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📰 Greenland rejects Trump

📰 Greenland rejects Trump

and AUKUS under pressure

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 31, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, Greenland firmly rejects Trump’s renewed push for annexation, Indonesia’s Prabowo faces backlash over unilateral budget cuts that cast doubt on his leadership, and China and the EU hold talks on ensuring balanced market access in bilateral trade. Meanwhile, Trump warns of bombings and secondary sanctions on Iran if nuclear negotiations fail.

Our main story explores the formation of Syria’s new transitional government under interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Hamas agrees to tentative ceasefire proposal: A senior Hamas official announced the group’s acceptance of a new ceasefire proposal brokered by international mediators, but firmly rejected any plan that would hand control of Gaza to an external or Israeli-aligned entity. Khalil al-Hayya accused Israel of violating previous agreements, escalating attacks, and stalling negotiations to prolong the conflict for political gain. He affirmed Hamas’s commitment to resistance and refusal to disarm, vowing not to allow displacement or foreign-imposed rule. Al-Hayya also highlighted efforts to build a national unity government, supported by other Palestinian factions and regional powers, and noted progress toward forming an interim committee to govern Gaza pending a final agreement.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇺🇸 Australia should persist with AUKUS, says former defence chief: Former Australian ambassador Dennis Richardson has argued that despite growing concerns, Australia must stay the course on the AUKUS submarine deal, even as the U.S. becomes “less reliable and more demanding” under Donald Trump’s second term. Speaking at a security conference in Canberra, Richardson warned that backing out of the $368 billion pact would undo years of strategic planning and signal indecision. Although the U.S. may struggle to fulfil its commitment to supply nuclear submarines—given shortfalls in its own fleet—he contended the risks are outweighed by the long-term benefits. Nuclear submarines, he said, remain critical to Australia’s defence in an increasingly challenging strategic environment.

3️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇨🇳 🇦🇹 Malaysia stands to benefit from China-U.S. tech rivalry: Austrian tech firm AT&S has pivoted its manufacturing strategy away from China, investing €1.7 billion in a new facility in Malaysia to diversify its supply chain amid global tensions. The plant, which opened in early 2024, reflects growing industry confidence in Malaysia’s strategic neutrality, connectivity, and semiconductor ecosystem. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has championed AI and chip manufacturing as drivers of economic growth, attracting major investments from tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon. However, talent shortages and looming US tariffs under President Trump are prompting uncertainty. Despite this, AT&S and other firms remain optimistic about Malaysia’s long-term role in the global tech landscape.

4️⃣ 🇭🇺 🇮🇱 Hungary’s Orban to host Netanyahu despite ICC warrant: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to visit Hungary this week, defying an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant issued over war crimes in Gaza. Scheduled from Wednesday to Sunday, the trip includes a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who previously stated that Hungary would not enforce the ICC’s warrant. Despite Hungary’s obligations as an ICC member state, Orban’s stance underscores ongoing tensions between his government and the European Union over democratic norms. This marks Netanyahu’s second foreign trip since the warrant was announced, following a February visit to Washington to meet President Donald Trump.

5️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Trump threatens Iran with bombings and secondary tariffs if no nuclear deal is reached: U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened Iran with a range of punitive measures—from new sanctions and tariffs to potential military strikes—after Tehran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, rejected direct talks over its growing nuclear programme. Trump stated he would prefer a deal but warned of severe consequences if negotiations fail. Pezeshkian acknowledged receiving Trump’s proposal via a UAE delegation but insisted direct talks were off the table, though indirect dialogue remains possible. Tensions are set to escalate as Iran formally rebuffs U.S. outreach, while Washington insists that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon remains a top priority.

Major Story

🇸🇾 SYRIA FORMS TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT

Three months after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has unveiled Syria’s first transitional government, aiming to stabilise the country while navigating deep internal fractures. His appointment of Sheikh Osama al-Rifai as Grand Mufti symbolically restores religious authority to Damascus and seeks to build cross-sectarian legitimacy. Al-Sharaa has made overtures to Shia clerics while firmly opposing Iranian and Hizbollah influence—signalling an attempt to project inclusivity without foreign domination.

The five-year transitional government includes 22 ministers from across Syria’s ethnic and religious spectrum, including Kurds, Alawites, Christians, and Druze. However, political blocs are banned, and ministers serve independently. Notably, two former Assad officials have been included, and the cabinet has just one woman. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) did not take part in forming the cabinet but have since opened dialogue with al-Sharaa’s government regarding future integration and participation. Despite these efforts at inclusion, HTS retains control of the most powerful ministries—defence, interior, foreign affairs, and justice—prompting questions about the true extent of power-sharing.

While al-Sharaa’s government signals a step toward national reconstruction, its legitimacy will hinge on whether these early moves translate into broader consensus and stability, especially given the exclusion of key groups like the SDF and continued dominance of HTS. The road to a unified Syria remains long, and al-Sharaa’s balancing act will be tested as negotiations evolve and pressures—both domestic and international—intensify.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇱 🇩🇰 🇺🇸 Greenland rejects latest Trump threat: Greenland’s newly elected Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen firmly rejected U.S. President Donald Trump’s renewed remarks about acquiring the Arctic territory, stating, “The United States won’t get that. We determine our own future.” Trump, speaking to NBC, claimed the U.S. would “100%” obtain Greenland and did not rule out the use of force. Nielsen, sworn in on Friday as Greenland’s youngest leader, used his first press conference to call for unity amid growing foreign pressure. His comments came just before U.S. Vice President JD Vance arrived, sharply criticising Denmark’s governance of Greenland—a tone that Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen condemned as inappropriate for close allies.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 Prabowo’s unilateral budget cuts undermine confidence in his leadership: Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto began his term with bold promises to expand social programmes and elevate Indonesia’s global standing, especially in foreign policy—an area he considers his forte. Yet, just months into his presidency, he is facing mounting criticism. His surprise decision to cut the 2025 national budget by 8.5 percent—without consulting advisers or offering a legal justification—has alarmed regional governments and slashed funding to essential ministries, including those managing child welfare and disaster response. Despite his strongman image, Prabowo’s erratic policy moves, bloated Cabinet, and contradictory foreign engagements have raised serious questions about his leadership capacity.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 China, EU discuss symmetrical market openings in bilateral trade exchange: Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held talks with European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, focusing on ensuring fair trade and balanced market access between the EU and China. Sefcovic stressed the need for a "level playing field" in trade and investment, calling for reciprocal openness in both markets. The meeting, described by China's commerce ministry as candid and constructive, aimed to bridge ongoing trade disagreements. Amid growing uncertainty in global trade under President Trump, both sides signaled a willingness to seek common ground.