Hello and welcome back.

In Europe, landmark elections in Romania and Portugal reshape the political landscape, as the UK and EU convene a pivotal summit on defence and foreign policy. At the Arab League summit in Baghdad, UN Secretary-General António Guterres urged an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Today’s lead story examines the UN’s deepening age of austerity, marked by sweeping cuts to humanitarian aid and peacekeeping operations.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 IDF begins ‘Operation Gideon’s Chariots’ Gaza campaign: Israel has launched a sweeping ground invasion of Gaza, supported by heavy aerial bombardments, killing over 400 Palestinian people in just three days. Under “Operation Gideon’s Chariots,” Israeli forces are now operating in both northern and southern parts of the enclave—including Jabalia camp for the fifth time since October 2023. Prime Minister Netanyahu has signalled plans for a long-term military presence and the relocation of Gaza’s population, prompting fears of permanent occupation. Meanwhile, strikes on civilian areas—hospitals, shelters, and tents—have deepened the humanitarian crisis. Israel also aims to replace independent aid groups with a state-controlled “humanitarian zone” in southern Gaza, even as new ceasefire talks brokered in Qatar continue.

2️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia–Ukraine talks resume in Istanbul, but real progress remains distant: Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul for the first official talks in three years, a move reportedly initiated by President Putin and attended by mid-level Russian officials. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy dismissed the delegation as powerless and underscored that he only agreed to talks out of respect for US President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan. While both sides discussed a potential prisoner swap and ceasefire framework, Ukraine viewed Russia’s demands—including a proposed Ukrainian troop withdrawal from its own territory—as unacceptable. Experts and officials agree the talks served more symbolic than substantive purposes, with real negotiations unlikely before autumn, when economic strain or battlefield shifts might change Russia’s calculus. Until then, both sides appear committed to continued conflict rather than compromise.

3️⃣ 🇷🇴 🇪🇺 Pro-EU candidate emerges as surprise winner in Romanian presidential election: In a surprising upset, moderate independent Nicușor Dan was elected Romania’s president, defeating far-right populist George Simion by over eight points despite trailing in the first round. Dan, the mayor of Bucharest and a soft-spoken academic, prevailed with 53.8% of the vote, as 65% of the electorate turned out—the highest since 1996. Simion, known for his nationalist rhetoric and ‘Trumpian’ tactics, initially claimed victory but later conceded. Dan called the result a triumph for unity and democratic change, while acknowledging the deep divisions in Romanian society and urging supporters of his opponent to join in rebuilding trust.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇮🇶 PKK ceasefire ushers in fragile calm as Turkey eyes regional disarmament: Hostilities between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) have subsided in northern Iraq following the group’s announcement to end its armed struggle, bringing an informal ceasefire to a decades-long conflict. Security sources say Ankara has not officially declared a truce but is responding proportionally as PKK operations pause. While Turkey demands full disarmament and withdrawal from strongholds like Qandil and Metina, a broader regional plan is taking shape: integrating PKK-linked fighters in Syria into state forces, dismantling Iran-based PJAK units, and managing the few remaining militants in Turkey. The process may ease Abdullah Öcalan’s prison conditions and lead to legal reforms affecting Kurdish political prisoners, though Turkish officials insist verification of disarmament is a precondition for deeper concessions. The truce remains tentative but marks a potential turning point in a regional power recalibration.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 UK-EU summit could reset relations if it moves beyond defence: Today’s summit between UK and EU leaders marks a pivotal moment in post-Brexit relations, with security and defence cooperation topping the agenda. A new defence pact—widely expected—would formalise ad hoc coordination and offer a structured platform for joint planning, procurement, and long-term strategic alignment, especially in a world less anchored by US leadership. But the bigger opportunity lies in whether both sides are ready to coordinate more broadly on foreign policy, multilateral aid, and trade, areas where shared interests remain but institutional cohesion has weakened. Without deeper political will to align on global challenges, any defence pact risks becoming symbolic—valuable, but insufficient.

Major Story

🇺🇳 A SHRINKING UN IN AN AGE OF AUSTERITY

With the U.S. slashing funding and long-standing cash flow problems deepening, the UN faces a moment of reckoning. The Trump administration’s proposed budget zeroes out support for peacekeeping and curtails humanitarian funding, destabilising core operations. Secretary-General António Guterres has responded with the UN80 initiative—targeting institutional reform and cost-cutting ahead of the organization’s 80th anniversary. This includes major staffing reductions across the Secretariat’s peace and security departments. Yet while diplomats speak vaguely of doing "less with less," there remains little agreement on the UN’s revised strategic purpose.

What Should a Smaller UN Do?

UN member states remain divided: developing nations advocate for stronger action on debt and inequality, while wealthier states prioritise peace and rights. The Pact for the Future offered a non-binding roadmap, but avoided hard trade-offs. As financial cuts take hold and Guterres enters his final term, the question looms: what role should a diminished UN play? Successor candidates like Bachelet and Grossi will be pressed to articulate concrete visions, especially on conflict management and global norms.

The Crisis in Conflict Response

Budget cuts have already gutted humanitarian operations. Agencies like the World Food Programme face 40% reductions, slashing staff and scaling back aid in hotspots such as Gaza and Sudan. Peacekeeping is also under threat, despite recent lobbying by Washington to preserve some missions. The UN may turn to lighter, cheaper tools like mediation and early warning—but recent failures in Myanmar and Sudan show their limitations.

The Norms Battle Ahead

Beyond funding, Washington's shift on core principles—from territorial integrity to gender equality—further weakens the UN’s normative authority. While some countries may double down on multilateralism, others may exploit this moment to roll back global commitments. As such, real reform conversations must begin now—not just in General Assembly halls, but through strategic cross-bloc coordination.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇹 🇪🇺 Centre-right party wins Portugal’s election, support for far right surges: Portugal’s centre-right Democratic Alliance secured the most votes in Sunday’s snap election, winning 32 percent and 89 seats—well short of the 116 needed to govern outright. The far-right Chega party surged to tie the Socialist Party for second place, with both securing 58 seats. Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigned after overseeing the party’s worst result since 1987, following voter backlash over triggering an early election. With Chega ruled out as a coalition partner and relations frayed with the centre left, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro may struggle to form a stable government, leaving Portugal facing political uncertainty.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Damascus sets deadline for ‘small groups’ to join defence ministry: Syria’s interim authorities have given remaining armed factions 10 days to join the national defence ministry, marking a final push to unify military forces following the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra said most major factions—including groups from Daraa, Turkish-backed units, and former Islamist forces—have already integrated into the restructured military. The move follows the dissolution of the Assad-era army and the disbanding of all pre-existing militias, including Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), now part of the new order. Yet smaller holdouts, particularly those still dominant in Idlib and Damascus, pose challenges. Abu Qasra warned that legal action would follow any delay in compliance. As the government works to build a unified national army, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani also pressed for swift implementation of the Kurdish integration deal, warning that delays risk further instability.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇶 🇵🇸 Guterres calls for permanent Gaza ceasefire at Arab League summit: UN Secretary-General António Guterres, addressing leaders in Baghdad, called for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all prisoners, and unrestricted humanitarian aid. He condemned Israel’s collective punishment of Palestinians, warning that expanded ground operations would violate humanitarian principles. Guterres reaffirmed support for a two-state solution, rejecting annexation and forced displacement, and urged international backing for UNRWA. He also addressed Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, and Libya, urging respect for sovereignty, multilateral engagement, and sustained peace efforts. Emphasising the dire situation in Gaza, he said, “siege and starvation make a mockery of international law,” calling for the blockade’s immediate end.

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Book Shelf

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Prisoners of Geography

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