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📰 Hungary withdraws from ICC

📰 Hungary withdraws from ICC

and Germany wants tougher EU

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 03, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

Today, China’s merchant marine emerges as a strategic extension of state power, Russia moves to lift the Taliban’s terrorist designation, and Israel launches airstrikes on the Lebanese capital.

Our main story examines the unmaking of the international order, as the United States increasingly breaks with global norms and distances itself from long-standing allies.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇭🇺 🇮🇱 Hungary announces withdrawal from ICC: Hungary has announced its decision to withdraw from the International Criminal Court (ICC), with the Orbán government initiating the formal exit process in accordance with legal protocols. The move coincides with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Budapest, after he was issued an ICC arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Gaza. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán had previously dismissed the warrant’s relevance in Hungary, signalling his government's intent to disregard ICC obligations. As a member state, Hungary was technically required to arrest individuals under ICC warrants—an obligation it now appears poised to reject entirely.

2️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇪🇺 Germany's next government wants tougher measures for rule-breaking EU states: Germany’s incoming coalition, led by conservative Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz and the SPD, is pledging to push the EU to more firmly enforce its rules against member states that violate democratic principles. Without naming Hungary directly, a draft coalition agreement commits to using tools like fund freezes, infringement proceedings, and even suspension of voting rights more decisively. The reference is widely understood to target Viktor Orbán’s government, long accused of undermining judicial independence and press freedom. The coalition also supports expanding qualified majority voting in EU foreign policy—especially on sanctions—to prevent Budapest from repeatedly vetoing measures against Russia, signalling a broader ambition to limit the power of obstructionist members.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel escalates attacks on Jenin and Tulkarm refugee camps in the West Bank: The Israeli military has begun transforming refugee camps in Jenin, Tulkarm, and Nur Shams into formal city neighbourhoods as part of an extensive operation launched in late January. The stated aim is to dismantle what the military calls “terrorist incubators” by widening roads, demolishing homes, and redesigning the camps’ layout. Palestinian families have received warnings but cannot legally appeal, with the demolitions labelled military operations. In Nur Shams alone, over 500 homes have been destroyed, displacing all 13,000 residents. Officials and local leaders warn that Israel’s broader strategy is to render camps uninhabitable, reshape their physical and demographic makeup, and erode the symbolic weight of Palestinian refugeehood. Similar plans are reportedly being drawn up for 18 additional camps across the West Bank.

4️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇸🇾 Turkiye eyes control of critical Syrian airbase: Turkey is moving to assume control of Syria’s Tiyas (T4) air base near Palmyra and plans to deploy advanced air defence systems there, according to sources familiar with the discussions. While negotiations between Ankara and Syria’s interim government have remained discreet, Turkey’s goal is to stabilise Syria post-Assad and counter Islamic State threats, while asserting military influence in the region. Ankara’s increasing presence has raised alarm in Israel, which fears that Turkish control of the base—and a potential deployment of Hisar or S-400 air defences—could restrict its operational freedom. Talks with Washington continue over lifting F-35-related sanctions, but Israeli opposition to Ankara’s military expansion remains strong.

5️⃣ 🇳🇪 🇹🇩 Niger withdraws from regional anti-jihadist force, deepening rift with allies: Niger’s ruling junta has formally withdrawn from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a regional military alliance created to combat jihadist groups around Lake Chad. The move, announced via state television, reflects an effort to reorient security operations toward oil infrastructure but signals a further break with regional cooperation. Established in 2015 by Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, the MNJTF struggled with coordination and resource limitations, weakening its ability to counter Boko Haram and its splinters. Analysts warn the withdrawal could benefit jihadist groups and leave local communities more exposed. The decision follows junta leader Abdourahmane Tiani’s self-installation as president until 2030, Niger’s departure from ECOWAS, and deepening alignment with Burkina Faso and Mali under the Alliance of Sahel States.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇺🇳 UNMAKING THE INTERNATIONAL ORDER: TRUMP’S DIVERGENCE FROM INTERNATIONAL NORMS AND TRADITIONAL ALLIES

The early months of Trump’s second term have seen a sweeping attack on legal norms, both domestically and internationally. While pardons for loyalists and constitutional overreach dominate headlines at home, Trump’s disregard for the UN Charter’s prohibition on the use of force and his wavering on mutual defence obligations threatens global stability. His rhetoric about annexing Canada, seizing the Panama Canal, and acquiring Greenland—paired with actual military posturing—violates foundational international legal commitments and undermines the post-WWII order the U.S. helped establish.

Waning Defence Commitments and Eroding Credibility

Trump’s equivocation on defending NATO members, Japan, and South Korea raises doubts about U.S. treaty obligations. His threats to condition support on arbitrary defence spending targets or withdraw troops altogether damage U.S. credibility, pushing allies to consider nuclear options and alternative security partnerships—steps that directly undercut America’s nonproliferation goals.

Consequences and the Road Ahead

These actions not only risk destabilizing alliances but embolden adversaries like Russia and fuel global nuclear proliferation. Trump’s behaviour corrodes U.S. soft power and could harm the very manufacturing base he seeks to revive, according to Just Security’s Brian Finucane. His advisors and Congress must actively uphold constitutional and international obligations, reminding the President that America’s strength lies in upholding—not discarding—its legal commitments. Without that, the U.S. risks becoming the very threat its alliances were meant to deter.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇦🇫 Russia rescinds Taliban’s terrorist designation: Russia’s Prosecutor General has filed a request to temporarily lift the ban on the Taliban, a group officially labelled a terrorist organisation since 2003, according to state outlet TASS. The Supreme Court has accepted the case, with a closed-door hearing set for April 17. This comes after a December 2024 law signed by President Putin allowing such suspensions if the group in question is deemed to have ceased terrorist activity. The move signals Russia’s intent to formalise ties with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, reflecting a broader push for economic and diplomatic engagement despite longstanding legal barriers.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Civilians and Hizbollah official killed in Beirut strike as Israel violates four-month ceasefire: An Israeli airstrike early Tuesday killed three people in Beirut’s southern suburbs, including senior Hizbollah official Hassan Bdir, according to a source close to the group. The strike hit without warning around 3:30 a.m. during Eid al-Fitr, destroying the top floors of a building and injuring seven others. Israel’s military claimed Bdir had coordinated with Hamas on an imminent attack, framing the strike as preemptive. Lebanese leaders condemned the bombing as a blatant violation of the four-month ceasefire, urging international support and warning of escalating tensions if such attacks continue.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 China’s merchant marine serving as a strategic arm of state power: Unlike traditional merchant fleets that operate independently of politics and serve primarily commercial functions, China’s merchant marine has been transformed into a tool of statecraft. With over 5,500 vessels and more than 122,000 seafarers, it now operates under a “military-civil fusion” strategy that integrates civilian shipping into Beijing’s broader national security agenda. This politicised fleet plays a dual role—supporting global trade while advancing Chinese geopolitical interests, particularly in contested waters. Unlike its Western counterparts, China’s merchant marine is tightly coordinated with the military, enabling rapid mobilisation, influence over international shipping lanes, and reinforcement of territorial claims. In effect, China’s merchant fleet is no longer just a commercial asset, but a key component of its strategic posture on the global stage.