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📰 Gaza ceasefire collapses

📰 Gaza ceasefire collapses

and Erdoğan’s rival blocked

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 19, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, prospects for a conditional ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia emerge, but violence intensifies in both Myanmar and Gaza, while the Angola-led peace talks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo stall.

Meanwhile, a key opponent of Erdoğan is barred from Türkiye’s elections, and tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea continue to escalate, raising fears of renewed conflict.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Hundreds killed in Gaza as Israel sabotages ceasefire: Israel has shattered the ceasefire with Hamas, launching heavy airstrikes on Gaza that killed over 400 people overnight. The renewed offensive, welcomed by Israeli prime minister Netanyahu’s far-right allies, strengthens his fragile coalition amid mounting political pressure. Critics argue that his decision is driven by domestic political considerations rather than strategic necessity, as he faces backlash over security failures and ongoing corruption scandals. Meanwhile, hostage families have condemned the escalation, warning it endangers the lives of captives still held in Gaza, while analysts caution that the offensive risks further destabilizing the ceasefire with Lebanon.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Kremlin agrees to halt airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for 30 days: Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to halt strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but only if Kyiv reciprocates, according to a Kremlin statement. However, in a lengthy call with U.S. President Donald Trump, Putin rejected a broader 30-day ceasefire, ensuring continued attacks on Ukrainian cities and ports. While the White House framed the agreement as a step toward peace, some U.S. officials privately warned that Putin appeared to be stalling while consolidating battlefield gains. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, while open to a halt on energy strikes, emphasized that Kyiv would not remain passive if Russia continued targeting critical infrastructure.

3️⃣ 🇦🇴 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Angola’s mediation efforts falter as Rwanda–DRC tensions escalate: The Rwanda–backed M23 militant group has pulled out of peace talks in Angola, reversing its earlier commitment to negotiations with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). The withdrawal follows the European Union’s decision to sanction M23 leaders and Rwandan military commanders. M23 spokesperson Lawrence Kanyuka accused international institutions of obstructing peace efforts, citing recent sanctions as a direct attempt to derail the talks. Meanwhile, a DRC delegation remains in Luanda for negotiations, despite President Félix Tshisekedi’s previous refusal to engage in direct dialogue with the rebels. The M23 offensive has intensified since early 2025, capturing key cities like Goma and Bukavu, displacing over seven million people, and escalating a long-running humanitarian crisis. The United Nations has accused Rwanda of deploying thousands of troops to support M23, while Kigali insists its forces are acting in self-defense.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇻 Human rights groups decry U.S.’ mass deportations to El Salvador: The U.S. deported over 250 suspected Venezuelan gang members to El Salvador, despite a federal judge’s order to halt the flights. Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele confirmed the arrival of 238 alleged members of Tren de Aragua and 23 MS-13 members, who were transferred to the country’s high-security “terrorism confinement centre” under a U.S.-funded agreement. The deportations followed Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act, a rarely used wartime law, prompting legal challenges from civil rights groups arguing it cannot be applied to non-state actors. Human rights organizations have condemned the move, citing concerns over due process and the lack of evidence proving those deported were involved in criminal activities.

5️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 Islamabad accuses Delhi of sponsoring militant groups in Balochistan: Pakistan’s military has accused India of backing militant groups in Balochistan following a deadly train hijacking that left 26 passengers dead. The attack, carried out by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), saw militants ambush a train in a remote area, taking hundreds of hostages before engaging in a prolonged standoff with security forces. Pakistan’s army spokesperson, Lt Gen Ahmad Sharif, blamed India for supporting the separatist group but provided no evidence, while India dismissed the claims as baseless. The attack, the first train hijacking by the BLA, has drawn international condemnation, with the UN Security Council calling for those responsible to be held accountable. Meanwhile, Pakistani officials have also suggested Afghan involvement, an allegation Kabul has denied, insisting the BLA has no presence within its borders.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 ENERGY DIPLOMACY: BALANCING SECURITY, GEOPOLITICS, AND THE SHIFT TO RENEWABLES

For decades, energy has been a powerful force in global diplomacy, shaping alliances and economic policies. Oil and gas continue to serve as leverage in international affairs, with key players like the U.S., Russia, China, and the EU influencing market dynamics. Russia’s strategic control of European gas supplies, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. energy independence efforts illustrate the intersection of energy policy and global stability. The 2022 Ukraine crisis highlighted how energy dependency can be weaponized, as Europe scrambled for alternatives when Russia restricted gas flows.

Sanctions and Energy Strategy

Sanctions on major oil producers, including Iran and Venezuela, have reshaped energy markets, pushing these nations toward new alliances. Iran deepened energy ties with China, while Venezuela sought partnerships with Russia to bypass Western restrictions. Meanwhile, Russia’s pivot to India and China for oil exports at discounted rates has disrupted traditional trade patterns. These shifts illustrate how energy policy can redefine global power structures.

The Renewable Energy Transition

The move towards renewables is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. China leads in solar panel production, battery storage, and electric vehicles, while the EU prioritizes green energy for strategic autonomy. However, the transition remains slow due to infrastructure limitations. Nations rich in critical minerals—such as lithium and cobalt—are emerging as key players, shifting energy dependencies away from fossil fuels.

As nations work to diversify energy sources amid intensifying geopolitical competition, the delicate balance between immediate energy demands and long-term sustainability will shape the future of global energy diplomacy.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇪🇷 TPLF fragments, risk of Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict grows: Tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray region escalated on March 11 when TPLF-aligned forces attacked the federally backed Tigray Interim Administration (TIA), seizing government offices, detaining officials, and clashing with civilians. Conflicting reports emerged on whether the violence reached Mekelle, though the TPLF later claimed control of parts of the region. The TIA had previously suspended high-ranking officers, warning of an impending coup, and has now called for international intervention. With Ethiopia and Eritrea mobilising on their respective sides of the border, renewed fighting in Tigray could push the delicate situation over the edge and ignite a broader regional war, which would be disastrous for local populations.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar’s rebel coalition weather aerial bombardment, advance on key Chin State military base: In western Myanmar’s Chin State, the Chin National Defence Force (CNDF) has waged a relentless battle against the junta, seizing most of its territory despite facing airstrikes and heavy bombardment. Formed in response to the 2021 coup, the CNDF’s ongoing offensive, “Mission Jerusalem,” has inflicted losses on both sides while encircling the last government-held stronghold in Falam. The resistance, now bolstered by 15 allied groups, remains outgunned but determined to overthrow the junta rather than merely claim ethnic territory. However, internal divisions between Chin factions threaten long-term unity, with rival groups debating governance structures and future power-sharing. While capturing Falam would mark a turning point, analysts warn that Myanmar’s broader pro-democracy struggle hinges on uniting its fragmented resistance, particularly in Bamar-majority regions still under military control.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 Key Erdogan rival blocked from Türkiye’s election: Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor and a leading challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, risks disqualification from Turkey’s next presidential race after Istanbul University revoked his degree. The cancellation, which undermines a constitutional eligibility requirement, follows mounting legal pressures, including multiple criminal investigations and a potential 23-year prison sentence. İmamoğlu has condemned the decision as politically motivated, accusing the government of using the judiciary to suppress opposition. While Erdoğan is constitutionally barred from seeking another term, his allies are pushing for either an early election or constitutional amendments to extend his rule, raising concerns over democratic backsliding.