Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

From Latin America today, a deadly ambush in Ecuador underscores the growing influence of criminal networks in illegal gold mining, while Trump’s deportation deal with El Salvador triggers serious legal concerns. On Capitol Hill, Mike Waltz faces tough scrutiny as Trump’s nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. 

Our main story explores the India-Pakistan ceasefire and the shifting strategic dynamics surrounding the conflict.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇨🇳 🇺🇳 Chinese-made weapons being funnelled into Darfur by UAE, Amnesty finds: Amnesty International has revealed that Chinese-made guided bombs and howitzers, re-exported by the United Arab Emirates UAE, have been deployed by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Darfur and Khartoum—violating the UN arms embargo. Analysis of digital evidence confirmed the use of Norinco’s GB50A guided bombs and AH-4 howitzers, with the UAE as the only known importer of the latter. Amnesty has called this a flagrant breach of international law, urging the UN to expand the arms embargo and demanding accountability for continued weapon transfers. China and the UAE, both Arms Trade Treaty signatories, now face scrutiny for enabling potential war crimes through negligent arms oversight.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Ceasefire offers fragile relief amid India-Pakistan clashes: India and Pakistan both declared victory after a ceasefire ended days of intense cross-border attacks that brought the two nuclear-armed neighbours to the brink of war. The ceasefire followed a sharp escalation involving drone and missile strikes, with both sides claiming significant damage inflicted. While President Trump praised both governments for their “wisdom” in halting the aggression, brief post-truce violations sparked concerns the calm might unravel. Nonetheless, hostilities had largely subsided by Sunday morning, and both militaries exchanged warnings via hotline, while nationalistic celebrations unfolded across the region. Yet, voices on both sides, especially in Kashmir, warned that the deeper political dispute remains unresolved and peace will remain elusive until it is addressed.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 🇬🇧 Kremlin rejects European ultimatum for Ukraine ceasefire: Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed a demand from European leaders to agree to an unconditional ceasefire with Ukraine or face harsher sanctions and increased Western military aid. Instead, he proposed direct negotiations with Kyiv, suggesting talks could take place in Istanbul later this week. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, joined by leaders from France, Germany, and Poland, warned that if Moscow spurns the ceasefire proposal, coordinated sanctions and arms transfers would intensify. While Ukraine has expressed readiness for a 30-day ceasefire, Russia insists that Western weapons shipments must end first—raising doubts over the viability of peace efforts despite mounting diplomatic pressure.

4️⃣ 🇨🇭 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump claims 'total reset' in US-China Switzerland trade talks: Donald Trump described the opening round of US-China trade talks in Geneva as a “total reset” and praised the discussions as “friendly but constructive.” The meetings between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng lasted eight hours, aiming to defuse a near-embargo-level standoff caused by Trump’s tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods and China’s 125% retaliatory levies. While no concrete outcomes were announced, both sides signalled willingness to continue negotiations. Talks come amid mounting global economic risks, with the White House stressing that tariff reductions would depend on Chinese concessions.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 Think tankers compete for influence with Starmer’s Labour: As the Labour government navigates its first year in office, think tanks are jostling for influence—offering policy ideas and analysis through meetings, papers, and backchannel discussions. Downing Street, now led by Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney, has welcomed engagement with institutions like the Tony Blair Institute, IPPR, and Labour Together, though others complain of mixed signals and self-censorship. While some insiders argue that think tanks are sidelined by the demands of daily governance, others say they remain crucial for shaping long-term strategy, especially as Labour struggles to counter Reform UK’s growing populist narrative. Whether treated as partners or policy auditioners, think tanks remain tightly bound to Labour’s ideological tug-of-war.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇵🇰 INDIA-PAKISTAN CEASEFIRE: A FAMILIAR PATTERN IN A NEW STRATEGIC ERA

The latest India-Pakistan clash, sparked by a deadly April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 civilians, followed a familiar trajectory: a dubiously linked terror incident, reciprocal military escalation, and an eventual ceasefire—this time brokered on May 10. Yet, unlike previous crises, this confrontation involved direct missile strikes on military installations and the operational deployment of loitering drones and advanced fighter jets, marking an unprecedented escalation in the region’s long-running rivalry.

Rising Risks in a Changing Diplomatic Landscape

Historically, the United States played a crucial role in de-escalating Indo-Pakistani conflicts, from Clinton’s mediation in Kargil (1999) to behind-the-scenes diplomacy during the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot standoff. Today, however, Washington’s diplomatic bandwidth is stretched thin, with no ambassadors in Delhi or Islamabad and key regional posts unfilled. While President Trump claimed U.S. involvement in the latest ceasefire, both sides have downplayed external mediation—leaving a void no other power, including China, can credibly fill.

Religious Nationalism and Multi-Domain Conflict

Domestic political shifts are hardening the conflict’s ideological edges. Modi’s Hindu nationalism and Pakistani Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir’s embrace of the two-nation theory have infused strategic decisions with sectarian undertones. The naming of military operations—India’s “Operation Sindoor” and Pakistan’s “Bunyan-un-Marsoos”—reflects these deeply symbolic narratives. Meanwhile, warfare is no longer confined to border skirmishes. The conflict saw the use of Chinese and Western weapons systems, drone strikes on radar installations, and cyberattacks targeting military networks. Information warfare and social media propaganda have intensified, inflaming nationalist sentiments and reducing space for moderation.

A Fragile Pause in a More Dangerous World

While the ceasefire has temporarily halted hostilities, the escalation pathways are now broader and more volatile. Nuclear doctrines remain ambiguous, and the breakdown of international norms has made military actions once deemed taboo appear tolerable. With diminished global mediation and an increasingly multi-domain conflict environment, the region faces a more perilous strategic reality. This crisis may have ended, but its lessons suggest the next one could be far harder to contain.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇺🇳 Waltz faces scrutiny as Trump’s UN ambassador pick: Mike Waltz, the former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, is set to become the next U.S. ambassador to the United Nations—pending a Senate confirmation hearing that Democrats have signalled could be contentious. Critics question Waltz’s aptitude for high-stakes diplomacy, citing his mishandling of sensitive information during his brief White House tenure, including the now-infamous “Signalgate” leak involving U.S. operations in Yemen. Though Trump has defended the appointment as an “upgrade,” it remains unclear whether the role will carry cabinet-level access. While Waltz’s military and national security credentials offer some credibility, many at the UN are wary of his inexperience with the institution’s complex machinery—and whether he holds real sway with Trump.

2️⃣ 🇸🇻 🇺🇸 Trump's El Salvador deal raises legal alarms: In March, the Trump administration transferred 238 Venezuelan and 23 Salvadoran migrants to El Salvador’s CECOT prison, invoking the 1798 Alien Enemies Act for the first time since WWII. This move was justified by claiming an “invasion” by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. A secretive deal—likely a non-binding diplomatic note exchange—reportedly underpins the transfer, obligating El Salvador to detain up to 300 alleged gang members, possibly for $20,000 per detainee annually. Legal experts and lawmakers now demand transparency, citing due process violations, potential torture risks, and questionable U.S. custody claims. While the written arrangement’s release could clarify U.S. responsibilities, only sworn testimony from officials may fully reveal the deal’s terms, scope, and execution—critical for accountability as more renditions may follow.

3️⃣ 🇪🇨 🇨🇴 Deadly ambush in Ecuador highlights criminal grip on illegal gold mining: An Ecuadorian army unit of 80 soldiers was ambushed over the weekend by the armed group Comandos de Frontera while conducting an operation against illegal gold mining in Alto Punino, a remote jungle area near the Colombian border. The attack, carried out with heavy weaponry including explosives and grenades, left at least 11 soldiers dead—all members of the 19th Jungle Brigade—according to military intelligence. The area, located near the Sumaco Galeras National Park, has become a hotspot for organized crime groups operating across Ecuador’s borders with Colombia and Peru. Reports from the OAS and Ecuador’s Ministry of Defense confirm illegal mining now affects 18 of the country’s 24 provinces. In 2023 alone, illegal gold mining generated over $1.3 billion in exports, fueling the rise of transnational criminal networks in the region.

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