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📰 Georgia's ‘fraudulent’ election

📰 Georgia's ‘fraudulent’ election

and Taiwan arms deal sealed

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
October 29, 2024

Hello,

In Africa, Mozambique reels from political violence following the re-election of the long-serving Frelimo party. In Sudan, a statement from Khartoum's Foreign Ministry suggests a potential end to the Abraham Accords, following the announcement of an arms partnership with Tehran.

Meanwhile, geopolitical dynamics remain in the spotlight after the recent BRICS summit in Kazan, particularly the deepening ties between India and China. Today's primary focus is on Saudi Arabia's dilemma regarding its membership in BRICS.

Stay informed with these stories and more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇺 🇺🇸 U.S.-linked financial crisis threatens Cuba’s collapse: In recent days, Cuba's government has been scrambling to restore the national grid following widespread blackouts that have left the island struggling. The extended outages have severely affected daily life—spoiling food, disrupting water supplies, and making the heat unbearable. Even after a week, the power supply remains unstable, with frequent cuts lasting up to 20 hours a day. The crisis began on October 17 when non-essential workers were sent home to conserve power, but a shutdown of the ageing Antonio Guiteras power plant triggered a complete blackout. Officials acknowledge the grid’s poor state, attributing it to the U.S. trade embargo and waning support from traditional allies, Russia and Venezuela. Cuba is exploring solar energy with Chinese help, but financial issues and workforce shortages cast doubt on its success. Meanwhile, limited protests reflect the public’s exhaustion amid ongoing government crackdowns and media repression.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Sudan Foreign Ministry statement hints at the end of the Abraham Accords: Sudan has openly aligned with Iran against Israel, underscoring the significance of its new arms partnership with Tehran and signalling the collapse of the Abraham Accords for Khartoum. The Abraham Accords were a series of agreements brokered by the U.S. in 2020, aimed at normalising relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. In a statement, Sudan's Foreign Ministry denounced the Israeli strikes on Iran, calling them "a blatant violation of Iran's sovereignty, international law, and the UN Charter," while labelling them a "serious threat to international peace and stability." The ministry also condemned Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon and Syria, as well as its aggression toward the Palestinian people. This shift reflects a growing realignment in regional alliances amidst Israel’s ongoing onslaught.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 🇵🇸 Israeli strikes in Gaza, South Lebanon causing ‘unbearable’ conditions, says UN secretary general: Israeli airstrikes have reportedly resulted in around 70 civilian deaths in Gaza within the last day, as military operations intensify despite ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Israel has denied allegations of systematically displacing Palestinians or using food as a weapon, both of which violate international law. Civil defence workers struggle to access strike sites amid a tightening siege. Sweeping evacuation orders for the 400,000 people who the UN estimates still live there, the blockage of aid and food deliveries and the targeting of civilian infrastructure such as hospitals have led rights groups to accuse Israel of the war crime of seeking to forcibly displace the remaining population. Meanwhile, South Lebanon is facing severe Israeli carpet bombing campaigns, including the killing of six journalists who had provided their coordinates to avoid being targeted by the IDF—an act considered a war crime. Israel's military incursion into South Lebanon has resulted in significant casualties for the IDF, with local sources indicating that over 70 Israeli soldiers have been killed, alongside the destruction of 28 Merkava tanks.

4️⃣ 🇬🇪 🇷🇺 Early results suggest that Georgia’s ruling party wins parliamentary election: Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party has claimed victory in the parliamentary elections, securing over 54% of the vote with nearly all precincts counted, according to the electoral commission. This win translates to 89 seats in the 150-member parliament, enough to govern but insufficient for the sweeping constitutional changes the party seeks. Opposition groups, led by the Coalition for Change with 10.8% of the vote, have rejected the results, labelling them fraudulent and accusing the government of staging a "constitutional coup." The election, seen as pivotal for Georgia’s EU aspirations, was criticised by international observers for alleged voter intimidation and incidents of violence. Georgian Dream founder Bidzina Ivanishvili, who campaigned on keeping Georgia out of the Ukraine war, celebrated the victory amid claims of high support in rural areas. Pro-Western factions view the outcome as a setback for democracy and Georgia’s European integration.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇹🇼 🇨🇳 U.S. and Taiwan broker $2bn arms deal, Beijing vows ‘countermeasures’: China has pledged to take "countermeasures" against a $2 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan, condemning the deal as a threat to its sovereignty. On Friday, the Pentagon confirmed the sale, which includes advanced air defence systems like the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) used in Ukraine, pending Congressional approval. In response, China's foreign ministry expressed strong opposition and called on the U.S. to cease arming Taiwan to avoid destabilising the Taiwan Strait. The ministry warned that China would take all necessary actions to safeguard its territorial integrity. The U.S., bound by law to help Taiwan defend itself, emphasised that the deal supports regional stability and Taiwan's military modernization. Taiwan welcomed the sale, citing the proven effectiveness of NASAMS amid China’s ongoing military pressure. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to assert control.

Major Story

🇸🇦 🇷🇺 SAUDI ARABIA’S BRICS MEMBERSHIP DILEMMA

Saudi Arabia faces a strategic decision regarding formal BRICS membership following its invitation to the bloc’s October summit in Kazan. This invitation comes after BRICS expanded last year to include six new members—Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Despite Iran’s quick acceptance, Riyadh remains cautious, carefully weighing the benefits and risks of joining.

Potential Economic Gains

For Saudi Arabia, the economic advantages of BRICS are compelling. The enlarged bloc accounts for 45% of the global population and 28% of world GDP, presenting significant trade opportunities. Riyadh’s trade with core BRICS members already surpasses that with the United States, indicating a growing economic shift. Furthermore, BRICS membership could attract investment into Saudi projects aimed at diversifying the economy beyond oil. Countries like China and India have shown willingness to collaborate, especially on renewable energy and infrastructure initiatives.

Strengthening Energy and Geopolitical Ties

BRICS also includes Saudi Arabia’s key crude oil consumers, China and India, making the bloc a strategic venue for maintaining and expanding energy market influence. Additionally, aligning with Russia through BRICS could reinforce the Kingdom’s existing cooperation within OPEC+. On a geopolitical level, formal membership aligns with Riyadh’s strategy to diversify partnerships amid increasing global multipolarity.

Challenges and Political Risks

Despite the economic advantages, Riyadh remains cautious of the potential pitfalls of BRICS membership. Saudi Arabia maintains strong defence and security ties with the US, its primary arms supplier and long-standing partner. Aligning with BRICS, which includes Russia and China, could entangle the Kingdom in their ongoing geopolitical tensions with the West. Additionally, public sentiment poses a challenge, as polls indicate that many Saudis still prefer closer relations with the US.

A Pragmatic Path Forward

Saudi Arabia is likely to maintain a pragmatic stance, balancing its relationships with BRICS and Western allies. Rather than fully committing to formal membership, selective engagement in BRICS initiatives could allow Riyadh to maximise benefits while avoiding political entanglements. This strategic ambiguity offers Saudi Arabia flexibility to navigate evolving geopolitical landscapes while preserving its autonomy.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇿 Post-election violence continues in Mozambique: Tensions and political violence have escalated sharply since the 9 October presidential election, which both local and international observers reported as marred by irregularities. Last week, official results confirmed the victory of ruling Frelimo party candidate Daniel Chapo. Opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane, supported by the Podemos party, disputed the outcome, claiming the election was rigged and declaring himself the rightful winner. He also called for protests. On Saturday last week, gunmen killed Mondlane’s lawyer and a political aide in Maputo. Protests that followed faced police crackdowns, with security forces using live ammunition. International Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay urged all political leaders to endorse dialogue to prevent further escalation, while calling on Maputo to honour its commitment to investigate the killings.

2️⃣ 🇬🇭 🇼🇸 Former Ghana foreign minister appointed as Commonwealth secretary general: Ghana's Foreign Minister, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey, has been appointed as the new Commonwealth Secretary General at the group's summit in Samoa. Botchwey, who has held her ministerial post since 2017, has advocated for reparations for transatlantic slavery and colonialism—a stance shared by the other contenders for the position. Expressing her gratitude, she remarked on social media, “The work indeed lies ahead!” Her appointment came during a meeting dominated by discussions on reparatory justice and the climate crisis. Leaders acknowledged calls for dialogue on reparations for the slave trade, urging a “truthful and respectful conversation.” While the UK rejected an official apology or direct reparations, it hinted at potential support through institutional reforms and debt relief. Botchwey, a trained lawyer, has previously chaired ECOWAS’s council of ministers and led Ghana’s term on the UN Security Council.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 BRICS accelerates India and China’s growing rapport: At the 16th BRICS Summit, India and China agreed to disengage from their prolonged border standoff, seeking to ease tensions that have lingered since their deadly clash in the Galwan Valley in 2020. The conflict escalated as India, under Prime Minister Modi, deepened its ties with the U.S., aligning with Washington’s “China containment policy.” India’s decision to sign key defence agreements with the U.S. solidified this partnership but came at the cost of increased friction with China and diminishing regional influence. Despite India’s trade restrictions on Chinese goods, economic dependence on China remains strong, with trade between the two countries continuing to grow. Attempts to attract U.S. investment have largely fallen short, with major American companies exiting the Indian market. Additionally, India’s balancing act with Russia complicates its relations with the West, adding another layer of complexity to its foreign policy.