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📰 Hungary blocks Ukraine aid

📰 Hungary blocks Ukraine aid

and M23 advances in Congo

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
March 21, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Russia dominates headlines today, as the Kremlin deepens strategic ties with Venezuela in response to new U.S. sanctions, while President Putin pledges support and expanded cooperation to Syria’s transitional leader Ahmad al-Sharaa. Elsewhere, a new CSIS report warns that China’s growing dominance in global shipbuilding threatens both U.S. military readiness and economic security.

Our lead story turns to Myanmar, where a protracted civil conflict places Chin State at a dangerous crossroads, with geopolitical implications for both India and Bangladesh.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 Hungarian veto stifles EU’s Ukraine aid plans: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas had aimed to secure €40 billion in military aid for Ukraine, including the delivery of two million artillery shells by 2025. However, her plan collapsed after facing resistance from key EU states, a Hungarian veto, and limited prior consultation with member countries. Even a scaled-down proposal for €5 billion in ammunition aid failed to gain enough support, with southern and western European nations reluctant to commit. Critics say Kallas misjudged her role and failed to build consensus, weakening her influence and highlighting the challenge of uniting all 27 EU members behind a shared Ukraine policy.

2️⃣ 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Continued U.S. strikes on Yemen threaten further regional stability: Since Ansarullah—the Houthis—began targeting ships in the Red Sea in late 2023, the U.S. and its allies have launched repeated strikes against the Iran-allied Yemeni group. On March 15, the first such operation under President Trump killed over 50 people, including alleged Iranian operatives, as part of a broader strategy to curb Houthi attacks, pressure Tehran, and reassert U.S. naval strength. Yet, despite these efforts, the Houthis remain deeply entrenched, governing a vast territory and population, with growing regional influence and popular support. Trump’s escalation risks further inflaming tensions, potentially drawing Iran, Israel, and the broader Middle East into a more volatile confrontation.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 enter Walikale town, despite ceasefire calls: Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have advanced further into eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), capturing the strategic mining town of Walikale despite renewed international appeals for a ceasefire. The takeover came just one day after DRC President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame jointly called for an immediate truce during talks in Doha. A Congolese army spokesperson confirmed the loss of the town, while M23-allied leader Corneille Nangaa rejected the ceasefire proposal, insisting the agreement does not address their core demands. The seizure of Walikale, located roughly 125km northwest of Goma, represents M23’s deepest push westward into Congolese territory since the group’s resurgence, displacing thousands and leaving several civilians injured.

4️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇻🇪 Russia, Venezuela boost ties following Trump sanctions: In a televised video call, Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed Russia and Venezuela as "strategic partners" and pledged to deepen cooperation. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whose disputed re-election in July 2024 has been widely rejected, highlighted growing ties, particularly in energy. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump revoked a sanctions waiver for Chevron in Venezuela, cutting off a key revenue stream after accusing Maduro of failing to repatriate deported Venezuelans. Amid strained U.S.-Venezuela relations, Putin—one of the few leaders to recognize Maduro’s victory—invited him to Moscow for Russia’s May 9 Victory Day military parade.

5️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 China’s shipbuilding dominance challenges U.S. military readiness and economic interests: China has used aggressive industrial policies over the past two decades to dominate global commercial shipbuilding, simultaneously strengthening its naval fleet at an unprecedented pace. With the world’s largest navy by vessel count, China is projected to reach a 425-ship fleet by 2030, while the U.S. Navy is expected to remain around 300 ships. The U.S. government has begun responding, with the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative proposing penalties on Chinese-built ships and the Navy deepening cooperation with allies like Japan and South Korea. Congress is also taking action through the bipartisan SHIPS for America Act, introduced in December 2024, which aims to revitalize U.S. shipbuilding and counter China’s military-civil fusion strategy, which leverages commercial contracts to bolster its naval capabilities at the expense of U.S. and allied industries.

Major Story

🇲🇲 🇧🇩 🇮🇳 CHIN STATE AT A CROSSROADS: NAVIGATING POWER, FRAGMENTATION AND FRAGILE UNITY

Since Myanmar’s 2021 coup, Chin resistance forces have expelled the military from most of the state. Yet, despite their territorial control, political unity remains elusive. The Chin National Front and the Chin Brotherhood—two major factions—are attempting to consolidate under one political umbrella, but longstanding rivalries and ethnic fragmentation risk undermining this fragile alignment. Clashes between factions and tensions with the Arakan Army in Paletwa further destabilize the region. Without formal conflict de-escalation protocols and shared governance objectives, the risk of renewed infighting looms.

Humanitarian Crisis and Institutional Gaps

Over 160,000 people—more than a third of Chin State’s population—have been displaced. Aid access is limited, while public services remain fragmented or absent. For risks to be mitigated, donors must adapt to the new reality of fragmented authority by engaging directly with local actors, writes ICG. Additionally, regional powers, especially India, should support informal trade and cross-border humanitarian relief to ease food insecurity and economic strain.

Ethnic Complexity and Regional Power Play

Chin State’s diverse tribal makeup and its proximity to Bangladesh and India have made it strategically significant. The Arakan Army’s growing influence in Paletwa—a contested township rich in trade potential and infrastructure—has sparked local fears of ethno-nationalist domination. Control of Paletwa could grant leverage over India’s $500 million Kaladan Corridor, increasing regional stakes.

Looking Ahead

Stability hinges on the success of the February unity agreement between Chin factions. International engagement must move beyond state-centric frameworks to support local governance and peacebuilding. Without this shift, Chin State’s hard-won gains could unravel, and Myanmar’s broader post-coup trajectory may slide further into fragmentation and prolonged conflict.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇳🇿 🇮🇳 New Zealand and India revive free trade talks: India and New Zealand have resumed free trade negotiations a decade after discussions collapsed, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s visit to Delhi marking a key diplomatic step. Luxon held talks with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and announced that formal negotiations would commence next month, calling it a “major breakthrough” in bilateral economic relations. New Zealand sees India as a crucial market, with Luxon emphasizing its role in doubling New Zealand’s export value over the next decade. Beyond trade, both nations are expanding cooperation in defence, security, sports, and environmental initiatives, signing a defence pact focused on maritime security. The visit also coincides with a Five Eyes intelligence conference in Delhi, highlighting India’s strategic push to counter China in the Indian Ocean. Meanwhile, India continues broader trade engagements, restarting FTA talks with the EU and UK while preparing for new tariffs imposed by the U.S.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇸🇾 Putin offers Syria’s al-Sharaa support and cooperation: Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a message of support to Syria’s transitional leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, on 20 March, pledging assistance in stabilising the country and calling for deeper bilateral cooperation. The Kremlin confirmed that Putin reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and expressed readiness to expand joint efforts across political and economic spheres. Moscow, which backed former president Bashar al-Assad during Syria’s civil war, is now in talks with Sharaa’s government over the future of Russia’s military bases and potential investment projects. The message comes amid escalating conflict, with Israel continuing airstrikes in southern Syria and thousands fleeing violence in coastal regions.