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📰 Hague Group gathers in Bogotá

📰 Hague Group gathers in Bogotá

and Quds force commander warns Baghdad

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 18, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

In today’s brief, German Chancellor Merz pushes for a UK–France–Germany trilateral pact on defence and migration; Iran’s Quds Force commander warns Iraq of imminent Israeli strikes and deepening institutional infiltration; and the UN Security Council renews the UNMHA mandate as Red Sea tensions rise and Yemen’s fragile ceasefire teeters.

Our top story focuses on Yemen, where the domestic order drifts toward fragmentation as the 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire masks deepening state collapse.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇨🇴 🇿🇦 🇮🇩 Hague Group announces arms embargo and legal action to challenge Israeli impunity in Gaza: A coalition of 12 countries, including South Africa, Colombia, Indonesia and Iraq, agreed on six concrete measures in Bogotá to hold Israel accountable for its conduct in Gaza. These include banning arms transfers, blocking transport of weapons, and reviewing public contracts tied to Israel’s occupation. The measures also call for universal jurisdiction to prosecute war crimes. Though only a fraction of the 30 summit attendees endorsed the plan, organisers set a September 20 deadline for others to join. Critics question the influence of smaller economies, but the initiative reflects a rising Global South demand for legal accountability. UN rapporteur Francesca Albanese hailed the summit as a turning point, declaring: “Palestine has already triggered a revolution, and you are part of it.”

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇹🇷 Israel prepares for rivalry with Turkey as regional power dynamics turn against Ankara: With Iran’s regional clout fading and Turkey rising, an emerging rivalry between Israel and Ankara appears inevitable. Echoing the post–Cold War shift that saw Israel abandon its ‘Periphery Doctrine’ to confront Iran, Tel Aviv now sees Turkey’s ascent as the next strategic threat. After years of countering Iran through sanctions, sabotage, and military escalation—successfully weakening the Axis of Resistance—Israel is turning its focus to Turkey, whose growing influence and NATO membership make it a more complex challenge. Though Iran’s hostility once went unheeded, Israel now prioritises dominance over all potential threats, regardless of intent. Turkey’s strong economy, Sunni leadership, and regional soft power give it advantages Iran lacked. But Israel’s strategy remains consistent: not to coexist through balance, but to achieve security through pre-emptive domination of emerging rivals.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Zelenskyy reshuffles cabinet as war fatigue and governance challenges set in: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a sweeping cabinet overhaul Thursday, naming Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine’s new prime minister and promoting key allies to strategic roles. The shakeup, including the merger of several ministries, is aimed at streamlining governance and boosting domestic arms production. However, experts warn that consolidating ministries risks inefficiency, bureaucratic paralysis, and corruption. While Zelenskyy frames the reshuffle as essential for cutting red tape and enhancing war efforts, critics see it as loyalty over competence. Svyrydenko, architect of recent U.S.-Ukraine economic deals, now leads a government under pressure to revive the economy, secure Western support, and reform institutions. Despite some capable appointments, the restructuring may delay urgent wartime functions, with observers calling for deeper merit-based reforms to restore public trust and improve governance outcomes.

4️⃣ 🇦🇫 🇵🇰 🇮🇷 🇷🇺 IS-Khorasan recalibrates global threat as local influence recedes: Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP), once focused on Afghanistan, is recalibrating its strategy as its influence wanes at home. Weakened by Taliban crackdowns since 2021, the group has intensified external attacks to retain relevance—striking in Iran and Russia with deadly results, while plotting less successful attempts in Europe and the U.S. Unlike the nationally focused Taliban, IS-KP adheres to ISIS’s globalist doctrine, attacking religious minorities and foreign civilians. As ISIS decentralises, IS-KP has become a key node, coordinating with other affiliates and exploiting online spaces. Curbing this transnational threat requires robust intelligence sharing, particularly with Türkiye, Pakistan, and Central Asian states, alongside engagement with the Taliban. The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS must adapt to these evolving dynamics and bolster international capacity to track financing, fighters, and smuggling networks.

5️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 Chancellor Merz pursues trilateral UK–France–Germany pact on defence and migration: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for a strategic trilateral alliance between Berlin, Paris, and London to confront illegal migration and deepen defence cooperation, declaring the UK “too important to exclude” despite his regret over Brexit. Speaking alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer following the signing of the Kensington Treaty—the first bilateral UK–Germany accord since WWII—Merz proposed expanding the recent UK–France migration agreement into a three-way pact. Starmer confirmed Germany will amend domestic law to enable action against Channel smuggling operations. The treaty outlines joint commitments on security, defence procurement, and cultural ties. While falling short of a military bloc, it marks a significant step toward core European coordination amid growing threats from Russia and uncertainty over U.S. engagement in NATO.

Major Story

🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 YEMEN DRIFTS TOWARD FRAGMENTATION AS CEASEFIRE MASKS STATE COLLAPSE

The 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire between the Houthi movement and Yemen’s internationally recognised government has largely held, but peace remains elusive. Beneath the surface, the country is fragmenting politically, economically, and territorially. The Houthis have tightened control over northern Yemen, claiming legitimacy and presenting themselves as heirs to the pre-republican imamate. Meanwhile, the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC)—a fragile coalition backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE—remains fractured, weakened by internal divisions and rival southern ambitions. The Southern Transitional Council (STC), aligned with the UAE, continues to pursue independence, expanding its control over key ports like Aden and Socotra. These rival agendas risk turning the ceasefire into a prelude to de facto partition.

Regional Conflict Fuels Internal Drift

The Iran–Israel conflict momentarily pulled Yemen back into the international spotlight, as the Houthis launched missile attacks toward Israel in solidarity with Gaza. However, the Houthis’ restrained role and quick resumption of strikes after the ceasefire suggest a shift toward more autonomous regional action, reflecting greater autonomy from Iran—especially following recent Israeli and U.S. strikes on Tehran’s military assets.

Houthi rhetoric framing their fight against Israel as resistance has also been used to mask deteriorating economic conditions and consolidate domestic legitimacy. Yet they remain contested both by tribal groups in the north and by southern actors—many of whom are also splintering. Saudi-backed Hadramaut factions, for instance, now challenge the UAE-aligned STC, exposing growing tensions between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

Political Paralysis and the Risk of Renewed War

Yemen now operates under parallel governance structures, with two central banks, diverging monetary policies, and competing currencies. The economic fragmentation reinforces political division, making reunification increasingly implausible. Meanwhile, Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is attempting a comeback, adding a further layer of insecurity in the south.

Diplomatic momentum has faltered. Trump’s recent informal deal with the Houthis—ending their attacks on U.S. naval assets—was a tactical pause, not a step toward resolution. Ongoing skirmishes near contested areas like Taiz, Marib, and Hodeidah suggest the ceasefire is fraying, while Israeli strikes continue to wreak devastation on local populations.

Neither Saudi Arabia nor the UAE appears ready to reignite full-scale war, wary of past Houthi reprisals and the economic risks such a conflict would pose. Yet both remain invested in weakening the group. Without consensus among Yemen’s external patrons—and with internal factions diverging—Yemen appears set on a path of slow disintegration and recurring instability, rather than durable peace or decisive war.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇾🇪 Security Council extends UNMHA mandate amid mounting Red Sea tensions and fragile Yemen ceasefire: The UN Security Council unanimously extended the mandate of the UN Mission to support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA) until 28 January 2026, reaffirming support for the 2018 Stockholm Agreement as Yemen’s fragile ceasefire comes under increasing strain. Resolution 2786 (2025) tasks the Secretary-General with reviewing the mission’s future by November, hinting at possible restructuring or even closure depending on ground developments. While hostilities remain contained, daily ceasefire violations exceed 100, with both Ansarullah (Houthi) and government-aligned forces escalating preparations. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have intensified, prompting global alarm. UNMHA’s access remains restricted, and damage to Hudaydah’s port infrastructure—vital for 70% of Yemen’s imports—has deepened the humanitarian crisis.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 Israel urges insurers to cover vessels as Houthi Red Sea attacks unsettle shipping market: Following successive Houthi attacks in early July that sank two Greek-operated vessels in the Red Sea, Israel has approached marine insurers to clarify war risk coverage for ships with even indirect links to the country. The incidents, the most intense since the Houthis began targeting shipping in November 2023, have raised fears of disrupted trade at Israeli ports. U.S. insurer Travelers had refused coverage for one ship days before its destruction, prompting broader market concerns. Analysts warn that shipowners may begin avoiding Israeli ports not due to strikes, but fear of insurance denial. The attacks, reportedly coordinated with Iran, coincided with Netanyahu’s U.S. visit. Though Israel has pressed Washington to resume strikes on the Houthis, the Biden administration remains reluctant amid an unwritten maritime truce.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇶 Quds force commander warns Iraq of imminent Israeli strikes and deepening infiltration: Iran’s Quds Force commander, Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, paid a brief visit to Baghdad on Tuesday amid fears of Israeli military escalation in Iraq. Meeting with top Iraqi officials and Iran-aligned faction leaders, Qaani warned of imminent Israeli attacks targeting over 300 sites, including camps, offices, and key figures. He urged Iraq to bolster internal security and counter suspected Israeli infiltration of state institutions. The visit followed discussions among militia leaders over recent drone strikes in Iraqi Kurdistan, which were widely denied. Tehran fears the conflict in Syria could spill into Iraq, with Israel using Iraqi territory as a launchpad to justify broader retaliation. Qaani’s warning reflects growing concern in both Tehran and Baghdad about rising instability and Israeli efforts to sow discord between Erbil and Baghdad.