Hello and welcome back.

In the Indo-Pacific, Peter Dutton pledges to raise Australia’s defence spending to 3% of GDP if elected, while ASEAN grapples with mounting cyber threats to maritime and subsea infrastructure. Across the Middle East and North Africa, Jordan moves to ban the Muslim Brotherhood, and Morocco capitalises on Algeria’s strained relations with the Sahel’s AES bloc.

Our main story returns to the strategic imperatives for U.S.–China stability.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India blames Pakistan after Kashmir attack kills 26, suspends treaty and expels diplomats: India has announced retaliatory measures against Pakistan after 26 people, mostly Hindu civilians, were killed in a militant attack in Kashmir, though no group has been officially blamed. In response, New Delhi suspended participation in a key water treaty, shut a critical land border, downgraded diplomatic ties, and expelled Pakistani military staff. Officials suggested the attack had cross-border links, while Pakistan denied involvement, calling it a domestic matter. Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Modi as calls grow for a decisive response amid renewed fears of conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇨🇳 Myanmar’s junta to extend ceasefire, China to monitor: China has dispatched a team to Myanmar to monitor a ceasefire it helped broker between the junta and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Beijing’s foreign ministry confirmed. The MNDAA—largely comprising ethnic Chinese fighters—captured key territory in Lashio near the Chinese border last year, prompting talks in Kunming that led to a formal ceasefire. Chinese officials say both parties acknowledged Beijing’s role in promoting peace and pledged to continue dialogue. The agreement, separate from ASEAN's wider ceasefire efforts, comes amid continued clashes and follows a deadly earthquake that has worsened Myanmar’s humanitarian crisis.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 White House draft peace plan proposes freezing Ukraine war frontlines with concessions to Russia: The Biden administration’s draft peace proposal reportedly includes freezing the Russia-Ukraine frontlines and granting Moscow significant concessions—among them U.S. recognition of Crimea as Russian, partial sanctions relief, and an agreement barring Ukraine from NATO. Vice President JD Vance confirmed the plan envisions redrawing boundaries “close to” current lines, with both Russia and Ukraine ceding territory. In exchange, Kyiv would receive vague security guarantees from European states and retain control of the Zaporizhzhia power plant, which would be operated by the U.S. to supply energy to both countries. Zelenskyy rejected recognition of Crimea’s annexation, while Trump criticised his stance as obstructive to achieving peace.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump to ‘substantially’ reduce tariffs on China: U.S. President Donald Trump stated that while tariffs on Chinese imports will “come down substantially,” they will not be removed entirely. His comments followed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s closed-door remarks calling the current tariffs unsustainable and suggesting a possible de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions. Despite the economic strain—stock market volatility, rising interest rates, and mounting global criticism—Trump insisted negotiations with China were progressing and reiterated a cooperative tone toward President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, Beijing warned countries against trade deals that harm Chinese interests, as reports emerged of China pressuring third-party firms to limit exports to U.S. defence contractors.

5️⃣ 🇲🇦 🇩🇿 🇲🇱 Morocco takes advantage of Algeria-AES Sahel rift: On the night of March 31, Algeria announced it had downed a Turkish-made drone operated by Mali’s army after it crossed into its airspace. Mali denied the incursion, claiming the drone was shot down on its soil, and responded by recalling its ambassador—prompting similar moves from Burkina Faso and Niger. These developments have deepened a rift between Algiers and Sahelian juntas, whose military-led regimes have distanced themselves from Algeria’s past role as a regional mediator. With Mali now favouring military force—backed by Russian support via Wagner—over dialogue, Algeria’s influence has faded, while Morocco courts Sahelian regimes with strategic economic initiatives. Amid regional polarization, internal repression, and eroding trust, Algiers risks being sidelined unless it recalibrates its diplomacy and coordinates with new power brokers like Moscow.

Major Story

🇨🇳 🇺🇸 REASSURANCE, NOT RIVALRY: A STRATEGIC IMPERATIVE FOR U.S.-CHINA STABILITY 

The intensifying strategic rivalry between the United States and China is unfolding in a world already destabilized by war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific. As nuclear-armed powers, even a limited military confrontation between Washington and Beijing would carry catastrophic consequences. An analysis from Toda Institute’s Kai He underscores the importance of reassurance as a complement—not a substitute—to deterrence. Unlike deterrence, which relies on threats to prevent aggression, reassurance aims to build confidence through credible, peaceful signals, reducing the risk of miscalculation and escalation.

Effective reassurance requires clear commitments, reciprocal strategic restraint, and the cultivation of shared norms and regimes—especially across flashpoints like Taiwan, the South China Sea, and cybersecurity, writes He. Practical steps include formal communication channels, limits on provocative manoeuvres, and mutually reinforcing actions to reduce tensions.

Yet, challenges remain. Domestic political constraints, risk-taking behaviour, and escalating competition complicate trust-building. Without political will and sustained diplomacy, even the best-crafted reassurance strategies may fall short. Still, strategic reassurance remains essential to managing U.S.–China rivalry in a volatile multipolar world.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇯🇴 Jordan bans Muslim Brotherhood: Jordan has declared the Muslim Brotherhood an illegal organization and banned all related political activity, following accusations of plotting attacks. Authorities raided the headquarters of the Islamic Action Front, the Brotherhood-linked opposition party, seizing documents and warning of accelerated asset confiscations. Officials cited alleged involvement of group members in efforts to manufacture explosives and destabilise national security, while 16 individuals were arrested last week for weapons and missile-related offenses. The Islamic Action Front denied any ties to the banned Brotherhood and affirmed its legal status, while analysts say the crackdown marks a decisive rupture in Jordan’s relationship with the group.

2️⃣ 🇦🇺 Dutton to increase Australia’s defence spending to 3% of GDP, if elected: Opposition leader Peter Dutton has pledged to lift Australia’s defence spending to 3% of GDP if elected, aligning with U.S. expectations under Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda. The Coalition plans to invest $21 billion over five years, with further increases to reach the target within a decade—funding new drones, missiles, and expanded AUKUS infrastructure. While Labor criticised the proposal as vague and fiscally ungrounded, the Coalition argues it is a necessary response to rising global instability and authoritarian threats. Defence Minister Richard Marles dismissed the announcement as “a pathetic whimper,” contrasting it with Labor’s record-setting peacetime investment.

3️⃣ 🇸🇬 🇹🇭 🇨🇳 ASEAN confronts rising cyber threats to maritime and undersea infrastructure: As ASEAN accelerates digitalisation, its maritime domain is becoming increasingly vulnerable to cyber threats and strategic competition. Cyberattacks on ports, shipping systems, and critical undersea infrastructure—particularly submarine cables—could be exploited in hybrid warfare amid intensifying US-China rivalry. Recent efforts, such as Singapore and Thailand’s proposals for ASEAN defence cooperation and multilateral statements on cable security, reflect a growing awareness of these risks. With both China and the US positioning undersea cables as strategic assets, ASEAN must now balance economic connectivity with resilient policies and technical safeguards to protect its maritime digital infrastructure.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics