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📰 Hezbollah hit hard

📰 Hezbollah hit hard

and Zelenskyy plans Russia move

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
September 18, 2024

Hello and welcome back,

In the past 24 hours, Africa has been rocked by an al-Qaeda-linked attack on Malian security forces, while the Americas saw Meta’s dramatic move to ban Russian state media networks, and Northern Mexico is in chaos following a violent cartel clash.

The day’s major headline comes from Lebanon, where Israel’s use of explosive communication pagers has resulted in at least nine deaths and over 3,000 injuries, escalating the region’s turmoil.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇪 Democracy suffers biggest global decline on record, says international institute for democracy and electoral assistance: A global decline in voter turnout and increasingly disputed election results are undermining the credibility of democratic processes, an intergovernmental watchdog warned on Tuesday. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA) reported that its sub-index for free and fair elections saw a record drop in 2023. According to the Stockholm-based group, 2023 marked the eighth consecutive year of declining democratic performance—the longest downward trend since records began in 1975. IDEA's Global State of Democracy index, which assesses over 100 variables in four key areas—representation, rights, rule of law, and participation—showed the worst decline in free and fair elections and parliamentary oversight. Government intimidation, electoral irregularities, foreign interference, disinformation, and the use of AI in campaigns were cited as growing threats. Voter turnout also fell to 55.5% in 2023, down from 65.2% in 2008. In nearly 20% of elections between 2020 and 2024, losing parties rejected results.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 Meta bans Russian state media networks: Meta, the parent company of Instagram and Facebook, is banning RT and other Russian state media outlets from its platforms, accusing them of conducting covert operations to sway social media users. The ban, announced Monday, will block the accounts on Instagram, Facebook, WhatsApp, and Threads globally in the coming days. "After careful consideration, we expanded enforcement against Russian state media outlets," Meta stated, adding that Rossiya Segodnya, RT, and affiliated entities are now banned for engaging in foreign interference. RT responded by accusing Meta of censorship. "They’re trying to shut down the flow of information," an RT spokesperson told Sky News, mockingly adding, "Western governments seem to be competing over who can crack down on RT the hardest." Rossiya Segodnya operates outlets like Sputnik and the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

3️⃣ 🇲🇱 Al-Qaeda targets Malian security forces: Al-Qaeda militants launched a rare attack in Mali's capital, Bamako, targeting an air base that houses the country’s military aircraft and Russian mercenaries, as well as a gendarme training school, on Tuesday. The assault was claimed by the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), which reported significant losses inflicted on the Malian military. This incident marks a significant escalation in the insurgency that has gripped rural Mali, as al-Qaeda attempts to extend its reach into urban areas. Footage showed the Malian army in control of the situation, with captured militants and seized weaponry. Despite the severity of the attack, Malian forces reportedly suffered no fatalities, though the extent of injuries is unclear. The assault prompted a temporary closure of Bamako’s civilian airport. Security expert Corinne Dufka emphasised that JNIM's strategic shift towards southwestern Mali, including the Bamako area, has strengthened its operational capabilities. Cooperation with Russian and Turkish forces has not yet been sufficient to curb the insurgents' adaptability.

4️⃣ 🇲🇽 Cartel clash shakes northern Mexico: At least 30 people have been killed in Mexico’s northern state of Sinaloa over the past two weeks as two factions of the powerful Sinaloa cartel continue to clash, authorities reported Tuesday. Defense Secretary Luis Cresencio Sandoval confirmed that the violence, which began on September 9, has claimed the lives of two military personnel, despite the deployment of over 2,000 security forces. The recent surge in violence followed the arrival of Joaquín Guzmán López, son of former cartel leader Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, in El Paso, Texas in July alongside cartel elder Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Zambada, arrested shortly after, claimed in a letter that he was abducted by Guzmán's son. A power struggle now seems to be unfolding between El Chapo’s sons, known as “the Chapitos,” and Zambada’s loyalists. Despite growing violence, President López Obrador has maintained his “hugs, not bullets” approach, which President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum plans to continue.

5️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Zelenskyy expected to present Russia de-escalation plan to UN general assembly: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, during his Kyiv visit, was briefed on Ukraine’s plan to pressure Russia into ending the war, according to U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is expected to present the plan at the UN General Assembly in New York. U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield described the strategy as viable. On the battlefield, Russian forces reportedly captured Ukrainsk in Ukraine's Donetsk region, according to Russian state media. Troops allegedly raised their flag on a mine ventilation shaft. Ukraine’s military did not confirm the capture, instead reporting continued Russian assaults in the area. Claims remain unverified due to war zone restrictions.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 ISRAEL PAGER ATTACK KILLS OVER 9, INJURES 3000 IN LEBANON

Background

Lebanese group Hizbollah has vowed to retaliate against Israel after a coordinated attack on its members across Lebanon resulted in the explosion of their communication pagers, killing at least nine people and injuring nearly 3,000. The incident occurred as tensions between Israel and Hizbollah escalated, with Israel announcing its intention to broaden its military objectives to include the Lebanese border following the Hamas attacks of October 7.

Lebanon's health minister, Firass Abiad, confirmed the casualties, including a 10-year-old girl, and said that more than 200 of the injured were in critical condition. This unprecedented attack follows a series of targeted assassinations by Israel against Hizbollah leaders.

The blasts, which targeted Hizbollah’s low-tech pager system to avoid mobile phone tracking, also wounded Iran's ambassador to Beirut, Mojtaba Amani. U.S. officials have been attempting to de-escalate tensions, as they fear Israel could launch a ground invasion of Lebanon, which could provoke Iran to retaliate further.

An expanding theatre

Lebanon’s information minister has condemned the explosions as an act of “Israeli aggression.” Hizbollah, which lost two fighters in the blasts, vowed a “just punishment” for Israel, and later reports confirmed the son of Hizbollah MP Ali Ammar was also among the dead. The attack extended to Syria, with Hizbollah fighters and Iranian Revolutionary Guards reportedly injured or killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and Saberin News.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said it was “too early to say” how the incident would affect Gaza ceasefire negotiations. The Israeli military held a situational assessment but did not issue new instructions to civilians, though local authorities were warned of potential escalation.

The attack is suspected to be retaliation for an alleged assassination attempt on a former Israeli defence official by Hizbollah, which Israel claimed to have foiled using a remotely detonated claymore mine. Hizbollah has not commented on the accusation.

Unprecedented security breach

A Hizbollah official described the recent pager explosions as the group's “biggest security breach” in nearly a year of conflict with Israel. Lebanon's health ministry placed hospitals on maximum alert and advised citizens to avoid wireless devices.

Hizbollah’s private communication network has been compromised, with suspicions of Israeli infiltration growing after recent targeted strikes on commanders. Yossi Melman, an Israeli intelligence expert, suggested the attack bore Mossad's hallmarks, involving possible malware or explosives in the pagers. He questioned the strategic impact of the breach.

The incident coincided with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s high-level security consultations, likely related to expanding military goals against Hizbollah along the northern frontier. This escalation occurs amid ongoing regional conflicts and a potential shake-up in Israeli leadership, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant opposing a large-scale Lebanon operation.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇫 Afghanistan's Taliban reopens Muscat embassy: Afghanistan's embassy in Oman has reopened, according to an official in Kabul, marking a further step toward the Taliban's growing acceptance among Gulf Arab countries. This follows the United Arab Emirates’ recent acceptance of a Taliban ambassador. The Taliban, who declared in July that they no longer recognize missions set up by the former Western-backed government, now control 39 diplomatic posts globally. Most countries, however, have yet to formally recognize the Taliban as Afghanistan's government. Zia Ahmad Takal, deputy spokesman for the Afghan Foreign Ministry, confirmed that operations resumed in Muscat on Sunday, though Omani authorities have not publicly commented. Takal noted that embassy activities will strengthen Afghanistan-Oman relations in political, economic, social, and religious spheres. Despite the Taliban's isolation from the West, Afghanistan's leadership has been strengthening bilateral ties with regional powers.