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📰 India-China border deal reached

📰 India-China border deal reached

and North Korea blasts sanctions

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 22, 2024

Hello,

India makes headlines today with two major developments: an agreement between Delhi and Beijing on military patrols along their disputed Himalayan border, and the Five Eyes intelligence alliance addressing the ongoing India-Canada diplomatic standoff.

In other news, Iraq's Kurdistan region has held parliamentary elections, and Israel has reportedly shared its terms for de-escalating tensions in Lebanon with the U.S.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇮🇳 🇨🇦 Five Eyes Intelligence bloc calls for India to cooperate with Canada’s legal process, amidst diplomatic row: On Monday, Canadian police disclosed credible evidence linking Indian agents, including India’s high commissioner to Canada, to the June 2023 murder of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, alleging a broader effort to target Indian dissidents. India denied the accusations, retaliating by expelling six senior Canadian diplomats. UK officials expressed support for Canada's judicial process, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasising the importance of the rule of law during recent discussions. Trudeau described Nijjar's killing as a "massive mistake," citing India's violation of Canada’s sovereignty. Five Eyes allies are navigating diplomatic complexities amid Canada's allegations of Indian diplomats coordinating criminal activities against South Asian Canadians. The case has heightened scrutiny of India’s international conduct, with unresolved tensions persisting across diplomatic channels.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 India, China reach disputed border deal: India and China have reached an agreement on military patrols along their contested Himalayan border, potentially resolving a conflict that began in 2020, according to India's Ministry of External Affairs. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced on Monday that weeks of negotiations between diplomats and military officials had resulted in a pact concerning patrol arrangements along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the 3,488-km border separating the two nations. The agreement aims to disengage forces and address issues that arose during the 2020 clashes. The LAC runs from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east, a region China claims as part of Tibet. Misri did not clarify if the deal entailed withdrawing the additional troops stationed in Ladakh. The announcement precedes Prime Minister Modi's visit to Russia for the BRICS summit.

3️⃣ 🇰🇵 🇺🇸 North Korea calls new US-led sanctions ‘unlawful’: North Korea's foreign minister denounced a new sanctions monitoring team, led by the U.S., as "unlawful and illegitimate," according to state media reports. The multinational team's formation follows Russia's March rejection of the U.N. panel renewal, which had monitored North Korean sanctions for 15 years, while China abstained from the vote. Tensions have escalated on the Korean Peninsula, with North Korea advancing its missile and nuclear capabilities and deepening military ties with Russia. The U.S. is bolstering regional security cooperation with South Korea and Japan. Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui condemned the sanctions as a blatant violation of North Korea's sovereignty, warning of consequences. Meanwhile, South Korea claims North Korea has sent 1,500 troops to Russia for training, potentially to fight in Ukraine, something both Russia and North Korea deny.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 🇱🇧 Israel reportedly gives Washington its terms for Lebanon de-escalation: Last week, Israel provided the U.S. with a document outlining its conditions for a diplomatic resolution to end the conflict with Hizbollah in Lebanon, according to sources from both nations. The proposal, presented before U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein’s visit to Beirut, includes demands for the Israeli military to actively prevent Hizbollah from rebuilding near the border and maintain air force access to Lebanese airspace. These demands conflict with UN Resolution 1701, which mandates Lebanese and UN forces enforce the ceasefire. While U.S. officials seek a solution based on 1701 with enhanced Lebanese military presence in southern Lebanon, Lebanese leaders oppose altering the resolution. As negotiations continue, Israel has carpet bombed financial targets ostensibly linked to Hizbollah in southern Beirut, threatening the economic security of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese civilians.

5️⃣ 🇮🇶 Iraqi Kurdistan votes in parliamentary elections: Voters in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region participated in long-overdue parliamentary elections, held Sunday, amid widespread discontent with political leadership and ongoing economic woes. The election, initially scheduled for 2022, had been postponed several times due to disputes between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Preliminary results indicate the KDP leads with 809,197 votes, followed by the PUK's 408,141, while the New Generation opposition party secured 290,991 votes. Voter turnout reached 72%, according to the electoral commission. The elections took place against a backdrop of economic hardship, worsened by a halt in oil exports since March 2023 when Turkey stopped the KRG's pipeline operations after a $1.5 billion arbitration ruling in favour of Baghdad, causing delays in public sector salaries and service cuts.

Major Story

🇸🇦 🇮🇷 SAUDI ARABIA, IRAN, AND THE PATH TO NORMALISATION

Background

Iran and Saudi Arabia have struggled to fully implement the diplomatic normalisation envisioned by their China-brokered agreement from March 2023. The deal aimed to re-establish relations by reopening embassies, facilitating pilgrimages, and outlining mutual commitments to non-interference and cooperation. However, progress has been limited to symbolic actions, such as embassy reopenings, with deeper collaboration stalling amid lingering tensions.

A History of Rivalry and Distrust

Relations between the two regional powerhouses, one Shia-majority (Iran) and the other Sunni-majority (Saudi Arabia), have been fraught for decades, shaped by sectarian divisions and competing bids for regional dominance. The two countries have often found themselves on opposing sides of conflicts, including the war in Yemen. Diplomatic ties were severed in 2016 following the execution of Shia cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr and subsequent attacks on Saudi diplomatic facilities in Iran. The rivalry intensified under the U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, which escalated into attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure in 2019.

Compartmentalising Issues for Progress

To move beyond the current stalemate, Iran and Saudi Arabia need to compartmentalise their disputes, says International Crisis Group. Riyadh should not make its expectations for Tehran to reduce support for regional non-state actors a prerequisite for progress, especially without security guarantees. Similarly, Iran must acknowledge Saudi Arabia's ongoing security partnership with the U.S. and accept that Riyadh will pursue external alliances, including potential normalisation with Israel—even against the backdrop of what the International Court of Justice considers ‘plausible genocide’ in Gaza.

Building Confidence Through Practical Steps

Concrete measures in less contentious areas—such as trade, academic exchanges, and public health initiatives—could serve as stepping stones toward deeper cooperation. Establishing a joint coordination council could help develop structured plans for these initiatives, paving the way for economic pilot projects or investment agreements. While a comprehensive resolution remains elusive, pursuing incremental gains could help stabilise the region and potentially open doors for broader agreements.

The 2023 agreement offers a window of opportunity to advance relations, but scepticism and historical rivalry persist. Patient diplomacy, coupled with realistic expectations, will be crucial for turning tentative engagement into sustained peace.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇴 Somali journalist arrested in government’s latest attack against press freedom: Early on Friday last week, intelligence agents abducted Somali journalist Abduqadir Mohamed Nur, known as "Jakarta," from his home, according to press freedom advocates. The Somali Journalists Syndicate (SJS) condemned the arrest, calling it a “brazen attack” on both Nur and Risaala Media Corporation for reporting critically on state security forces. SJS Secretary-General Abdalle Ahmed Mumin demanded Nur's immediate release and an investigation into his detention at a facility notorious for torture. The incident occurred amid a crackdown on journalists reporting on government activities, with previous arrests and violence targeting media personnel. Somalia ranks 145th on the World Press Freedom Index, and proposed information laws are raising concerns over potential restrictions on independent reporting, which could limit public access to vital information and enable government overreach.