šŸ“° Gulf rivals compete in the Horn

and Milei faces armed forces resignation dilemma

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Turkish court annuls CHP’s Istanbul congress in a setback for the opposition, UN warns that half of Haiti’s gang members are children, and Ukrainian arms manufacturer Fire Point announces plans for a new facility in Denmark. 

Today’s lead story turns to the Caribbean, where Venezuela faces mounting military pressure amid renewed signs of US interventionism.

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Top 5 Stories

1ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡ØšŸ‡³ šŸ‡·šŸ‡ŗ šŸ‡°šŸ‡µ Xi stages military parade with Putin and Kim in show of authoritarian solidarity: China staged its largest-ever military parade in Tiananmen Square, with President Xi Jinping flanked by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in a striking display of authoritarian solidarity. Xi told the crowd that humanity faced a choice between ā€œpeace or war, dialogue or confrontation,ā€ vowing that China ā€œwill never be intimidated by bullies.ā€ The parade, marking the 80th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II, showcased new hypersonic missiles, stealth aircraft, and underwater drones aimed at signalling China’s readiness to challenge U.S. and allied power in the Pacific. Western leaders were absent, but Kim’s rare trip abroad and his meeting with Putin underscored deepening cooperation. Analysts say the spectacle was less commemoration than a message: Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang stand united against Western pressure.

2ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡øšŸ‡© With its rival government in Nyala, RSF pushes Sudan closer to partition: Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have declared a new government in Nyala, South Darfur, signalling a deeper slide toward partition after nearly two years of civil war. RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, presided over the swearing-in of a 15-member Presidential Council, naming himself president and appointing rebel leader Abdelaziz al-Hilu as deputy. Former transitional government member Mohamed Hassan al-Taishi was named prime minister. The move comes after heavy battlefield losses forced the RSF from Khartoum earlier this year, prompting efforts to broaden alliances, particularly with al-Hilu’s SPLM-North. While the RSF claims nationwide legitimacy, the rival Sudanese army retains international backing from the UN and Arab League. Nyala remains under airstrike threat, making the government largely symbolic. Analysts warn Sudan risks a drawn-out stalemate and de facto partition without urgent diplomatic breakthroughs.

3ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡¶šŸ‡¦ šŸ‡¦šŸ‡Ŗ šŸ‡øšŸ‡“ Gulf rivals compete for influence in the Horn: The Horn of Africa is again in the spotlight amid speculation that Washington may recognise Somaliland. While formal recognition remains unlikely, real shifts are unfolding. In June, Qatar hosted Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro for the first time, signalling a recalibration as Gulf states hedge against reliance on Washington. At the same time, Turkey has advanced offshore exploration while fuelling unrest in Somaliland’s contested regions. Doha’s invitation reflects frustration with Mogadishu’s instability and a desire to preserve influence as US lawmakers push closer to recognising Hargeisa. The UAE, backed by Israel, has already entrenched itself through port and defence projects, while Qatar clings to neutrality. With Trump’s transactional foreign policy, Somaliland may become a pivotal bargaining chip, one defined less by sovereignty than by ports, minerals, and security access.

4ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡®šŸ‡± šŸ‡±šŸ‡§ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡³ Israeli drones target UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon in one of most serious incidents since ceasefire: UNIFIL said Israeli drones dropped four grenades near its personnel while they were clearing roadblocks to a UN position close to the border. Though no one was injured, the force described it as ā€œone of the most serious attacksā€ on its mission since the November ceasefire that ended the 14-month Israel–Hizbollah war. The attack occurred despite UNIFIL informing the Israeli military in advance of its movements. The peacekeepers halted work after grenades landed as close as 20 metres from staff and vehicles. UNIFIL called the strike a grave breach of international law, stressing that Israel bears responsibility for the safety of UN forces. The incident comes just days after the UN Security Council voted to withdraw the mission next year under U.S. and Israeli pressure.

5ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡¦šŸ‡· Milei faces unprecedented exodus from Argentina’s armed forces: Argentina’s armed forces are facing their worst retention crisis in decades as rock-bottom wages drive mass resignations, particularly in the Navy. Despite recent pay rises, salaries remain near the poverty line—second-class seamen earn under 600,000 pesos a month, less than a ride-share driver makes in a week. Since July, 234 naval officers and NCOs have requested discharge, part of over 2,200 departures across all three branches this year. President Javier Milei’s austerity policies, combined with Defence Minister Luis Petri’s inability to stabilise military institutions, have deepened the crisis. Layoffs at the Navy Hospital and collapsing career prospects are compounding the exodus, draining elite units and research fields. Without urgent funding and reform, Argentina risks a lasting erosion of its defence capacity in an increasingly unstable world.

Major Story

šŸ‡»šŸ‡Ŗ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø TRUMP’S CARIBBEAN INTERVENTION: VENEZUELA FACES RISING MILITARY PRESSURE 

On 2 September, the Trump administration announced a ā€œlethal strikeā€ against an alleged drug-smuggling vessel in the Caribbean, killing eleven people. President Trump claimed the boat belonged to Tren de Aragua, while others in Washington pointed to the Cartel de los Soles, allegedly linked to Venezuelan President NicolĆ”s Maduro and his military allies. Details remain murky, but the attack marks a sharp departure from typical U.S. counter-narcotics operations, which rarely result in what legal experts have highlighted as extra-judicial killings.

This escalation follows weeks of intensifying rhetoric. U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi recently doubled the bounty on Maduro’s head to $50 million, calling him a ā€œnarco-terrorist.ā€ The Treasury also designated the Cartel de los Soles a global terrorist entity. Reports suggest Trump secretly authorised the Pentagon to use military force against certain Latin American cartels.

Maduro Under Fire

Venezuela has long been a transit hub for Colombian cocaine, but experts argue that ā€œCartel de los Solesā€ is less a formal cartel than a web of corruption within the armed forces. Nevertheless, Washington has charged Maduro and his allies with conspiring to ā€œfloodā€ the U.S. with drugs, pointing to high-profile cases such as the conviction of two nephews of Maduro’s wife in a cocaine smuggling scheme. 

Maduro has dismissed the charges as fabrications aimed at justifying intervention. On 1 September, he warned Trump against allowing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to ā€œstain [his] hands with blood.ā€ Meanwhile, Caracas has mobilised its militia and reinforced its coastlines, though analysts describe these moves as largely symbolic.

Divisions in the Hemisphere

The regional response underscores Latin America’s fault lines. Argentina, Paraguay, and Ecuador swiftly echoed U.S. claims, while neighbours such as Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico condemned the strike as interventionism. Colombian President Gustavo Petro has warned that any attack on Venezuela would destabilise the entire region, though fears linger in Caracas that Colombia could one day serve as a U.S. staging ground. Brazil, facing its own tensions with Washington, has emphasised non-intervention.

Washington’s Motives

The deployment of a large U.S. naval task force in the southern Caribbean suggests more than counter-narcotics. Some see echoes of 1989’s Operation Just Cause, which toppled Panama’s Manuel Noriega. Yet Venezuela is far larger, more unstable, and home to powerful armed groups. Trump’s reluctance to commit U.S. ground forces, coupled with ongoing oil negotiations with Caracas, points instead to gunboat diplomacy designed to fracture Maduro’s inner circle and disrupt illicit trade.

The Peril of Uncharted Outcomes

Be it regime change or bargaining leverage, Washington’s course carries profound risks and a clear breach of legal norms. Maduro could exploit U.S. pressure to rally support and justify repression, while any abrupt collapse of chavismo might plunge Venezuela into violent chaos. With no clear plan for a transition, the U.S. risks repeating the mistakes of past interventions.

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Other News

1ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡¹šŸ‡· Turkish court annuls CHP’s Istanbul congress in blow to opposition: A Turkish court has annulled the Istanbul provincial congress of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), citing procedural irregularities in its October 2023 vote. The ruling dismissed provincial chair Ozgur Celik and his team, installing an interim committee to oversee the branch. Critics denounced the move as part of a broader crackdown on the CHP, which has faced mounting legal and political pressure since gaining control of Istanbul and other key cities in 2019. The decision comes ahead of a separate Ankara ruling that could overturn the CHP’s 2023 national congress and reinstate former leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu. The case coincides with arrests of opposition mayors, including Istanbul’s Ekrem Imamoglu, a leading challenger to President Erdogan, prompting accusations of democratic backsliding and politically motivated prosecutions.

2ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡³ šŸ‡­šŸ‡¹ UN warns half of Haiti’s gang members are children: The United Nations has sounded the alarm over Haiti’s deepening crisis, reporting that children now make up nearly half of the country’s gang membership. UNICEF chief Catherine Russell described the figure as ā€œstaggering,ā€ noting that minors are being forced into combat, used as couriers, or exploited for labour. Child recruitment surged by 700 percent in early 2025 compared with the previous year, coinciding with a sharp rise in abuses: more than 2,000 grave violations against children were recorded in 2024 alone. Gang control now extends over 90 percent of Port-au-Prince, displacing 1.3 million people and crippling basic services. Despite a UN-backed Kenyan-led force and international pledges, funding and resources remain scarce, leaving Haiti trapped between spiralling violence and political paralysis.

3ļøāƒ£ šŸ‡©šŸ‡° šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡¦ Ukrainian firm Fire Point to open arms facility in Denmark: Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen announced that Ukrainian weapons producer Fire Point will establish a factory in Vojens, home to Denmark’s F-16 airbase. The initiative, described as ā€œa helping hand to Ukraine’s struggle for security,ā€ marks the first time a Ukrainian defense company moves operations into a NATO country. Fire Point, which manufactures drones and cruise missiles such as the Flamingo FP-5, will use the Danish facility primarily to produce rocket fuel, with operations expected to begin in December. The announcement, made at a Nordic-Baltic summit attended by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, underscores Kyiv’s push to expand arms production amid Russia’s war. Ukraine aims to manufacture half its own weaponry within six months, though officials warn of increased risk of Russian sabotage.

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