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📰 ICC issues Netanyahu warrant

📰 ICC issues Netanyahu warrant

and China’s Pacific play deepens

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
November 22, 2024

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Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

China and Russia dominate headlines today by opposing the transformation of the Kenya-led Haiti mission into a UN peacekeeping operation. In Brazil, federal police formally accuse former President Jair Bolsonaro of plotting a 2022 coup d'état. In the United States, significant legislative shifts emerge as President Biden approves landmine deliveries to Ukraine, while the Senate rejects a resolution calling for an arms embargo on Israel.

Our lead story focuses on the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, as well as Hamas leader Muhammad Deif.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 Pakistan PM approves ‘comprehensive military operation’ against Balochistan separatists: Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has approved an offensive targeting separatist groups in the restive Balochistan province, following a deadly suicide bombing that killed 26 people at a Quetta train station. The attack, carried out by the banned Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) on 9 November, primarily claimed the lives of national security forces. The decision was announced after a meeting of the government’s security committee in Islamabad. Sharif’s office stated that the operation would focus on the BLA and other militant groups accused of targeting civilians and foreign nationals to undermine Pakistan’s economic stability, allegedly at the behest of hostile foreign powers. Militant violence has surged in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with recent deadly attacks blamed on the BLA and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), including coordinated assaults in August that killed over 50 people.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇸🇧 🇰🇮 China’s engagement with Pacific states is a ‘more competitive, targeted model’ says thinktank: China is intensifying its efforts to win favour in Pacific island nations, with a recent report highlighting a resurgence in Beijing-backed aid and infrastructure initiatives. After scaling back during the COVID-19 pandemic, China has ramped up its commitments, according to Australia’s Lowy Institute. The report noted a shift in Beijing’s approach, favouring politically strategic aid projects over broad regional engagement. In 2022, China allocated $256 million in aid, a 14% increase from three years prior, focusing on nations like Solomon Islands and Kiribati, which severed ties with Taiwan in 2019. This targeted support contrasts with dwindling Chinese development funding in Papua New Guinea, which signed a security pact with the US in 2023. While Australia remains the Pacific's largest donor with $1.5 billion in aid, US funding, at $249 million, is now closely trailing China’s efforts.

3️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇸🇾 Myanmar overtakes Syria in global unexploded munitions count: Myanmar led the world in landmine and unexploded ordnance casualties in 2023, with over 1,000 people killed or injured, according to the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL). Decades of military conflict with ethnic rebel groups have left the country littered with mines, and the 2021 coup intensified the violence. Clashes have grown as new “People’s Defence Forces” emerge to challenge military rule. The ICBL documented 1,003 casualties in Myanmar last year, exceeding figures from Syria (933), Afghanistan (651), and Ukraine (580). Landmine use by the military has surged, especially around critical infrastructure, while opposition groups have also employed mines in some areas. With civilians accounting for 84% of global landmine victims in 2023, the humanitarian toll in Myanmar underscores the urgent need for demining efforts and international action.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Biden approves land mine deliveries to Ukraine, reversing 2022 policy: Human rights groups have condemned President Joe Biden’s decision to provide Ukraine with anti-personnel landmines, a move that reverses his 2022 pledge to limit their use. The decision, announced as Biden approaches the end of his term, reflects growing U.S. concerns over Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine. While the supplied mines are “non-persistent” and designed to become inert once their batteries expire, critics warn of their inherent risks. Hichem Khadhraoui, director of the Center for Civilians in Conflict, emphasised that these indiscriminate weapons violate international humanitarian law by failing to differentiate between civilians and combatants. Amnesty International’s Ben Linden called the decision “devastating” and a blemish on Biden’s legacy. Despite U.S. assurances about safeguards, the long-term dangers of mines, which can persist well beyond the conflict, remain a point of contention.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 U.S. senate rejects Israel arms embargo resolution: The U.S. Senate decisively rejected three resolutions introduced by Senator Bernie Sanders, which aimed to block the sale of certain weapons to Israel amidst its ongoing military operations in Gaza. The first resolution, opposing the sale of 120-millimetre tank rounds, was defeated 18-79. A second resolution, targeting high-explosive mortar rounds, failed with a vote of 19-78. The third, which sought to halt the sale of kits to convert unguided bombs into precision-guided munitions, was rejected 17-80. Sanders, a Jewish senator and longtime critic of Israeli policies, argued the U.S. should not support nations violating human rights. "We cannot allow U.S. taxpayer dollars and weapons to be used in ways that breach international law and moral values," he stated, citing reports from humanitarian organisations alleging Israeli violations in Gaza.

Major Story

🇺🇳 INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT ISSUES ARREST WARRANTS FOR NETANYAHU, GALLANT, DEIF

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader Mohammed Deif. They face charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity in connection to Israel’s ongoing Gaza onslaught. The warrants, posted online, accuse Netanyahu and Gallant of employing starvation as a weapon of war and deliberately targeting medical facilities between 8 October 2023 and 20 May 2024. Deif—allegedly killed in July—was charged for his role in Hamas’ October 7 attacks on Israel.

The ICC’s decision obligates its 124 member states to arrest the accused if they enter their jurisdiction. However, enforcement challenges remain, as neither the US nor Israel are ICC members. Experts—including human rights scholar Neve Gordon—highlight strong evidence supporting the charges, citing statements from Israeli officials and documented attacks on Gaza’s hospitals and healthcare workers.

While the court’s inability to hold trials in absentia limits immediate action, the warrants could restrict Netanyahu and Gallant's international travel. The case underscores the ICC’s expanding role in addressing alleged war crimes but also its enforcement limitations, as seen with the unexecuted warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇭🇹 🇰🇪 🇺🇳 Moscow, Beijing support Kenya–led Haiti mission over UN peacekeepers: Russia and China have voiced opposition to a U.S.-led push to transition the Kenya-led multinational force in Haiti into a U.N. peacekeeping mission, aimed at combating rampant gang violence. At a U.N. Security Council meeting on Wednesday, the two nations rejected the proposal, emphasising that such a shift would complicate efforts to address funding challenges and hinder the deployment of pledged international police. China’s Deputy U.N. Ambassador, Geng Shuang, argued that peacekeepers require an established peace to maintain, which is absent in Haiti, where gangs control 85% of the capital, Port-au-Prince, and have expanded into nearby areas. Currently, only 430 police officers, mostly from Kenya, are operational, far short of the 2,500 pledged. The U.S. proposal, introduced in September, aimed to address the force's funding crisis through the peacekeeping transformation.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 Federal police accuse Bolsonaro of 2022 coup d'etat plot: Brazilian federal police have formally accused former President Jair Bolsonaro of conspiring to overturn the 2022 election results in coordination with dozens of ex-ministers and senior aides. The allegations, filed with the Supreme Court on Thursday, conclude a nearly two-year investigation into Bolsonaro's involvement in efforts to delegitimize the election, which led to January 2023 riots in Brasilia shortly after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva assumed office. During the riots, Bolsonaro's supporters sought to incite chaos, hoping to justify a military coup. Police recently arrested five individuals allegedly plotting to assassinate Lula before his inauguration, with investigators uncovering evidence that Bolsonaro was aware of the scheme. Bolsonaro dismissed the accusations on social media, accusing investigators and the judiciary of overreach. His lawyer stated they would await the full report before issuing further comments.

3️⃣ 🇳🇬 Boko Haram insurgents attack security forces in North-Central Nigeria: Seven members of Nigeria’s government protection agency remain missing after Boko Haram insurgents ambushed their convoy in Shiroro, Niger state, authorities reported. The attack targeted a team of 80 operatives tasked with protecting power infrastructure, according to Babawale Afolabi, spokesperson for the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps. The convoy was overrun by approximately 200 insurgents during a patrol mission on Monday. Afolabi stated that at least 50 attackers were killed in the clash. Boko Haram, known for sabotaging Nigeria’s power grid, previously caused a week-long blackout in northern Nigeria by damaging infrastructure. Although primarily active in Nigeria's northeast, Boko Haram maintains cells in Niger state, where it has carried out similar attacks. Since 2009, the group has waged Africa’s longest insurgency—seeking to impose Sharia law—with violence spilling into neighbouring countries.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Unprecedented levels of violence against children in the occupied West Bank: In the year following Hamas's attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, 171 Palestinian children were killed in the occupied West Bank by Israeli forces and settlers, averaging nearly one death every other day, according to UN data. Over 1,000 others were injured. The youngest victim was a four-year-old girl fatally shot in January while sitting in a taxi with her mother near a checkpoint. Despite the absence of an official war in the West Bank, child casualties have reached their highest level since Israel occupied the area in 1967. Unicef Palestine expressed alarm over the escalating violence, citing frequent use of live ammunition. The Israeli military—which does not launch criminal investigations unless misconduct is suspected—attributed some incidents to children participating in ‘hostile activities’.