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📰 India, Pakistan exchange nuclear lists

📰 India, Pakistan exchange nuclear lists

and China’s fragile economy

Ross Crabtree
January 03, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today in geopolitics, the UK’s Royal Navy tracks a Russian warship near Cornwall, Israeli strikes on New Year's Day devastate north Gaza, and conflicts in Somalia’s Puntland and eastern DR Congo deteriorate.

Our main story focuses on China’s political and economic strategy for 2025.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India, Pakistan exchange nuclear facility lists in annual agreement: India and Pakistan exchanged lists of their nuclear facilities as part of an annual diplomatic agreement aimed at preventing military strikes on each other’s nuclear sites. This pact, signed in 1988 and enforced in 1991, reflects a rare point of cooperation between the two nuclear-armed neighbours. The latest exchange, carried out on January 1 through official diplomatic channels in New Delhi and Islamabad, continues a tradition that began in 1992. Despite this gesture, relations between India and Pakistan remain strained, with longstanding tensions centred on the disputed Kashmir region, which both nations claim.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 M23 declares ‘existential war’ in eastern DR Congo: For three years, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has faced intense conflict between the national army and the M23 rebel group, resulting in hundreds of deaths and displacing nearly two million people. M23 emerged from a military mutiny in 2012 but resumed fighting in 2022, seizing large areas of North Kivu province. The group claims to defend Congolese Tutsis, who report discrimination due to ethnic ties with Rwanda’s Tutsi population. Kinshasa views M23 as the country’s most pressing security threat, with tensions rising over accusations that Rwanda supports the rebels—allegations Kigali denies. Despite ceasefire attempts and peace talks, hostilities persist, with M23 continuing territorial advances. Bertrand Bisimwa, the group’s political leader, insists M23’s fight is defensive and expresses hope for dialogue to end the violence.

3️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique unrest forces closure of critical graphite mine: The Balama graphite mine in Mozambique—vital for global critical mineral supplies—has suspended operations amid widespread protests following contested elections. Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party retained power, but opposition groups and much of the population dispute the results, triggering unrest that has disrupted key infrastructure. Syrah Resources, which owns Balama, cited ongoing grievances from local farmers over land resettlement as a catalyst for the protests. The shutdown threatens Mozambique’s economic stability and highlights the risks of sourcing minerals from conflict-prone areas. Graphite is crucial for clean energy technologies, and Balama’s closure could undermine efforts to reduce reliance on China’s mineral dominance.

4️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇸🇦 Syria pursues renewal of ties with Saudi Arabia: Syria’s new foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, expressed hopes of strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia during his first official visit to the kingdom since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government. The visit comes weeks after rebel forces ousted Assad on December 8. Al-Shaibani, joined by Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra and Intelligence Chief Anas Khattab, described the trip as a step toward opening a “new, bright page” in relations. Saudi Arabia’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Waleed bin Abdulkarim El Khereiji, welcomed the delegation, highlighting the significance of the meeting for regional diplomacy.

5️⃣ 🇸🇴 Security forces clash with Islamic State in Puntland: Security forces in Puntland, Somalia, killed eight foreign militants following an attack by Islamic State fighters early Tuesday. The assault began with a suicide bombing targeting Dharjale village in Puntland’s eastern highlands, where officials and security forces were stationed. Puntland’s security spokesperson, Brigadier General Mohamud Mohamed Ahmed, confirmed the incident, stating the forces had been tracking the militants and were prepared. Islamic State later claimed responsibility, alleging over 20 security personnel were killed, though this has not been verified. Civilians in the area also reported casualties from shrapnel. Puntland recently announced the completion of preparations for an offensive against extremist groups, focusing on IS. The region's leader, Said Abdullahi Deni, urged public support and offered amnesty to militants who renounce violence. Reports indicate IS membership in Somalia has grown to between 500 and 600 fighters.

Major Story

🇨🇳 CHINA’S 2025 STRATEGY: NAVIGATING ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL TURBULENCE

In 2025, China faces significant economic hurdles as weak consumer demand and deflation undermine growth, as per Keough School of Global Affairs’ Mary Gallagher. Efforts to shift from investment-driven expansion to higher household consumption have faltered, leaving the economy sluggish despite measures to stabilise markets and recapitalise banks. Structural reforms aimed at boosting local government revenues and redistributing income are crucial but risk conflicting with short-term economic stimulus needs. Delaying these reforms could exacerbate economic stagnation, widening disparities and increasing social discontent.

Political Constraints and Social Tensions

President Xi Jinping's consolidation of power through anti-corruption campaigns has suppressed bureaucratic initiative and stifled civil society. This has fostered social inertia, with youth disengaging from the workforce and businesses seeking opportunities abroad. While this political grip ensures stability, it erodes trust in Xi’s leadership and limits innovative policy solutions essential for sustainable growth.

External Pressures and Diplomatic Complexities

Externally, China confronts mounting geopolitical tensions, particularly with the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, heightening trade conflict risks. Additionally, regional instability in Syria, Korea, and Ukraine further complicates China’s strategic calculus, narrowing diplomatic opportunities while intensifying economic and security concerns.

Outlook for 2025

Xi faces tough decisions to restore confidence and reinvigorate growth. Options include fiscal stimulus, expanded welfare, or recalibrating anti-corruption efforts. However, balancing domestic stability with external pressures will shape China’s trajectory, making 2025 a pivotal year for Xi’s leadership and the nation’s future.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇷🇺 UK track Russian warship sailing near Cornwall: Royal Navy personnel from Devon and Cornwall monitored Russian vessels near the British coast over the holiday period. HMS Somerset, based in Devonport, departed on 27 December to track the Russian corvette RFS Soobrazitelny and its support ships as they passed through the English Channel. The operation, supported by a Merlin helicopter from 814 Naval Air Squadron, lasted five days and concluded on New Year’s Eve.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 New Years day strikes devastate North Gaza: Israeli airstrikes on New Year’s Day killed at least 12 Palestinians in Gaza, including women and children, as the war continued into its 15th month. In northern Gaza’s Jabaliya, a strike on a home left seven dead, including four children, and wounded at least a dozen others, according to Gaza’s health ministry. Additional strikes in the Bureij refugee camp and Khan Younis killed five more, including a woman and child. The conflict has displaced 90% of Gaza’s population and left many in tents as winter temperatures drop. A peace settlement remains elusive.