Hello and welcome back.

Today, Russia issues a warning against any foreign military presence in Afghanistan, Madagascar’s president faces an ultimatum, and in Myanmar, aid cuts push Rohingya refugees to the brink of starvation as a military airstrike kills dozens in Chaung-U.

Our main story focuses on Argentina, where President Milei is bogged down by currency chaos and corruption ahead of the midterms.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Trump announces Gaza ceasefire: US President Donald Trump announced that both Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of his proposed Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange plan. The agreement, confirmed by mediator Qatar, includes the release of Israeli captives and Palestinian detainees, Israeli troop withdrawals to agreed positions, and the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 Macron to appoint new prime minister within the next 48 hours: President Emmanuel Macron is expected to name a new prime minister within two days after Sébastien Lecornu’s government collapsed just hours after being sworn in. Macron now faces the choice between appointing a centrist or a left-leaning premier to navigate a fractured parliament, which could either stabilise his presidency or further embolden Le Pen’s opposition bloc.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar military airstrike kills dozens at candlelight vigil in Chaung-U: At least 40 people were killed and many more injured when Myanmar’s military launched airstrikes on a candlelight vigil in Chaung-U township, where residents had gathered for a Buddhist festival and to protest junta rule.

4️⃣ 🇪🇨 Ecuador’s president Noboa survives alleged assassination attempt amid protests: Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa escaped unharmed after protesters attacked his motorcade during a visit to inaugurate a water treatment plant in Cañar. The attack comes amid escalating nationwide unrest over fuel price hikes and led Noboa to declare a state of emergency as drug cartels allegedly exploit the chaos to destabilise the country.

5️⃣ 🇸🇸 Deadly clashes in Abyei threaten South Sudan’s fragile ceasefire: At least 14 soldiers were killed and several wounded after a clash within South Sudan’s Unified VIP Protection Force erupted near the disputed Abyei region, the army confirmed. The UN has warned that South Sudan is edging toward renewed civil war, with rising violence, mass displacement, and reports of child recruitment by armed factions threatening the stability of Africa’s youngest nation.

Major Story

🇦🇷 MILEI BATTLES CURRENCY CHAOS AND CORRUPTION AHEAD OF ARGENTINA’S MIDTERMS

As Argentina hurtles toward its 26 October midterms, President Javier Milei finds himself fighting on multiple fronts. Once celebrated for taming runaway inflation, his libertarian reform drive now faces mounting strain amid a collapsing peso, widespread poverty, corruption scandals, and fading public enthusiasm. Seeking to revive his image, Milei appeared at a Buenos Aires concert on 6 October, jumping onstage in a leather jacket to project confidence and energy in a symbolic attempt to reignite his dwindling political momentum.

Economic turmoil and U.S. uncertainty

The peso’s sharp decline has forced Argentina’s central bank to burn through billions in reserves, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s vague pledge of U.S. support has failed to reassure investors. With the government reportedly spending up to $8 billion to stabilise the currency ahead of the vote, markets fear a deeper crisis once controls are lifted. If Milei’s coalition suffers major losses, his ambitious liberalisation agenda — including fiscal cuts and currency reforms — could collapse entirely.

Scandals and shifting public priorities

Three corruption scandals have further eroded Milei’s credibility, including allegations of kickbacks involving his sister and the resignation of a top candidate accused of accepting funds from a U.S.-indicted drug trafficker. While inflation has eased, voters’ focus has shifted toward unemployment and graft, blunting Milei’s central campaign message. Polls suggest his party still has a path to retain influence in Congress. Yet, without renewed confidence in his leadership and the economy, Milei risks watching his reformist revolution unravel.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇦🇫 Russia warns against foreign military presence in Afghanistan: Russia hosted Taliban officials in Moscow, using the occasion to warn against any renewed foreign military foothold in Afghanistan or neighbouring states. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov praised the Taliban’s efforts to combat the Islamic State and drug trafficking, while condemning Western sanctions and frozen Afghan assets as “hostile” acts. 

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Aid cuts leave Myanmar’s Rohingya on brink of starvation: In Myanmar’s Rakhine State, thousands of Rohingya families face starvation after U.S. aid funding was withdrawn, crippling the food supply in military-run internment camps. Once the world’s top humanitarian donor, Washington’s retreat has left entire communities without food, medicine, or hope.

3️⃣ 🇲🇬 President faces ultimatum as political unrest deepens in Madagascar: Madagascar’s President Andry Rajoelina has called for an open dialogue on press freedom and governance, but opposition groups have rejected the initiative as superficial amid ongoing repression. The youth-led collective has issued an ultimatum, demanding the dismissal of Senate President Richard Ravalomanana and investigations into a key presidential ally, threatening a nationwide strike if unmet.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics