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📰 India strikes Pakistan

📰 India strikes Pakistan

and Oman brokers U.S.–Houthi ceasefire

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
May 07, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Developments from Sudan today, where General al-Burhan has vowed “retribution” following a third day of drone strikes on Port Sudan, and Khartoum has formally severed diplomatic ties with the UAE over its alleged support for the RSF. Meanwhile, across the Red Sea, a rare window for de-escalation emerges as Oman brokers a U.S.–Houthi ceasefire agreement.

Today’s lead story: Israel’s Gaza blockade faces legal scrutiny at the ICC — a potential turning point in international law.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇵🇰 🇮🇳 India carries out missile strikes on Pakistan: India launched airstrikes on nine locations in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, killing at least three people, as the two nuclear-armed neighbours exchanged heavy gunfire and shelling across disputed Kashmir. The escalation follows a deadly April 22 attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 dead. Hours before the strikes, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and vowed to stop cross-border water flows, prompting Pakistan to warn such action could be considered an “act of war.” Both nations have since severed trade ties, expelled diplomats, and suspended visas.

2️⃣ 🇴🇲 🇾🇪 🇺🇸 Oman brokers U.S.–Yemen ceasefire: The United States and Yemen’s Houthi movement have agreed to halt mutual hostilities under an Oman-brokered truce, aimed at protecting Red Sea maritime traffic. President Donald Trump said the Houthis had "capitulated" and confirmed an immediate halt to U.S. strikes, though Houthi leaders vowed to continue attacking Israel. Hours later, Israeli warplanes bombed Yemen’s Sanaa airport in retaliation for a Houthi missile strike on Tel Aviv, destroying infrastructure and causing civilian casualties. The United Nations warned of a dangerous regional escalation as both sides traded strikes amid mounting tensions over Israel’s Gaza offensive.

3️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇦🇪 Sudan cuts ties with UAE over RSF backing: Sudan has formally cut diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, declaring it a “state of aggression” for allegedly supplying advanced weapons to the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The decision came after three days of drone attacks on Port Sudan, targeting oil infrastructure, military bases, and civilian areas. Defence Minister Yassin Ibrahim accused the UAE of escalating its involvement after realising its “local agent,” the RSF, was facing defeat, and said Sudan reserves the right to respond by any means necessary. The government claims the RSF has used strategic drones supplied by the UAE to strike multiple sites across Sudan, threatening civilian lives and regional stability.

4️⃣ 🇩🇪 Merz confirmed as German chancellor: Friedrich Merz has officially become Germany’s chancellor after a rocky start, narrowly securing the post in a second-round vote following an unexpected initial failure. Despite his CDU/CSU alliance forming a coalition with the SPD, 18 coalition lawmakers withheld support in Tuesday’s secret ballot, exposing internal fractures in the new government. Though Merz ultimately secured 325 votes—above the 316 threshold—his early stumble was a historic embarrassment and highlights the fragility of his administration. The far-right AfD capitalised on the chaos, renewing calls for fresh elections and claiming the episode proves the governing coalition’s weak foundation.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇮🇳 UK, India broker landmark trade deal: India and the United Kingdom have concluded a trade agreement after three years of negotiations, aiming to increase annual bilateral trade by £25.5 billion ($34bn), UK GDP by £4.8 billion ($6.4bn), and wages by £2.2 billion ($2.9bn), according to the UK government. The deal will eliminate tariffs on 90% of tariff lines over ten years, with immediate reductions on goods such as alcohol, cars, cosmetics, medical devices, and chocolate. India said 99% of its exports will be duty-free under the agreement, which also introduces a social security exemption scheme for workers. Talks on a separate investment treaty and standards continue.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 ISRAEL’S GAZA BLOCKADE AND THE ICC’S STARVATION CASE: A LEGAL RECKONING

In early March, Israel reimposed a total blockade on Gaza, halting the flow of food, fuel, medicine, and electricity in what officials described as a strategy to pressure Hamas into concessions. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir publicly defended the policy as a method to intensify suffering in the enclave, while Likud MK Moshe Saada bluntly endorsed starvation as a legitimate tactic. With humanitarian access cut, the UN World Food Program reported its supplies exhausted, and all 25 UN-supported bakeries shuttered. Gaza now faces its longest stretch without relief since the war began, with 91% of residents lacking drinking water.

This siege has drawn the attention of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant—not for conventional war crimes alone, but for intentionally using starvation as a weapon. This marks the first time the ICC has made starvation the central charge in a war crimes prosecution. The Rome Statute identifies starvation of civilians as a war crime when it involves willfully obstructing humanitarian relief. The blunt admissions by Israeli officials provide rare and direct evidence of intent.

Historically, starvation has been a weapon of choice for powerful states—used extensively in both World Wars and often shielded from prosecution by legal loopholes and political calculation. The tactic was only explicitly outlawed in 1977, and even then, prosecutions have been virtually non-existent. The ICC case could therefore set a groundbreaking precedent.

Yet the path forward is uncertain. Proving intent remains difficult, and the ICC faces political headwinds, especially from the United States. Still, the case signals a shift in global legal norms and raises a critical question: can even powerful, Western-aligned states be held accountable for violating humanitarian law?

With new warrants potentially forthcoming and public scrutiny growing, the ICC’s Gaza case may become a turning point in the effort to criminalise starvation as a method of war—and to reinforce international law where it has long been ignored.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 🇸🇾 Trump seeks renewed Saudi alignment, faces pushback on Gaza and Syria: Donald Trump plans to visit Saudi Arabia following Pope Francis’ funeral at the Vatican, mirroring his 2017 itinerary and reaffirming close ties with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Trump is expected to push for greater Saudi investment in the U.S. and support for the Abraham Accords, but Riyadh remains firm on linking Israel normalisation to progress on Palestinian statehood. Saudi officials are also at odds with Trump’s Syria policy and wary of Israeli strikes on Iran, which could drag them into conflict. While MBS may uphold a $600 billion investment pledge, economic and political divergences—particularly on Gaza—threaten to limit Trump’s leverage.

2️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 Al-Burhan vows ‘retribution’ after third day of Port Sudan drone strikes: Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan vowed “retribution” following drone strikes on Port Sudan that ignited massive fires in fuel depots. Accusing the UAE of backing the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Burhan declared that Sudan’s armed forces and popular resistance remain united in defeating the militia and its allies. Civil defence teams continue battling fires amid fears of an environmental disaster in a city hosting hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians. Meanwhile, the RSF called for a new political order, while former PM Abdalla Hamdok urged both sides to cease hostilities to prevent further national collapse.