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📰 Hezbollah vows retribution

📰 Hezbollah vows retribution

and UAE arms Sudan rebels

Ross Crabtree
September 21, 2024

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

The Middle East dominates today’s headlines as Hizbollah's leader vows 'tough retribution' on Israel for recent communication device attacks, Germany suspends arms exports to Israel, and reports emerge of the UAE using the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group to smuggle weapons into war-torn Sudan.

In Asia, tensions in the South China Sea escalate with the U.S. decision to maintain a missile system in the Philippines.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇷🇺 United Arab Emirates funnelling weapons into Sudan via Wagner: The UAE has reportedly used Russia's Wagner Group to transport arms to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) amid the country’s ongoing civil war, according to experts and paramilitary sources. Wagner, a Kremlin-linked mercenary group, allegedly smuggled weapons via the Central African Republic (CAR) to the RSF, which is fighting the Sudanese army. Rebels in CAR claimed to have intercepted UAE-supplied arms destined for the RSF, seizing shipments and capturing Wagner mercenaries. Although weapons transfers reportedly continued until April 2024, recent diplomatic reports suggest Russia is shifting support toward the Sudanese armed forces (SAF). The Sudan conflict, which began in April last year, has resulted in over 150,000 deaths and displaced more than 10 million people. Both sides in the war are accused of atrocities, with UN investigators highlighting ethnic violence by the RSF in Darfur. Russia and the UAE deny involvement in the arms transfers, though UN experts have deemed previous allegations credible.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Hizbollah threatens ‘tough retribution’ after unprecedented wave of Israeli attacks: In a televised address on Thursday, Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah acknowledged the significant impact of recent attacks and vowed retribution against Israel "where it expects it and where it does not." He declared that Hizbollah would continue its fight until a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, stating, “The Lebanese front will not stop until the aggression on Gaza stops,” despite the heavy loss of life. This marked Nasrallah’s first speech since explosions in Lebanon killed at least 37 people and injured thousands, a crisis the UN Security Council is set to discuss today. Meanwhile, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that fighter jets had targeted around 100 sites in Lebanon—ostensibly poised to strike Israel—destroying roughly 1,000 rocket launching barrels. Casualties have been reported in northern Israel, where Hizbollah deployed anti tank missiles and drones.

3️⃣ 🇲🇱 Al-Qaeda affiliate attacks Bamako, killing ‘scores of people’: A jihadist attack in Mali's capital, Bamako, has raised concerns about the junta's ability to handle the 12-year insurgency. Though authorities confirmed fatalities, they withheld exact numbers. According to a security source, 77 were killed and 255 wounded. A confidential document indicated around 100 deaths, with 81 victims identified. Funerals for about 50 military police trainees took place on Thursday. Security forces arrested at least 15 suspects at the training camp. Islamic militants from Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), linked to al-Qaeda, targeted multiple locations, including an elite police training academy. The city's airport was temporarily shut down following the violence. Additionally, a World Food Programme (WFP) aircraft was damaged. It was used to transport aid workers and provide humanitarian assistance to remote regions of Mali.

4️⃣ 🇨🇴 Colombia-ELN peace talks suspended after deadly attack: Colombia suspended its peace talks with the National Liberation Army (ELN) on Wednesday after accusing the group of carrying out an attack that killed two soldiers and injured over 20 others. The government declared the peace process halted, stating that its continuation is contingent on the ELN showing a clear commitment to peace. This marks the most severe crisis in negotiations since President Gustavo Petro, Colombia’s first leftist leader, launched peace talks in November 2022 under his "total peace" policy. The ELN had ended its cease-fire with the government in August, but discussions were still ongoing. Founded in the 1960s by students and union leaders influenced by the Cuban Revolution, the ELN has about 6,000 fighters. It finances its operations through drug trafficking and illegal gold mining, and has been expanding into rural areas vacated by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) following the 2016 peace agreement.

5️⃣ 🇲🇶 Violent protests in Martinique linked to cost of living crisis: Authorities in Martinique—a Department of France, in the eastern Caribbean sea—have implemented a 9pm to 5am curfew in parts of the capital to curb violent protests sparked by the soaring cost of living. The unrest has resulted in injuries to at least 14 people, including 11 police officers, with some wounded by firearms. Social media footage revealed burning vehicles, damaged buildings, and riot police confronting demonstrators. The curfew—which will be in effect until 23 September—was imposed by the island's prefect, Jean-Christophe Bouvier, to safeguard residents and restore order. Protesters, however, argue that their actions were driven by authorities and businesses ignoring pleas to address rising living costs. Statistics highlight the cost of living in Martinique as significantly higher than in mainland France, with residents paying 30% to 42% more for food.

Major Story

🇱🇰 SRI LANKA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: A NATION AT A CROSSROADS, AMID ECONOMIC CRISIS

With a critical presidential election set for 21 September, Sri Lanka faces a turning point as millions endure severe economic hardship. President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in office since July 2022 after mass protests ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa, has implemented IMF-backed reforms, but relief for many trapped in poverty and debt remains distant.

Wickremesinghe’s rise was bolstered by support from the Rajapaksa family’s political party, a key factor enabling his sweeping economic reforms, though it has undermined his public standing. His administration’s aggressive response to dissent, including curbing protests and drafting tough media and security laws, has fueled dissatisfaction.

The country’s economic collapse in 2022 was triggered by years of mismanagement, worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic and policy blunders under Rajapaksa. A currency crisis led to crippling shortages of essentials, sparking nationwide protests. After Rajapaksa’s resignation, Wickremesinghe was tasked with stabilizing the economy. His austerity measures secured an IMF bailout in March 2023, bringing inflation down and restoring reserves. However, poverty rates have doubled since 2020, and the government’s anti-poverty programs have failed to meet many citizens' needs, particularly women and youth.

The president's austerity policies, seen as unfairly targeting lower-income Sri Lankans while sparing elites, have intensified public frustration. Wickremesinghe’s reliance on figures from the Rajapaksa era and the lack of action against corruption have deepened perceptions of injustice.

As the election nears, Wickremesinghe faces strong competition from Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power coalition. Both rivals have promised to renegotiate the IMF deal to ease the strain on citizens, though without offering detailed plans.

This election, expected to be a tight three-way race, will serve as a referendum on Wickremesinghe’s handling of the crisis. Whoever wins must focus on distributing the burdens of reform more fairly, addressing corruption, and tackling the systemic issues that led to the 2022 collapse.

According to International Crisis Group, Sri Lanka needs greater political transparency and accountability to ensure long-term success. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, reforming the military budget, and encouraging public debate on state liberalisation are vital steps. International creditors should also consider further debt relief, while the IMF must be flexible if the country shows a commitment to raising revenue. A credible election result could offer Sri Lanka the chance to address the root causes of its economic collapse and set a fairer course for recovery. Global partners and financial institutions should be ready to support the country on its path to rebuilding.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇮🇱 Germany halts weapons exports to Israel: Germany has paused its weapons exports to Israel due to ongoing legal challenges, according to Economy Ministry data and a ministry source. In 2022, Germany approved €326.5 million ($363.5 million) in arms sales to Israel, a significant increase compared to the previous year. However, from January to August 21 this year, approvals dropped to just €14.5 million, with only €32,449 falling under the "weapons of war" category. A source close to the ministry indicated that a senior official stated approvals for arms exports to Israel are on hold until legal disputes—arguing these exports may violate humanitarian law—are resolved.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇵🇭 South China sea sabre-rattling continues, after the US opts to keep missile system in the Philippines: The U.S. has no current plans to withdraw a mid-range missile system stationed in the Philippines—despite Chinese objections—and is assessing its viability in a potential regional conflict, sources have revealed. The Typhon system, capable of launching cruise missiles against Chinese targets, was initially deployed for joint exercises earlier this year but has since remained. As a key ally in the region, the Philippines plays a crucial role in U.S. strategy, particularly in supporting Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. Both China and Russia have condemned the deployment, accusing the U.S. of inciting an arms race. China's foreign ministry expressed concerns, saying the system threatens regional security and escalates tensions. The deployment coincides with heightened clashes between China and the Philippines over disputed areas in the South China Sea, leading to recent confrontations in the region.