Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Gaza enters full famine, says UN

📰 Gaza enters full famine, says UN

and study reveals sanctions as silent killers

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 30, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In Latin America, former Colombian president Álvaro Uribe has been convicted in a landmark witness‑tampering trial, while Nicolás Maduro tightens his grip on Venezuela as the opposition splinters and the United States eases sanctions. In the Middle East, former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signals a 2028 comeback bid amid uncertainty over his eligibility.

Our lead story examines the global human cost of sanctions, spotlighting new research published in The Lancet revealing their devastating toll on civilian life.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Worst case scenario of famine now unfolding in Gaza says UN: Gaza has now entered full famine, according to the World Food Programme (WFP), with food security and nutrition indicators surpassing all famine thresholds. More than 500,000 people are enduring famine conditions, while the rest of the population faces emergency hunger. Acute malnutrition among children under five has quadrupled in Gaza City, and health services have largely collapsed, leaving infants without life-saving treatment. WFP and other UN agencies warn that starvation is being driven by Israel’s intentional blocked humanitarian access, destroyed local food systems, and the breakdown of essential services. They are calling for an immediate ceasefire, unrestricted aid flows, and urgent efforts to restore local food production to avert further mass deaths and the deepening of a catastrophic humanitarian crisis.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Trump issues new ceasefire deadline as Russian strikes kill 25 in Ukraine: Russia launched its deadliest overnight assault in months on Tuesday, killing at least 25 people, in strikes across Ukraine. The attack coincided with U.S. President Donald Trump cutting his previous 50‑day deadline for Russian progress toward ending the war to “10 or 12 days,” warning of new tariffs if Moscow fails to act. Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the bombardment, calling for “truly painful” sanctions to force Russia to stop the killings. A prison in Bilenke suffered a direct hit, leaving dozens wounded, while a hospital strike killed a young mother‑to‑be. The UN said targeting prisoners could constitute a serious breach of international law, as Ukraine hopes Trump’s sharper tone will be matched by concrete measures.

3️⃣ 🇨🇴 Uribe convicted in historic Colombian trial over witness tampering: Former Colombian President Álvaro Uribe was convicted on Monday of witness manipulation and bribery, the first criminal conviction of a former head of state in the country’s history. He could face up to 12 years in prison, though his legal team plans to appeal; a final Supreme Court decision could take years. The verdict revives scrutiny of Uribe’s ties to right-wing paramilitaries, which terrorised civilians during Colombia’s civil conflict while maintaining deep connections to political elites. Intercepted calls presented in court captured Uribe’s lawyers coordinating bribes for former AUC members Juan Guillermo Monsalve and Pablo Hernán Sierra, who accused the Uribe family of facilitating AUC operations in the early 2000s. Uribe, who led a U.S.-backed military offensive against guerrillas between 2002 and 2010, remains a deeply polarising figure. Supporters, including U.S. Senator Marco Rubio, denounced the trial as politically motivated, while victims’ advocates hailed the conviction as a landmark step toward accountability for elite collusion with paramilitary violence.

4️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇵🇸 Starmer floats conditional Palestinian recognition amid Gaza genocide: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is preparing to unveil a plan for recognising a Palestinian state, under mounting pressure from Labour MPs and cabinet ministers over Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza. The proposal, expected after an emergency cabinet meeting on Tuesday, would condition recognition on a Gaza ceasefire and the release of Israeli captives. Rather than affirming a basic right, Starmer’s plan effectively makes Palestinian statehood conditional on concessions in the midst of Israel’s assault. In doing so, it treats Palestinian self‑determination as a bargaining chip, leveraged with those carrying out the very atrocities it seeks to end. The UK’s stance will be showcased at a UN conference on Palestinian statehood co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, where Foreign Secretary David Lammy will present London’s position. Critics argue that Starmer’s approach risks using Palestinian statehood as leverage with the very actors prosecuting the genocide in Gaza.

5️⃣ 🇻🇪 🇺🇸 Maduro tightens grip on Venezuela as opposition fractures and U.S. eases sanctions: One year after losing a presidential vote by all credible accounts, Nicolás Maduro has claimed another landslide—this time in Venezuela’s local elections. With the opposition divided and over 70% of voters abstaining, the government seized nearly all town halls, even in historic opposition bastions like Maracaibo. Machado’s faction urged a boycott while Maduro’s regime escalated repression, jailing critics and using fear to suppress dissent. Once-massive protests have dwindled to secretive gatherings. Although the U.S. officially denies Maduro’s legitimacy, the Trump administration quietly negotiated with him, granting Chevron permission to resume oil production in exchange for the release of U.S. detainees. The symbolic blacklisting of the “Cartel of the Suns” does little to mask Washington’s de facto recognition. Despite his electoral illegitimacy, it is Maduro—not the opposition—who remains firmly in control.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇳 SANCTIONS AS SILENT KILLERS: NEW STUDY REVEALS GLOBAL HUMAN COST

Are sanctions as lethal as armed conflict? A landmark study published in The Lancet suggests that this might be the case. It revealed that unilateral economic sanctions—most of them imposed by the United States—cause an estimated 564,000 deaths globally each year, roughly half of them children. While sanctions are often presented as a non-violent alternative to war, the research demonstrates that they inflict devastation comparable to armed conflict, particularly by collapsing health systems, triggering medicine shortages, and worsening childhood mortality.

The study’s analysis of 152 countries highlights that children under five are the most common victims, as preventable diseases become lethal when health infrastructure collapses. Economic contraction caused by sanctions has a cascading effect: import shortages cripple production, electricity reliability falters, hospitals lose capacity, and widespread unemployment undermines access to care.

Venezuela as a Case Study

Venezuela exemplifies the catastrophic consequences of sanctions. Following U.S. measures imposed from 2015, the country endured a 71% GDP collapse—the steepest economic contraction in modern history outside of active war, almost tripling the severity of the Great Depression. Hyperinflation persisted for years as sanctions cut Venezuela off from international finance, preventing the government from stabilising the economy despite vast oil reserves. According to the study, this financial isolation directly fueled spikes in mortality, especially among children dependent on otherwise treatable medical care.

A Global Pattern of Economic Violence

While Venezuela accounts for a significant share of excess deaths, the pattern extends worldwide. Around 25% of states—nearly 50 countries—face some form of sanctions, including Iran, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, and historically Haiti. Sanctions not only strangle national economies but also deter global institutions like the World Bank from engagement, even when sanctions are formally “targeted.” This amplifies humanitarian harm, creating a cycle of isolation and economic collapse that hits civilian populations hardest.

Why U.S. Sanctions Are the Deadliest

The study distinguishes between U.S., EU, and UN sanctions. UN measures, passed through the Security Council, often include humanitarian carve-outs and clear conditions for removal. By contrast, U.S. unilateral sanctions are harsher, more politicised, and often indefinite, excluding countries from the global financial system dominated by the dollar. This structural leverage makes U.S. sanctions disproportionately lethal, weaponising economic isolation to achieve geopolitical aims with minimal domestic accountability.

A Hidden Form of Warfare

Researchers and policy experts warn that the rising use of sanctions reflects their political convenience: they allow states, especially the U.S., to exert coercive power without the visibility or domestic costs of military intervention. Yet, as this study underscores, sanctions are not a “soft” alternative to war—they are a form of economic warfare with a staggering, largely invisible civilian death toll.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Houthis expand Red Sea threat to all firms trading with Israeli ports: Yemen’s Houthi forces announced a new phase of escalation targeting all vessels linked to firms that trade with Israel, regardless of their national origin. The group, which has attacked shipping since November 2023 in what it frames as support for Palestinians in Gaza, recently sank the Magic Seas and Eternity C—its first such attacks since December. Eleven Eternity C crew members remain in captivity, with four confirmed or presumed dead. Maritime security experts say the Houthis’ announcement signals a renewed threat to U.S.-linked ships and a broadening of their target criteria, which have historically been applied loosely. Traffic through the Red Sea and Suez Canal continues to decline, as shipowners divert to avoid the mounting risks amid rising global concern over Gaza.

2️⃣ 🇮🇷 Ahmadinejad eyes 2028 comeback amid doubts over eligibility: Former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005–13) is reportedly positioning himself for a 2028 election bid, despite being barred from the last three races. Critics, including ex-adviser Abdolreza Davari, allege he is waiting for President Masoud Pezeshkian’s Reformist government to falter before moving to reclaim power. Ahmadinejad’s supporters gathered in Tehran on July 10 in what his media called the “first nationwide meeting” of his organizational campaign, where he suggested he could win if allowed to run. Davari likened Ahmadinejad to Boris Yeltsin waiting for a Soviet-style collapse but argued he underestimates Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decisive role. Ahmadinejad’s populist, confrontational legacy—and history of strained ties with the political establishment—make his eligibility uncertain, even as he seeks to exploit political turbulence and revive his bid for relevance.