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🕊️ A Gaza ceasefire imminent?

🕊️ A Gaza ceasefire imminent?

and Turkmenistan, Iran, and Iraq sign trilateral energy deal

Billy Robinson
July 05, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily!

In a tumultuous last 24 hours of international developments, Tunisia's arrest of opposition leader Lotfi Mraihi on money laundering charges has sparked concerns over democratic setbacks ahead of the October presidential election.

Meanwhile, escalating tensions in southern Lebanon were marked by an Israeli airstrike that killed senior Hizbollah commander Mohammad Naameh Nasser, underscoring regional instability.

In other news, UK voters go to the polls, a Gaza ceasefire may be edging closer, and Turkmenistan, Iraq, and Iran sign a significant trilateral energy deal.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇹🇳 Arrest of Tunisia’s opposition leader reignites fears of democratic backsliding: Lotfi Mraihi, head of Tunisia’s Republican Union Party and a presidential candidate for the October election, has been arrested on money laundering charges. The arrest occurred on Wednesday in Nabeul province, according to local media and politicians. A Tunis court spokesman stated that Mraihi, a prominent critic of President Kais Saied, is accused of money laundering and opening foreign bank accounts without central bank approval. Opposition parties claim Saied's government is pressuring the judiciary to target rivals ahead of the election. Although Saied has not officially declared his candidacy for the October 6 election, he is expected to seek a second term.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Airstrike kills high-profile Hizbollah commander in Tyre, South Lebanon: An Israeli strike on Wednesday in southern Lebanon killed senior Hizbollah commander Mohammad Naameh Nasser, also known as "Abu Naameh," amid escalating tensions. The attack near Tyre occurred as international diplomatic efforts seek to prevent a full-scale war between Hizbollah and Israel, potentially drawing in Iran. Nasser, head of Hizbollah's Aziz Unit, is the highest-ranking official killed since Taleb Sami Abdullah's death in a June 11 airstrike. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah praised Abdullah for his pivotal role since clashes began on October 8.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 Congolese soldiers sentenced to death for desertion, as M23 continue to make grounds: Twenty-five soldiers from the Democratic Republic of Congo's army have been sentenced to death for fleeing battles against the M23 rebels in the eastern part of the country. A military tribunal also convicted them of theft, as they looted goods from shops in a nearby village after abandoning their positions, an army spokesman said. Four soldiers' wives were acquitted of receiving the stolen goods. In March, the government lifted a 20-year moratorium on the death penalty, with the justice minister citing the need to remove "traitors" from the army.

4️⃣ 🇹🇲 🇮🇷 🇮🇶 Turkmenistan, Iran, and Iraq sign trilateral energy deal: Turkmenistan and Iran have agreed to a contract for the annual delivery of 10 billion cubic metres of Turkmen gas, which Iran will then transport to Iraq. Turkmenistan’s foreign ministry announced the deal but did not disclose its monetary value. Iranian companies will build a 77-mile pipeline to enhance Turkmenistan's delivery capacity. Turkmenistan aims to boost its gas supplies to Iran to 40 billion cubic metres annually. Last year, Iraq experienced disruptions in Iranian gas supplies, which constitute about 40% of its imports.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 UK elections underway: An exit poll by Ipsos, funded by the BBC, ITV, and Sky, indicates that Keir Starmer's Labour Party is set to win the UK general election with 410 seats. The poll suggests the Conservatives, in power for 14 years, will secure just 131 seats, their worst-ever showing, while the Liberal Democrats are projected to win 61 seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is predicted to drop to 10 seats from 48 in the previous election.

Major Story

🇵🇸 🇮🇱 A GAZA CEASEFIRE IMMINENT?

The White House has called the latest Hamas ceasefire proposal for Gaza a "breakthrough," offering a potential framework for a hostage deal. However, they cautioned that challenging negotiations lie ahead for the agreement's implementation. A senior US official noted that the Biden administration received the Hamas offer a few days ago and reviewed it before a detailed, constructive 30-minute call between Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday. Netanyahu will meet with his security cabinet and send a negotiating team to Doha for talks with US, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators.

Israeli officials announced that the delegation for the Doha talks will be led by Mossad chief David Barnea. The White House expects the discussions to begin as early as Friday, noting that the Hamas proposal aligns with Biden’s three-stage peace plan from May 31, which Israel and the UN Security Council have endorsed.

The new Hamas response showed significant adjustments, prompting a more positive reaction from the White House. However, officials emphasised that the agreement is not yet finalised and considerable work remains. The main negotiation challenge has been transitioning from the first phase, which includes releasing hostages and detainees and a six-week truce.

The second phase involves releasing all remaining hostages and the deceased, ending hostilities, and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The third phase focuses on Gaza's reconstruction. Negotiations for the transition from phase one to two were to occur during a six-week truce, but Hamas wanted stronger guarantees for a permanent ceasefire.

Netanyahu expressed doubts, pledging to destroy the militia controlling Gaza. A senior US official noted a breakthrough but withheld details, mentioning Hamas had dropped resistance to conditions for a permanent ceasefire. Optimism was expressed for the upcoming Doha negotiations with Netanyahu's engagement.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇷 89 killed after migrant boat sinks off Mauritania: On Monday, July 1, a boat carrying migrants sank off the coast of Mauritania, resulting in nearly 90 deaths and dozens missing, according to the Mauritanian Information Agency and an official. The migrants were en route to Europe. The Mauritanian Coast Guard found 89 bodies and rescued nine survivors, including a 5-year-old girl, near the city of Ndiago. Survivors reported that the boat had departed from the Senegal-Gambia border with 170 passengers, leaving 72 unaccounted for. This incident highlights the dangers of the Atlantic migration route, where many Africans risk their lives to reach Europe in precarious vessels.