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📰 Germany’s political earthquake

📰 Germany’s political earthquake

and Trump’s risky Russia play

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 24, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today brings critical escalations in conflict zones across Ukraine, Palestine’s West Bank, and the Great Lakes region, while Germany’s elections have yielded a decisive victory for Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc.

Meanwhile, South Africa advocates for global reform and debt relief, and Australia and New Zealand closely monitor Chinese naval activity in the Tasman Sea. Our main story examines Trump’s strategic calculus on Russia and China.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 German elections see resounding win for Christian Democrats, AfD: Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc, comprising the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU), secured a decisive win in Germany’s national election with 28.5% of the vote, while the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved a record 20.7%, shaking Europe’s political landscape. Merz, set to become Germany’s next chancellor, aims to swiftly form a government, likely in coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), after smaller parties like the Free Democrats (FDP) failed to enter parliament. Merz has distanced himself from former Chancellor Angela Merkel, adopting a harder stance on key issues and vowing to strengthen Europe’s autonomy following Donald Trump’s recent comments on Ukraine. Meanwhile, the SPD suffered its worst electoral performance in over a century, highlighting widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing government and signalling a shift in Germany’s political direction.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇺🇳 Tshisekedi announces plans for unity government, UNSC resolution pushes for cessation of hostilities: As pressure mounts for a resolution to the crisis in eastern Congo, President Felix Tshisekedi announced plans to initiate talks on forming a unity government. The M23 rebel group, reportedly backed by 4,000 Rwandan troops, has escalated its insurgency, seizing Goma and Bukavu—two major cities—killing an estimated 3,000 people. Tshisekedi, addressing his ruling coalition, insisted he had “lost the battle, not the war” and vowed to engage all political factions, including the opposition, though he provided no specifics. Meanwhile, the UN Security Council passed a resolution demanding M23’s withdrawal, while regional leaders continue to push for negotiations, which Tshisekedi has previously rejected, arguing the rebels serve as a Rwandan proxy force.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Witkoff refers to the 2022 Istanbul protocols, Russia launches record number of drone strikes: U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff recently described the 2022 Istanbul protocols as a potential framework for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, though such terms would amount to Ukraine's surrender. Draft agreements from those negotiations indicated Ukraine would abandon its NATO ambitions, adopt neutrality, and limit its military—concessions that Ukrainian President Zelenskyy firmly rejected. Meanwhile, Ukraine has expanded domestic military production, manufacturing millions of drones and developing advanced defense systems with Western support. As the war continues, Russia has increased drone and missile attacks on Ukraine, relying on arms from Iran and North Korea. Ukrainian forces have responded with long-range drone strikes deep into Russian territory. Despite mounting pressure, Ukraine remains committed to resisting Russian demands and securing security guarantees from NATO and Western allies, reinforcing its stance against a settlement based on the Istanbul talks.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli troops will continue operating in West Bank for another year, says Katz: Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that troops would remain newly seized parts of the occupied West Bank for at least a year, preventing tens of thousands of displaced Palestinians from returning. Since 21 January, Israeli forces have conducted an extensive assault across the northern West Bank, escalating operations with tanks near Jenin for the first time since 2002. The raids have killed dozens, including children, and forced over 40,000 people to flee, according to the UN. Meanwhile, Netanyahu faces pressure from far-right coalition partners to intensify military action, as Israeli settlers continue attacks in Palestinian areas. More than 800 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since October 2023.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF breaks almost two–year RSF siege on El-Obeid, North Kordofan: The Sudanese army (SAF) announced on Sunday that it had broken the nearly two-year blockade imposed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan, linking its advancing troops from White Nile state with forces already inside the city. The army’s mobile “Al-Sayyad” unit, largely drawn from the 16th Infantry Division in South Darfur, seized Um Rawaba and Al-Rahd before pushing through the Kordofan Mountains to reach El-Obeid. Brigadier Nabil Abdallah confirmed the end of the 22-month siege, as residents celebrated the breakthrough. With its strategic position connecting Kordofan and Darfur to Khartoum, El-Obeid is now expected to serve as a major military base for Sudanese forces operating in western Sudan.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 TRUMP’S FOREIGN POLICY SHIFT: RUSSIA, CHINA, AND THE RISKS OF REALIGNMENT

Donald Trump’s return to the White House signals a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy, particularly in its approach to Russia. Unlike previous administrations that maintained a confrontational stance, Trump’s strategy prioritizes easing tensions with Moscow to counterbalance China’s growing influence. This recalibration assumes that isolating Russia pushes it further into China’s orbit, strengthening a strategic partnership that threatens U.S. global dominance. However, the feasibility and long-term implications of this approach remain highly uncertain.

Russia-China Relations: A Fracture or an Illusion?

For decades, U.S. foreign policy sought to contain both Russia and China, but Trump’s administration appears to prioritize Beijing as the primary threat. The aim is to weaken the Sino-Russian partnership by offering Moscow economic and diplomatic incentives. However, unlike Cold War-era ideological rifts, today’s Russia-China relationship is built on mutual opposition to Western influence. Their cooperation in energy, trade, and military coordination makes it unlikely that Moscow will abandon Beijing in exchange for uncertain U.S. concessions.

Implications for NATO and European Security

Trump’s strategy risks undermining transatlantic security, as reducing military aid to Ukraine and pressuring NATO allies to shoulder more defense responsibilities is likely to embolden Moscow. If European nations perceive the U.S. as unreliable, they may pursue independent security strategies, weakening the cohesion that has underpinned Western alliances since World War II.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇳🇿 🇨🇳 Australia and New Zealand monitor Chinese navy in Tasman sea: China’s navy carried out a second live-fire exercise in international waters, following a drill that forced airlines to reroute flights between Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand’s Defence Force confirmed that a Chinese warship fired live rounds near the country on Saturday, after providing radio notice in accordance with international law. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese defended China’s right to conduct the exercises but acknowledged that the vessels had given limited advance warning.

2️⃣ 🇿🇦 South Africa pushes for global reform and debt relief: As South Africa assumes the G20 presidency, it seeks to amplify African perspectives and drive solutions to pressing global issues, from economic instability to climate change. President Cyril Ramaphosa has emphasized the need for stronger public-private collaboration and multilateral institutions to tackle these challenges effectively. To this end, South Africa has proposed three G20 task forces focused on inclusive economic growth, food security, and technological innovation for sustainable development. Additionally, South Africa aims to address the debt crisis affecting the Global South by proposing a Cost of Capital Commission to assess factors driving high borrowing costs in developing economies. Institutional reform, particularly in debt restructuring and financial governance, is crucial to creating long-term economic stability.