Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily.

today, NATO convenes for its annual summit in the Hague. In India, authorities face accusations of forcibly deporting Muslims to Bangladesh, fuelling fears of rising persecution. Meanwhile, U.S. airstrikes on Iran have sparked legal concerns and heightened regional instability.

Our lead story examines the RSF’s strategic capture of the Libya–Sudan–Egypt tri-border area.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 U.S. joins Israeli strikes on Iran, sparking global legal alarm: The United States joined Israel’s military campaign against Iran, launching airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. President Donald Trump praised the attacks and declared it a joint effort to eliminate what he called a “horrible threat to Israel,” without citing self-defence—a key requirement under international law. Israel has bombed Iranian targets daily since June 12, reportedly killing over 200 civilians and injuring 2,000. Tehran responded with missile strikes on Israeli military and civilian sites, killing at least 24. International law experts have condemned Israeli and American attacks as illegal. Targeting nuclear facilities and civilian areas violates the UN Charter, the Geneva Conventions, and Iran’s rights under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. UN bodies are now under pressure to respond, but U.S. veto power casts doubt on accountability.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Home Minister Shah rules out Indus treaty revival with Pakistan: India’s Home Minister Amit Shah has declared that the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan will “never be restored,” and that water from rivers previously allocated to Pakistan will be redirected to India’s Rajasthan state via new canals. The announcement follows an April attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, which New Delhi blames on Pakistan, prompting India to suspend participation in the 1960 treaty. The agreement, which has survived decades of hostility, granted Pakistan access to critical western rivers. Legal experts say India’s unilateral suspension violates international law, as the treaty permits termination or revision only through mutual consent. Islamabad, calling any blockage of water an “act of war,” is considering a legal challenge. Shah’s remarks signal a hardening stance amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions.

3️⃣ 🇰🇭 🇹🇭 Cambodia Prime Minister Hun Manet halts Thai fuel imports amid escalating border dispute: Cambodia will suspend all fuel and gas imports from Thailand, Prime Minister Hun Manet announced, as border tensions flare over the disputed Emerald Triangle region. The move follows last month’s deadly clash in the area where Cambodia, Thailand, and Laos converge. Cambodia’s government said domestic energy needs will be met through alternative sources. In retaliation for Thai security restrictions at border crossings, Cambodia closed two checkpoints and advised citizens to avoid travel to Thailand. Thailand's consular office issued a warning for its nationals in Cambodia to steer clear of protest zones. The dispute has also triggered political fallout in Bangkok, forcing Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to apologise after a leaked call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen stirred domestic backlash.

4️⃣ 🇪🇸 🇳🇱 NATO leaders endorse 5 percent defence goal with flexibility for Spain: NATO allies have agreed to a new defence spending target of 5 percent of GDP, but with language allowing Spain to opt out, following last-minute resistance from Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. The compromise—changing “we commit” to “allies commit”—gives Spain flexibility, as long as it meets updated NATO capability benchmarks. Sánchez hailed the deal as a win, pledging 2.1 percent of GDP to defence while preserving domestic priorities. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte confirmed Spain’s sovereign right to chart its own path, with spending reviews set for 2029. The target, proposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, includes 3.5 percent for traditional military needs and 1.5 percent for related investments. Allies must meet it by 2035, though Trump said it would not apply to the U.S.

5️⃣ 🇵🇦 Panama declares state of emergency in Bocas del Toro: Panama has declared a five-day state of emergency in the western province of Bocas del Toro following violent protests over controversial pension reforms. Protesters, including unionised workers and Indigenous groups, are accused by authorities of setting fire to a stadium. Clashes this week left one dead and dozens injured. Presidential Minister Juan Carlos Orillac said the move suspends some constitutional rights to restore order against “radical groups.” The unrest, led partly by workers from Chiquita’s banana plantations, escalated after thousands were fired over strikes. Tensions have also risen nationally over President Jose Raul Mulino’s military agreement with Donald Trump and plans to reopen a major copper mine, sparking wider demonstrations across the country.

Major Story

🇸🇩 🇱🇾 🇪🇬 RSF SEIZES KEY BORDER TRIANGLE AS SUDAN’S WAR CONTINUES TO REGIONALISE

Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have captured the critical border triangle linking Sudan, Libya, and Egypt, an area vital for trade, smuggling, and military supply lines. The seizure strengthens the RSF’s grip over northwest Sudan and gives it access to a long, porous frontier, providing resupply routes and a launchpad for potential offensives into the Nile Valley and Northern state, strongholds of the Sudanese army.

Shift in Military Momentum

Following its loss of Khartoum, the RSF has gained ground across North Darfur. With control over the tri-border zone, it can now reduce reliance on supply lines from Chad, which have become riskier due to international scrutiny and Sudanese airstrikes. Increased Emirati-linked air traffic into Libya’s Kufra district suggests that the RSF's resupply network is being rerouted through Libya.

Regional Alliances and Escalation Risk

The RSF’s advance has drawn in regional actors. The Subul El Salam Battalion—aligned with Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar and allegedly backed by the UAE, has been accused of aiding the RSF, despite official denials. Egypt, a supporter of both Haftar and the Sudanese army, faces a strategic dilemma. Türkiye, which supports the Sudanese army and maintains relations with Haftar’s rivals in Tripoli, may intensify its involvement.

Rising Regional Stakes

As the RSF pushes closer to Egypt’s southern border and reconfigures regional power balances, the war risks spilling across frontiers. The involvement of foreign powers with overlapping alliances is fuelling concerns of a broader regional conflict. With the Red Sea region already fragile, Sudan’s war is becoming a flashpoint with implications far beyond its borders.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇧🇩 India accused of Muslim deportations to Bangladesh amid rising persecution fears: India is facing mounting criticism for allegedly deporting Indian Muslim citizens to Bangladesh without due process. Human rights groups report that thousands, mostly Muslims, have been detained across several states, including Assam, Delhi, and Gujarat, and forcibly expelled, often at gunpoint by India’s Border Security Force. Some were later returned by Bangladeshi border guards after being found to be Indian citizens. Victims describe being dumped in forests or rivers, threatened with violence, and denied legal recourse. Bangladesh has formally objected, warning India’s actions breach international law. The campaign, intensified under Operation Sindhoor following an attack in Kashmir, is widely seen as part of the ruling BJP’s Hindu nationalist agenda. Activists say the expulsions mark a dangerous escalation in the systematic targeting of India’s 200 million Muslims.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇨🇳 DR Congo extends cobalt export ban to curb oversupply and stabilise prices: The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended its cobalt export ban by three months to manage excess supply and stabilise prices, its mining regulator announced. The ban, first imposed in February after cobalt prices plunged to a nine-year low of $10 per pound, was due to expire this weekend. The Strategic Mineral Substances Market Regulation and Control Authority (ARECOMS) said the extension was necessary given continued market oversupply. Congo, the world’s top cobalt supplier, will reassess the measure in September. Authorities are also reviewing how export quotas are distributed among mining firms. While companies like Glencore support the quota system, top producer CMOC of China is lobbying for the ban to be lifted. A final decision on whether to maintain or modify the suspension is expected later this quarter.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics