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📰 India rethinks Myanmar policy

📰 India rethinks Myanmar policy

and Hamas delegation arrives in Cairo

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 14, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

Today, Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa secures re-election in a decisive runoff; China downplays the impact of U.S. tariffs; and a Hamas delegation arrives in Cairo as ceasefire talks resume.

Our lead story explores how India is recalibrating its Myanmar policy—seeking to balance national security concerns with strategic engagement along a fractured border.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇴🇲 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran, U.S. agree to continue nuclear talks after indirect first round: Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that nuclear talks with the United States, scheduled for next weekend, will continue indirectly with Oman acting as mediator. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday in Muscat for the first high-level dialogue since the collapse of the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. Talks will remain limited to Iran’s nuclear programme and the lifting of sanctions, with no discussion of missiles or regional policy, Iran stated. The meeting—described as “constructive” by both sides—was followed by a brief direct exchange and another round is set for April 19, reportedly in Europe.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russian airstrikes hit civilian targets in Sumy, northern Ukraine: More than 30 people were killed and 117 injured in a Russian missile strike on the Ukrainian city of Sumy on Sunday, one of the deadliest attacks in Ukraine this year. Ukrainian officials reported that two ballistic missiles struck the city centre as civilians gathered for Palm Sunday, killing at least 34, including two children. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the strike, accusing Russia of defying U.S.-led ceasefire efforts and continuing its assault with impunity. Global leaders, including the UK, France, and Poland, echoed outrage, while U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg called the attack “indefensible” and stressed Trump’s commitment to ending the war.

3️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Israeli airstrikes target last major hospital in northern Gaza: An Israeli airstrike hit al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza City—the last major medical facility operating in northern Gaza—drawing widespread condemnation from Palestinian officials and international religious leaders. The Episcopal Diocese of Jerusalem, which runs the hospital, denounced the attack as a desecration of religious sanctity, noting it occurred on Palm Sunday, the beginning of Holy Week. The WHO and foreign governments also condemned the strike, addressing it as a ‘deplorable violation of international law.’ The strike destroyed the hospital’s genetic lab and damaged other vital departments, forcing the evacuation of patients and medical staff, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇹🇷 🇱🇾 Sudanese Armed Forces chief Al-Burhan holds talks with Erdogan in Antalya: Sudan’s Sovereign Council leader, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Antalya to discuss Sudan’s conflict, reconstruction, and shared regional concerns. Al-Burhan thanked Turkey for its ongoing humanitarian aid and support for Sudanese sovereignty, while Erdoğan reaffirmed Ankara’s backing for peace and stability in Sudan. On the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum, Al-Burhan also met Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dabaiba, with both leaders stressing the need for unified regional diplomacy. Meanwhile, Sudan’s Foreign Minister Dr. Ali Youssef held talks with IFRC Secretary-General Jagan Chapagain, focusing on expanding humanitarian efforts and preparing for recovery, with emphasis on infrastructure restoration and safe repatriation of displaced citizens.

5️⃣🇬🇦 Gabon junta leader wins presidential election: Brice Oligui Nguema, Gabon's transitional leader and former coup architect, has claimed a landslide victory in the country's presidential election, winning 90.35% of the vote, according to preliminary results released by the Interior Ministry. His nearest rival, Alain-Claude Bilie Bie Nze, received just over 3%, while the other candidates trailed with under 1% each. With a 70.4% turnout, the vote was Gabon’s first since the 2023 coup that ended more than five decades of Bongo family rule. Although Oligui had pledged to return the country to civilian rule, he formally entered the race last month as a civilian candidate and is now set to begin a renewable seven-year term.

Major Story

🇮🇳 🇲🇲 BALANCING STRATEGY AND SECURITY: INDIA’S EVOLVING MYANMAR POLICY

India’s foreign policy toward Myanmar has evolved in response to the post-coup fragmentation of the Myanmar state, particularly along its border. New Delhi now balances relations with Naypyitaw while engaging anti-junta groups controlling Chin and Rakhine states. However, a hardline internal security approach—including fencing and restrictions on cross-border movement—risks undermining this dual-track diplomacy and alienating transborder communities critical to India’s strategic goals.

Contradictions in Policy

While India’s foreign ministry pursues greater connectivity with Southeast Asia under its Act East Policy, the home ministry’s restrictive border measures threaten to derail these efforts. Measures such as the biometric tracking of refugees and limitations on cross-border movement strain ties with Myanmar-based actors and disrupt local economies. These contradictions have implications for India’s humanitarian outreach, refugee support, and informal trade channels that sustain many communities along the border.

A Pragmatic Way Forward

India would benefit from tailoring its border management strategy in collaboration with its north-eastern states, whose communities straddle the frontier. A more flexible, locally informed approach could improve relations with Myanmar’s armed groups, enhance humanitarian access, and bolster regional trade. Simultaneously, India should expand support for refugee-hosting states like Mizoram and Manipur, and engage more broadly with non-border ethnic armed organisations to deepen its diplomatic influence, writes International Crisis Group.

Conclusion

Rather than rigid controls, India’s Myanmar policy requires a nimble blend of diplomacy, humanitarian aid, and decentralised coordination with state actors. This would strengthen India’s credibility in Southeast Asia and safeguard its strategic and economic interests while contributing to regional stability amid Myanmar’s protracted crisis.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇪🇬 🇶🇦 Hamas delegation in Cairo for ceasefire talks: Hamas has reportedly agreed to a request from mediators to increase the number of Israeli captives included in a potential Gaza ceasefire deal, according to Saudi outlet Al-Arabiya. The proposed agreement, currently under discussion in Cairo with Egyptian and Qatari mediators, would unfold in two phases and include information about each captive’s condition ahead of the deal’s implementation. The U.S. is expected to pressure Israel to accept the latest terms. While Israel demands the release of 11 living captives, Hamas insists on a full ceasefire and rejects any arrangement that allows military operations to resume.

2️⃣ 🇪🇨 Ecuador’s president, Daniel Noboa, re-elected in runoff: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa secured a decisive win in Sunday’s presidential runoff, earning 55.85% of the vote with over 92% of ballots counted—an outcome widely seen as a public endorsement of his tough-on-crime agenda. Leftist challenger Luisa González, who received 44.15%, rejected the result and demanded a recount, claiming fraud despite international observers reporting a calm election day. Noboa, who took office in 2023 to complete the term of his predecessor, will now serve a full term until 2029. His presidency has been marked by a militarised campaign against drug gangs, energy blackouts, and rising poverty—yet he won by a larger margin than polls predicted, even amid controversy over a last-minute state of emergency decree.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇻🇳 China downplays tariff risks: China has downplayed the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on its export sector, with customs official Lyu Daliang insisting “the sky won’t fall,” pointing to diversified trade ties and a robust domestic market. Despite Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs of 125% on U.S. goods, compared to Washington’s 145%, stock markets climbed Monday as investors interpreted signals of a temporary reprieve from harsh levies on electronics. However, mixed messages from the White House—suggesting some devices may still be included in upcoming tariffs—kept uncertainty high. During a visit to Vietnam, President Xi Jinping criticised the U.S. measures as counterproductive, warning that “trade and tariff wars produce no winners,” as Vietnam, a growing U.S. trading partner, braces for 46% duties once Trump’s 90-day pause ends.