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📰 German government crumbles

📰 German government crumbles

and Putin congratulates Trump

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
November 09, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Malaysia has strengthened its defence with the acquisition of Kuwaiti Hornet fighter jets, while Myanmar's humanitarian crisis deepens amid the ongoing civil war. Meanwhile, Germany's government has dramatically collapsed, plunging the country into political uncertainty.

In the Middle East, Lebanon has lodged a complaint with the UN over Israel's September pager attacks, while Ireland has aligned with South Africa in its genocide case against Israel.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇲🇲 Myanmar facing ‘total economic collapse’: In Myanmar’s Rakhine state, nearly two million people are at risk of starvation within months due to severe conflict, trade blockades, and an impending economic collapse, a UN official has warned. Bordering Bangladesh, Rakhine has seen income drop sharply, rice production fall, and food prices soar amid military-imposed restrictions that have cut off essential supplies, according to UNDP research. Many residents now survive on just one meal per day, with some resorting to consuming rice bran, typically used as animal feed. Kanni Wignaraja, UN assistant secretary-general, described the situation as unprecedented in Myanmar, cautioning that if trends continue into 2025, the humanitarian crisis will deepen. UNDP reports show incomes for over half of Rakhine’s households have dropped to levels barely enough for rice, excluding other basic needs, as the war rages on.

2️⃣ 🇴🇲 🇮🇷 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 Oman’s growing diplomatic clout: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have adeptly managed relations with global powers amid an increasingly multipolar world, yet Oman stands out for its unique diplomatic neutrality. Oman’s role as a valued mediator—especially between the U.S. and Iran, or Saudi Arabia and Iran—has solidified its importance in the region, particularly as tensions with Israel and Iran intensify. While other GCC countries aim to maintain regional stability, Oman’s neutrality is unmatched, making it a trusted partner for dialogue rather than merely a go-between. Muscat’s impartiality continues under Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq and is reinforced by practical ties, including recent joint exercises with Iran, highlighting its focus on stability in the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s balanced foreign policy has strengthened its standing and exemplifies the GCC’s growing influence in Middle Eastern diplomacy.

3️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 U.S. issues $1.1bn in debt relief to Somalia: The U.S. has agreed to cancel over $1.1 billion of Somalia’s debt, representing about 25% of the nation’s remaining debt burden. This latest milestone is part of a series of debt relief efforts since Somalia began tackling its heavy financial liabilities, most of which accrued under the military rule of Siad Barre, which ended in the early 1990s. Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud described the relief as crucial, lifting a “burden of unsustainable debt” accumulated during years of instability. U.S. Ambassador Richard Riley celebrated the agreement, highlighting Somalia’s economic reforms. This debt relief, part of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, has reduced Somalia’s debt from 64% of GDP in 2018 to under 6% by 2023. While Somalia can now access more public financing, some private lenders remain cautious due to governance and stability concerns.

4️⃣ 🇲🇾 Malaysia’s significant defence upgrade: After seven years of negotiations and deliberations, the Malaysian military has reportedly finalised its acquisition of Kuwait’s coveted F/A-18C/D Hornets, a notable addition to its limited Royal Air Force fleet. Outbidding both Tunisia and the U.S. Marine Corps, Malaysia’s new fleet marks a step forward in its regional defence aspirations. Historically reliant on Russian equipment, Malaysia’s fleet includes Su-30 fighter jets, but recent purchases, such as 18 FA-50s from South Korea, reflect its shift toward diversified defence suppliers. Domestic production is also a priority, as highlighted by the Aerospace Industry Blueprint 2030, aimed at boosting local aerospace manufacturing. While some question the need for ageing Hornets, Malaysia’s defence upgrades signal its ambition to grow as a significant Southeast Asian power despite budget constraints and potential maintenance challenges.

5️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Putin congratulates Trump, hints at Ukraine talks: Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his victory in the US presidential election and expressed his willingness to engage in talks with him. Speaking in Sochi, Putin acknowledged Trump’s election and voiced interest in his proposal to end the war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Trump has pledged to resolve the conflict swiftly, though details of his plan remain unclear. Putin, while not outlining specific expectations for Trump’s second term, indicated that he was attentive to Trump’s desire to restore relations with Russia and address the Ukrainian crisis. When asked about his hopes for Trump’s presidency, Putin admitted uncertainty but noted that Trump’s approach was worth considering.

Major Story

🇩🇪 SCHOLZ SACKS FINANCE MINISTER: GERMANY’S GOVERNMENT COLLAPSES

Germany's "traffic light" coalition—an alliance of the Social Democrats (SPD), Greens, and Free Democrats (FDP)—has collapsed after three years. A fierce dispute over how to address a significant budget shortfall for 2024 has left Europe’s largest economy in political uncertainty.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leader of the FDP, after a prolonged standoff on budget strategy. Scholz advocated for increased spending funded by additional debt, largely due to economic pressures from the Ukraine war. Lindner, however, insisted on tax and spending cuts, which Scholz and the Greens argued would undermine social welfare, climate measures, and military support for Ukraine.

What’s Next?

With federal elections initially scheduled for late next year, these may now be moved to spring. Scholz has called for a confidence vote on January 15, though opposition leader Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is pushing for an earlier vote. Should Scholz lose, the Bundestag may be dissolved, requiring new elections within two months.

Following Lindner’s departure, the FDP withdrew its remaining ministers, leaving Scholz heading a fragile minority government. Such an arrangement would limit Germany’s ability to respond to critical international issues.

Germany’s Foreign Policy Challenges

The coalition’s 2021 formation already faced challenges, which Russia’s Ukraine invasion, energy crises, and inflation compounded. Recent Middle Eastern conflicts, including Germany's involvement in supporting Israel's actions in Gaza and Lebanon, have further strained the coalition. Germany has continued military support and diplomatic backing despite International Court of Justice findings suggesting a plausible case for genocide. These findings could have serious legal implications for Germany's foreign policy, especially as Europe attempts to realign its alliances.

Polls and Future Alliances

Polling places the conservative CDU/CSU at 30-34%, with the far-right AfD following at 16-19%. The SPD, Greens, and FDP are seeing waning support. If the FDP fails to meet the 5% parliamentary entry threshold, a CDU/CSU-SPD “grand coalition” appears increasingly likely.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇪 🇿🇦 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Ireland joins South Africa’s genocide case against Israel: In December, South Africa submitted a case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), asserting that Israel's actions in Gaza violate the 1948 UN Genocide Convention—a charge Israel denies. Countries including Spain, Bolivia, Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, Chile, and Libya have joined the case. Ireland also pledged support after South Africa’s submission, with Foreign Minister Martin emphasising Ireland’s commitment to international law and the ICJ’s accountability work. South Africa’s filing, containing over 750 pages of text and more than 4,000 pages of exhibits, claims evidence of “genocide” in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli attacks have killed 53 people and injured 161 in Lebanon in the past day, bringing total casualties since last October to 3,103 deaths and 13,856 injuries. UNESCO will meet on November 18 to discuss increased protection of Lebanon’s cultural heritage sites.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇺🇳 Lebanon files complaint to UN over Israel’s pager attacks: Lebanon has lodged a formal complaint with the UN’s International Labour Organization (ILO) accusing Israel of responsibility for a series of lethal pager explosions in September. Lebanese Labour Minister Mustafa Bayram filed the complaint on Tuesday in Geneva, describing the incident as “an outrageous assault on humanity, technology, and labour.” The explosions on September 23 allegedly targeted Hizbollah members who used the devices for communication. Israel has not responded to the accusations, though Bayram asserted that it’s “widely accepted internationally” that Israel was behind the attack. He also reported a higher casualty toll than initially thought, with “more than 4,000 civilians killed, injured, or maimed within minutes of the attack.”