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📰 Gaza ceasefire talks collapse

📰 Gaza ceasefire talks collapse

and China tests Trump

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 15, 2025

Today, violence in the DRC and Sudan has sharply intensified. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Riyadh plans to settle Syria’s World Bank debt, and Israeli settlers have once again stormed the Al-Aqsa compound in occupied Jerusalem. In Asia, Beijing deepens its economic outreach to Southeast Asian nations.

Our lead story explores the Europe’s evolving defence strategy—balancing deterrence, integration, and the prospect of nuclear coordination.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇦🇺 🇹🇼 🇻🇳 🇺🇸 China tests Trump's resolve as Indo-Pacific tensions rise: In recent weeks, China has escalated its military presence across the Indo-Pacific, staging live-fire drills near Australia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, unveiling cyber-disruption tools, and testing amphibious landing barges aimed at pressuring Taipei. While these moves serve to assert dominance regionally, analysts suggest they also probe the resolve of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose focus has remained on tariffs rather than security. Although recent statements by U.S. officials condemn China’s actions, Trump himself has remained vague, fueling concern over a lack of coherent strategy. With tensions rising and uncertainty over U.S. commitment to allies like Taiwan, China may seek to exploit inconsistencies—possibly even angling for a grand bargain that trades geopolitical concessions for economic relief.

2️⃣ 🇩🇿 🇫🇷 Algeria expels 12 French embassy staff after arrest of Algerian consulate official in Paris: Algeria has given French diplomatic staff 48 hours to leave the country, escalating an already tense diplomatic rift with Paris. The expulsion follows the alleged abduction of Amir Boukhors, known online as Amir DZ, an outspoken critic of Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and political refugee in France. Boukhors, who says he was kidnapped near Paris by men posing as police—one reportedly linked to the Algerian consulate—has accused Algeria of orchestrating his brief detention. Bilateral relations have been strained since France backed Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, opposing Algerian-supported separatists. Paris also accuses Algiers of failing to repatriate nationals deemed security threats, threatening to cut visas in response. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot has warned of immediate retaliation if the expulsions proceed.

3️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇪🇬 Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo reach impasse: Hamas continues to insist that any ceasefire agreement must include a clear pathway to ending the war in Gaza. Despite this core disagreement, sources say the group’s Gaza-based leader, Khalil Al-Hayya, has indicated some flexibility on the number of hostages it would release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners if a truce is extended. Meanwhile, Israeli airstrikes have intensified—with local sources stating that they have been the most intense of the war—killing over 1,500 Palestinians since the ceasefire collapsed in March, devastating areas like Jabalia and Khan Younis, and prompting urgent mediation efforts led by Egypt and Qatar.

4️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Heavy fighting between M23 and FARDC, FDLR, and Wazalendo forces erupts in Goma: Renewed clashes in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have left at least 52 people dead, escalating tensions around Goma and undermining regional peace efforts. Fighting erupted between M23 rebels and Congolese government forces, supported by militias and Southern African troops, as both sides blamed each other for the surge in violence. The M23, which captured Goma earlier this year, claimed it was forced to act to safeguard civilians, while Congo’s government accused the group of targeting key infrastructure, including a hospital where one person was killed. Residents in Goma described a night of terror under heavy gunfire, raising fears that the long-running conflict—already displacing over 7 million people—could descend into full-scale war.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇺🇳 UAE-backed RSF seize densely populated Zamzam camp: In North Darfur, over 100 civilians were killed or injured during a Rapid Support Forces (RSF) assault on Umm Kadada, while the Sudan Liberation Movement accused RSF of killing 450 people in artillery strikes and ground attacks on Zamzam and Abushok displacement camps. Tens of thousands fled on foot to Al-Fasher, which is struggling to absorb the displaced amid shortages of food, water, and shelter. RSF claimed control of Zamzam camp, condemned by humanitarian groups who cited the killing of medical staff, including the entire team of the last hospital in Zamzam, while the UN described the attacks as an unacceptable escalation. Meanwhile, El Fasher faces siege and airstrikes, with Sudanese officials warning of a continuing humanitarian catastrophe.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇷🇺 EUROPE’S DIPLOMACY VS. DETERRENCE CALCULUS

In light of the Trump administration's isolationist rhetoric, some European leaders have revived the idea of “Europeanising” France’s (and potentially the UK’s) nuclear arsenal. While NATO remains intact and the U.S. still deploys substantial military assets across Europe, fears of American disengagement are fuelling talk of a collective European deterrent. Proposals range from shared strategic planning to deploying French dual-capable aircraft in countries like Germany or Poland. However, these steps raise critical legal, political, and ethical questions—especially concerning who would control these weapons in a time of crisis.

The Fragile Logic of Nuclear Deterrence

The belief that nuclear deterrence ensures security is far from settled. History shows that nuclear states have still faced conventional attacks. Deterrence hinges on rational actors and credible threats—both shaky assumptions. Moreover, emerging technologies such as AI and hypersonic weapons threaten to further destabilize the delicate nuclear balance.

Strategic, Legal, and Political Costs

Extending France’s nuclear umbrella to EU partners risks legitimizing nuclear arms and undermines global non-proliferation efforts. It also raises troubling questions about decision-making: for example, would German taxpayers fund strategic weapons they can’t control? Additionally, such a move could violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty and contradict the principles of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.

Diplomacy Over Deterrence

Instead of developing a “Eurobomb,” EU leaders should prioritize defence integration and diplomatic engagement, writes Toda Institute. European NATO members already outspend Russia on defence by a wide margin, yet lack coordination, specialisation, and shared procurement. The real threat is not insufficient firepower—but fragmented defence structures. A sustainable peace in Ukraine should include Russia within a revamped collective security framework, reducing the need for further military expansion. In this context, efficiency and diplomacy are wiser investments than nuclear ambition.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇸🇾 Riyadh plans to pay off Syria’s world bank debts: Saudi Arabia is preparing to settle Syria’s outstanding debt to the World Bank, according to three sources familiar with the plan, in a move that could unlock vital reconstruction funds and support for Syria’s collapsing public sector. This would mark the kingdom’s first known financial assistance to Damascus since former president Bashar al-Assad was deposed by Islamist-led forces last year. The $15 million arrears currently block World Bank aid, but with Syria facing a foreign currency crisis, a previous plan to use frozen assets failed. The move signals growing Gulf backing for Syria, following Qatar’s recent plan—reportedly approved by Washington—to supply gas via Jordan. World Bank funding would target power grid rehabilitation and civil service salaries, though tough U.S. sanctions remain a major obstacle to broader international engagement.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli settlers storm al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem: Hundreds of Israeli settlers entered the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in occupied East Jerusalem, performing religious rituals during the Jewish holiday of Passover—actions that sparked widespread condemnation. According to the Islamic Endowments Department, 765 settlers entered through the Al-Mugharbah Gate under heavy security provided by Israeli forces, with the presence of lawmakers and religious figures. Although non-Muslims may visit the site under longstanding arrangements, conducting religious ceremonies there violates the status quo. The incident follows repeated settler incursions, with over 13,000 settlers reported to have visited the compound so far in 2025, often accompanied by Israeli forces that also restrict Muslim access and conduct frequent raids.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇰🇭 🇻🇳 Beijing pursues enhanced south-east Asia economic cooperation: Chinese President Xi Jinping has begun a high-stakes diplomatic visit to Vietnam, launching a regional tour aimed at reinforcing ties with Southeast Asian nations amid intensifying trade tensions with the United States. Following his stop in Hanoi, Xi will travel to Malaysia and Cambodia, with Beijing expected to position itself as a dependable economic partner—contrasting U.S. tariff volatility that has unsettled the region’s export-driven economies. China is expected to ink a series of agreements with Vietnam, potentially including railway investments, while also calling on Washington to revoke its 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Xi’s visit underscores a regional balancing act: Southeast Asian nations remain economically linked to China, yet continue to rely on U.S. trade and security support in response to Beijing’s growing influence.