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📰 India’s mega dam sparks crisis

📰 India’s mega dam sparks crisis

and Sudan’s war worsens

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 30, 2025

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Hello and welcome back.

Today, Israel’s UNRWA ban threatens regional peace, warns director Lazzarini at the UN Security Council, while Washington enacts a humanitarian waiver amid the U.S. foreign aid freeze.

Meanwhile, India and Indonesia strengthen defence ties, and our top story examines The Middle Corridor—a potential economic lifeline for Western Europe as the Russia-Ukraine war continues.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇨🇳 🇧🇩 Siang river hydro dam threatens India–China–Bangladesh trilateralism, indigenous communities: India is pressing ahead with the construction of a $13.2 billion hydroelectric dam on the Siang River to counter China’s massive upstream Medog dam in Tibet, sparking local protests and concerns over devastating impacts on millions downstream in India and Bangladesh. The Siang River, sacred to the Adi tribal community, is central to their livelihoods, but the proposed dam will submerge at least 20 villages and partially flood nearly two dozen more, displacing thousands. Amid growing resistance, paramilitary forces have been deployed, highlighting the geostrategic rivalry between India and China, which have clashed over water and security. Experts warn the dams could destabilize the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, heightening flood and earthquake risks while disproportionately harming Indigenous communities dependent on these critical water resources.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 Washington implements humanitarian waiver amidst U.S. foreign aid freeze: The Trump administration has reversed its decision to suspend nearly all foreign aid, now allowing exemptions for essential humanitarian programs involving medicine, food, and shelter, according to a memo from Secretary of State Marco Rubio. However, other aid programs remain frozen unless specific waivers are granted, causing uncertainty among humanitarian organizations. The suspension, which initially halted assistance for counterterrorism training and counternarcotics efforts, has disrupted critical aid deliveries, including vaccines and malaria prevention supplies. While the State Department argues the review ensures aid aligns with Trump's "America First" agenda, critics warn the policy shift threatens global health initiatives, including HIV treatment in Uganda, and leaves many programs in limbo.

3️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇸🇾 Iraqi, Syrian Kurdish autonomous zones pursue unified front: Two prominent Kurdish leaders, Masoud Barzani of Iraq and Mazloum Abdi of Syria, held a historic meeting to discuss unifying Kurdish factions in Syria following the fall of Bashar Al-Assad's regime. The talks, brokered by the US, aimed to strengthen the Kurdish negotiating position with Syria's new Sunni Islamist authorities in Damascus. While the meeting was widely welcomed by Kurdish communities, with celebrations in northeastern Syria, some analysts remain cautious, noting that significant challenges persist in bridging deep-rooted divisions between Kurdish groups. Barzani emphasized the importance of unity and collaboration among Syrian Kurdish parties, acknowledging the meeting as a first step in navigating Syria's political transition.

4️⃣ 🇮🇹 🇦🇱 Italy’s controversial Albania deportation scheme resumes: Italy has transferred 49 asylum seekers to Albania as part of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s contentious policy to process refugee claims outside the country, despite legal challenges and criticism from human rights groups. The Italian navy vessel docked in Shëngjin on Tuesday, carrying individuals intercepted in the Mediterranean near Lampedusa, who were then taken to a detention centre in Gjadër. This comes amid a rise in migrant arrivals, with over 3,300 people landing in southern Italy in January—more than twice the number from the same period last year. The policy, which involves detaining up to 3,000 migrants per month in Albanian facilities under a €670 million deal, faces scrutiny from European courts and opposition figures who accuse Meloni of undermining asylum rights.

5️⃣🇸🇩 🇦🇪 🇺🇸 Washington’s sanctions on RSF are cynical as long as UAE supplies weapons: For over 21 months, Sudan has endured devastating conflict, displacing millions and plunging over half the population into dire humanitarian need. The violence, largely driven by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), has resulted in genocide, ethnic targeting, and widespread destruction. The UAE’s support for the RSF with weapons and financial backing has been critical in enabling these atrocities. In response, the U.S. has formally recognized the genocide and imposed sanctions on the respective heads of the RSF and SAF. However, this recognition must now translate into urgent action, including halting arms sales to the UAE and holding complicit actors accountable to prevent further suffering in Sudan, say international legal experts and human rights advocates.

Major Story

🇪🇺 🇨🇳 THE MIDDLE CORRIDOR: WESTERN EUROPE’S ECONOMIC LIFELINE

The Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), is emerging as a vital trade artery between Western China and Europe. By bypassing both Russia’s Northern Corridor and the Suez Canal, this route offers a shorter, more efficient alternative for global trade. Its importance has surged, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, positioning the corridor as an appealing option for businesses seeking to diversify supply chains.

Strategic Importance and Challenges

The corridor integrates rail, road, and maritime transport, linking China, Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Europe. Goods travel via rail from China through Kazakhstan, cross the Caspian Sea via ports in Azerbaijan, and continue by rail through Georgia and Turkey. This multi-modal system reduces shipping time to 10-15 days, compared to 15-60 days via traditional routes. Its capacity and efficiency are further enhanced by Turkey’s strategic role in connecting Europe and Asia.

Despite its potential, the corridor faces several obstacles. These include limited transport capacity, outdated infrastructure, and regulatory inconsistencies across transit countries. Geopolitical risks, such as instability in the region and varying national interests, add further complexity. Additionally, logistical bottlenecks, particularly in the Caspian Sea, hinder its full operational capacity.

Future Outlook

Ongoing investments in infrastructure and harmonized trade policies are key to realizing the corridor's potential. With substantial backing from international financial institutions, the Middle Corridor is poised to play a central role in reshaping Eurasian trade, offering a resilient alternative to traditional routes.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇮🇩 India, Indonesia upgrade defence bilateralism: During President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to India, the two nations deepened their defence and economic cooperation. India pledged support for Indonesia’s defence modernisation, sharing expertise and experience, while both sides agreed to address trade barriers and enhance ties in areas such as counterterrorism, healthcare, infrastructure, and renewable energy. Indonesia and India are also negotiating a $450 million BrahMos missile system deal. The two leaders discussed resolving trade issues, with bilateral trade surging to $29.4 billion in 2023-24, and committed to concluding the ongoing review of the ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement. They also reaffirmed the importance of regional peace, security, and the peaceful resolution of South China Sea disputes under international law.

2️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 Israel’s UNRWA ban ‘jeopardises peace,’ says Lazzarini: Israel’s decision to ban UNRWA is threatening regional stability and undermining prospects for peace, according to the agency’s chief, Philippe Lazzarini. Addressing the UN Security Council, he warned that the ongoing crackdown on UNRWA is not only disrupting vital aid but also eroding Palestinian trust in the international community. Israel has ordered the agency to vacate its East Jerusalem headquarters by Thursday, following legislation passed in October that prohibits its operations and labels it a terrorist organization. Although UNRWA primarily operates in Gaza and the West Bank, it relies heavily on Israeli cooperation for border access, making the ban a significant obstacle to humanitarian assistance.