📰 G7 gathers

and Israel's algorithmic warfare on Iran

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 16, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

G7 leaders convene today in Calgary, Alberta, with Trump’s escalating trade war and the Gaza crisis expected to dominate discussions. Meanwhile, China deepens economic ties by expanding tariff-free access for African states, and Vietnam is officially welcomed as the 10th member of BRICS.

Our top story examines why regime change—not destroying nuclear centrifuges—is Israel’s true objective in its war with Iran.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel unveils AI-powered future of warfare in strikes on Iran: Israel’s “Rising Lion” assault on Iran marks a seismic shift in Middle Eastern warfare, combining airpower, cyber tactics, and artificial intelligence to deliver a multi-domain strike. More than 200 aircraft executed 330 precision strikes on 100 sites, enabled by AI-assisted coordination, real-time ISR fusion, and autonomous systems. What sets this apart is not only the scope—hitting nuclear, missile, and command targets—but the covert use of a Mossad-operated drone base near Tehran. Deployed UAVs dismantled radar and missile systems from within Iran, revealing deep structural infiltration. Electronic jamming, stealth flight paths, and likely internal collusion allowed Israeli forces to operate undetected. This campaign represents the dawn of algorithmic warfare in the region—an integrated, AI-driven model reshaping the strategic calculus of modern conflict.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 Trump’s trade war and Gaza crisis threaten to derail G7 talks in Alberta: As G7 leaders gather in Alberta for one of the most tense summits in years, divisions over trade and the Middle East loom large. U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at odds with most G7 counterparts on key issues, including tariffs and Israel’s war in Gaza, leaving Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney—this year’s chair—scrambling to keep the alliance intact. Trump’s unpredictability and his hardline stance on trade and Iran-Israel tensions complicate talks, while the escalation from proxy warfare to direct conflict in the region raises stakes dramatically. Although Carney is meeting leaders like the U.K.’s Keir Starmer to advance bilateral deals, observers warn the summit risks imploding—much like the infamous 2018 G7 fallout—especially with Trump dominating the agenda.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇰🇪 🇿🇦 China expands tariff-free access for Africa amid rising U.S. trade pressure: Beijing has announced an expanded zero-tariff initiative for African exports, extending market access beyond least developed countries to include middle-income states. The move, unveiled at the FOCAC summit in Changsha, comes as African exporters brace for steep U.S. tariffs—up to 50% in some cases—under President Trump’s trade policy. While China says the shift strengthens South-South cooperation and addresses its $62bn trade surplus with Africa, critics caution the focus on raw material imports could entrench Africa’s dependency on extractive industries. Eswatini remains excluded due to its diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Although Beijing promises technical and commercial support, questions remain over whether the policy will genuinely support value-added sectors or merely reinforce Africa’s role as a supplier of low-value commodities.

4️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Europe’s support for Israel’s Iran strikes exposes its diplomatic bankruptcy, writes Quincy Institute: Europe’s reaction to Israel’s unprecedented strikes on Iranian soil—attacks that killed civilians and senior officials—has revealed its profound diplomatic hypocrisy, writes Quincy Institute's Eldar Mamedov. While decrying Russian aggression in Ukraine as a breach of sovereignty, EU leaders endorsed Israel’s unprovoked assault, framing it as legitimate self-defence. French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen repeated this refrain, while Germany condemned Iran before it retaliated. This double standard hasn’t gone unnoticed. Former IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei reminded Germany that attacking nuclear sites violates international law. UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese slammed Europe’s selective defence of sovereignty. Meanwhile, Europe’s earlier failures—abandoning the Iran nuclear deal, backing IAEA censure, and appeasing U.S. sanctions—paved the way for this escalation. Now, with talks dead, trust eroded, and Iran likely to exit the NPT, Europe faces geopolitical blowback—and moral irrelevance.

5️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇮🇳 Canada and India to launch intelligence-sharing deal amid Sikh activist assassination fallout: Canada and India are reportedly preparing to announce a new intelligence-sharing agreement focused on transnational crime and extremism, according to Bloomberg, ahead of a leaders’ meeting at the G7 summit. The proposed deal marks a potential shift in relations after a bitter diplomatic rift erupted over Canada’s accusation that India orchestrated the 2023 assassination of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Canada has pressed for deeper cooperation on investigating extrajudicial killings. Prime Minister Mark Carney, who faced backlash for inviting Narendra Modi to the summit, defended the decision, citing India’s global economic role. The agreement follows revelations that an alleged Indian operative was tracking opposition leader Jagmeet Singh. Ottawa has warned that India’s actions violated Canadian sovereignty, while lawmakers stress that justice for Nijjar remains non-negotiable.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 REGIME CHANGE, NOT CENTRIFUGES: ISRAEL’S TRUE AIM IN STRIKING IRAN

Western policy on Iran has long been split between those seeking behavioural change and those pursuing regime change. The former view Tehran’s nuclear ambitions as the primary concern and believe incentives can coax compliance. The latter—among them Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—see the Islamic Republic itself as the threat and diplomacy as a dangerous illusion. Netanyahu has now made his stance unmistakable: this is not about non-proliferation; it’s about removing Iran’s leadership.

Netanyahu’s war of attrition

Although Israel described its airstrikes as targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, the true focus was Iran’s military leadership. The killing of IRGC commanders and top nuclear scientists revealed a strategy aimed at destabilising the regime from within. Netanyahu told Fox News that regime change was a plausible outcome, and he openly declared the Iranian government “very weak.” This aligns with a longstanding Israeli position: that a nuclear deal might work too well, removing sanctions and bolstering Tehran. Netanyahu’s rhetoric about Iran producing enough uranium for “nine bombs” lacks foundation—IAEA reports confirm enrichment remains capped at 60%, below weapons-grade.

The nuclear narrative unravels

Despite Israeli claims, Iran’s main nuclear sites—like the underground Fordow facility—remain operational. Only minor above-ground facilities at Natanz were hit. The attack appears to have prioritised optics over actual rollback of Iran’s programme. If full-scale dismantlement was the aim, it would have required U.S. involvement and heavier ordnance.

Indeed, Trump allegedly vetoed a plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, a line Washington is reluctant to cross—at least for now. Meanwhile, Iran's notification of a third underground site signals a pivot toward hardline nuclear policy.

A dangerous precedent

Should regime change fail, the risk escalates. Iran may follow North Korea’s model: withdrawing from the NPT and pursuing a bomb. Support from China and Russia will likely block meaningful sanctions. The nuclear “doves” in Iran—those who once argued against weaponisation—may now be sidelined, or worse.

If Netanyahu’s gambit fails to topple the regime, the strike is likely to accelerate the very outcome Israel seeks to prevent.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇻🇳 🇧🇷 Vietnam joins BRICS as 10th partner in push for global south alignment: Vietnam has officially become a "partner country" of BRICS, joining nine others in the bloc’s expanded engagement framework. Brazil, which holds the 2025 BRICS presidency, welcomed Hanoi’s admission, highlighting Vietnam’s commitment to South-South cooperation and a more inclusive global order. The partner status, introduced at the 2024 Kazan summit, allows Vietnam to take part in BRICS discussions and summits, marking a significant step in its foreign policy diversification. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh’s participation in last year’s BRICS+ summit underscored Vietnam’s strategic ambition to deepen ties beyond traditional Western alliances, as BRICS continues its expansion to reflect shifting global power dynamics.

2️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iraqi Kata'ib Hizbollah threatens U.S. with regional attacks if it intervenes in Iran-Israel conflict: Iraq’s Kata'ib Hizbollah issued a warning to Washington on Sunday, threatening retaliation against U.S. forces if it intervenes in the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. The group’s leader, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, demanded the closure of the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and warned that American bases across the region would be targeted if hostilities expand. He called on the Iraqi government to prevent further escalation and asserted that U.S. presence now posed a direct threat to Iraq’s stability. His comments follow Iranian accusations of U.S. complicity in Israel’s recent airstrikes. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Iraq to block U.S. operations from its territory. In response, Baghdad condemned violations of its airspace and called on Washington to stop Israeli aircraft from conducting further attacks via Iraq.