 years after embezzlement conviction: A Paris court has barred Marine Le Pen from holding public office for five years, effectively ending her 2027 presidential bid and throwing the National Rally into turmoil. Convicted of misusing €4.1m in EU funds between 2004 and 2016, Le Pen received a four-year prison sentence—two suspended, two under house arrest—plus a €100,000 fine. Though the court found no personal enrichment, it placed her at the centre of a scheme that funded her party through fake parliamentary jobs. While she plans to appeal, the sentence’s immediate enforcement and the lack of a party contingency have shaken the far right’s momentum, leaving her protégé Jordan Bardella—young, popular, but unprepared—as the RN’s most viable alternative.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 White House to replace Elise Stefanik’s as U.S. ambassador to UN: The Trump administration is seeking a replacement for Rep. Elise Stefanik as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, with former officials David Friedman and Ellie Cohanim emerging as top contenders. While some high-profile figures like Sen. Bill Hagerty and Richard Grenell have declined interest, insiders suggest the White House wants a nominee aligned with Trump’s America First vision. The administration sees the U.N. as a platform to assert U.S. positions, despite skepticism of global institutions. The vacancy has delayed diplomatic engagement and underscored internal urgency to appoint a trusted voice, with candidates like Friedman and Cohanim offering strong pro-Israel credentials that align with Trump’s priorities.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇹🇼 China launches largest military drills of 2025 around Taiwan: China launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan, accusing the island’s leadership of separatism and issuing a direct threat of war. The unannounced exercises involved forces from the PLA Navy, Army, Rocket Force, and Coast Guard encircling Taiwan from multiple directions. Beijing framed the manoeuvres as a warning against “pro-independence provocations” by President Lai Ching-te, whose recent speech it condemned. Taiwan’s military responded by deploying missile systems and scrambling jets after detecting 19 Chinese vessels, including the Shandong aircraft carrier.

4️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 UAE’s demand for Sudan’s gold ‘the lifeblood of its war’: Sudan’s gold industry is booming despite war, with official figures showing a record 64 tonnes produced in 2024. Yet nearly half is smuggled, and experts say this gold—often routed through Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt—ends up in the UAE, helping finance both sides of the conflict. While the UAE denies wrongdoing, Dubai-based firms own stakes in key Sudanese mines, and research shows major discrepancies between declared exports and actual gold flows. Sudan has even filed a case at the UN’s top court accusing the UAE of abetting genocide, as the country’s vast gold wealth continues to fuel the war, with little sign of effective international oversight.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 IDF issue new Rafah evacuation order: As Israel orders a mass evacuation from Rafah amid renewed bombardment, Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri has called on supporters worldwide to take up arms in opposition to what he described as an Israeli-American-backed plan to depopulate Gaza. He condemned proposals floated by Donald Trump and embraced by Prime Minister Netanyahu that would see Palestinians “voluntarily” relocated to neighbouring states. Thousands began fleeing Rafah on Monday, with many residents abandoning their possessions as Israeli forces issued maps showing the entire city as a target zone. The forced displacement, paired with escalating military action and internal unrest in Gaza, is fuelling Hamas’s fears of losing both territorial control and public support.

Major Story

🇦🇪 🇸🇦 🇬🇪 🇦🇿 GULF STATES DEEPEN STRATEGIC FOOTPRINT IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is accelerating its engagement in the South Caucasus, leveraging economic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Georgia to expand its geopolitical reach. Emirati and Saudi investments—particularly in energy and infrastructure—signal a shift toward long-term regional influence. UAE’s ADNOC has taken a stake in Azerbaijan’s gas sector, while ACWA Power and Masdar are backing renewables in both countries. Georgia, meanwhile, is strengthening ties through major Emirati-led projects, including Tbilisi’s Dry Port and real estate ventures.

For Baku and Tbilisi, deeper GCC ties help counterbalance dominant neighbours like Russia and Iran while enhancing their global connectivity. The GCC’s post-reconciliation diplomacy with Tehran further adds to its appeal as a neutral and pragmatic partner. With Turkey also fostering ties in the region, this trilateral alignment boosts Gulf influence amid shifting global trade routes. The South Caucasus now emerges as a key node linking Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, as Gulf states pursue a durable role in shaping future regional dynamics.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇰🇷 🇯🇵 🇨🇳 South Korea, China, Japan discuss promoting regional trade following latest U.S. tariffs: The trade ministers of China, Japan, and South Korea met in Seoul on Sunday for their first trilateral talks since 2019, aiming to deepen cooperation amid global trade uncertainty driven by President Trump’s tariff policies. In a joint statement, the ministers reaffirmed support for a rules-based global trading system centred on the WTO and backed efforts to reform its core functions. They pledged to accelerate talks on a trilateral free trade agreement and enhance collaboration within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which includes all three nations and represents nearly a third of global GDP. The ministers also committed to advancing joint efforts on carbon-free energy and digital innovation, with the next meeting set to take place in Japan.

2️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 Somalia offers U.S. operational control of Somaliland ports: Somalia’s government has offered the United States exclusive access to strategic ports on the Gulf of Aden, aiming to strengthen bilateral ties and dissuade Washington from recognising autonomous regions like Somaliland. In a letter sent on March 16, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud proposed U.S. control over key assets in Berbera and Bosaso, despite neither being under Mogadishu’s authority. These locations, in Somaliland and Puntland respectively, are managed by DP World, a UAE-based company, and have been eyed for U.S. military and intelligence operations. The move reflects Somalia’s struggle to assert sovereignty amid fears that the Trump administration might support Somaliland’s decades-long push for independence.

3️⃣ 🇨🇮 🇧🇯 🇹🇬 AES-ECOWAS splinter poses threat to West Africa's coastal states: In January, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger formally exited ECOWAS after forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a new regional bloc. Their departure has sparked diplomatic tensions with ECOWAS members and disrupted trade and cross-border movement. The split also carries significant security consequences, as the three AES countries are battling entrenched insurgencies involving al-Qaida and Islamic State-linked groups like JNIM and Islamic State-Sahel Province. These armed groups now pose a growing threat not only to the Sahel but also to coastal states such as Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Togo.