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📰 Indonesia and Malaysia clash

📰 Indonesia and Malaysia clash

and Bolsonaro accused of Argentina escape plan

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 22, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, Singapore navigates between its deep defence partnership with the United States and growing regional military ties, India test-fires its continent-spanning Agni-5 missile, and Tehran confronts mounting unrest in Sistan and Baluchestan. In Brazil, police allege Bolsonaro plotted an escape to Argentina ahead of his coup trial.

Our lead story turns to Bolivia, where voters have delivered a historic repudiation of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS).

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇪🇺 Moscow rejects Western-backed security guarantees for Ukraine: Russia has reiterated its hard line on postwar security arrangements for Ukraine, with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissing any guarantees negotiated without Moscow’s participation. His remarks followed last week’s Trump–Putin summit in Alaska and undercut hopes of progress toward a settlement. Lavrov restated the Kremlin’s maximalist demands: a neutral Ukraine stripped of NATO ambitions, military capacity, and subject to guarantees involving Russia and China — conditions the West has long rejected. He also revived the failed 2022 Istanbul model, where Moscow sought veto power over any defence commitments. While Trump has promised “Article 5-like” protections for Kyiv, without U.S. troop deployments, European leaders remain sceptical of Russian sincerity. Lavrov’s stance underscores how far apart the sides remain on any credible framework for peace.

2️⃣ 🇮🇩 🇲🇾 Indonesia and Malaysia clash over Ambalat maritime dispute: The long-running maritime dispute between Indonesia and Malaysia has resurfaced, centred on the oil- and gas-rich Ambalat Block in the Sulawesi Sea. Malaysia’s 1979 boundary map claims the area, but Jakarta rejects it as baseless under UNCLOS. Although the ICJ awarded nearby islands to Malaysia in 2002, it left Ambalat unresolved, fuelling recurring tensions over overlapping drilling concessions by ENI, Unocal and Petronas. Recent friction was triggered when Malaysian officials dismissed the term “Ambalat”, insisting on “Sulawesi Sea”, a move Indonesia sees as symbolic encroachment. President Prabowo has reaffirmed Indonesia’s claim but urged peaceful dialogue, citing deep bilateral ties and ASEAN solidarity. A joint development model, akin to the Malaysia–Thailand Gulf accord, could offer a way forward, turning a flashpoint into an example of regional cooperation.

3️⃣ 🇧🇷 🇦🇷 Brazil police claim Bolsonaro plotted escape to Argentina ahead of coup trial: Brazilian federal police say they found a draft asylum request on Jair Bolsonaro’s phone indicating he planned to flee to Argentina ahead of his September trial for allegedly plotting a military coup. The former president, already barred from office and under house arrest, faces more than 40 years in prison if convicted. The letter, addressed to Argentine President Javier Milei, described Bolsonaro as a “politically persecuted person” facing “imminent arrest.” Investigators allege the draft shows intent to evade justice. The report also accuses Bolsonaro and his son Eduardo of lobbying Donald Trump’s administration to pressure Brazil’s supreme court, with Washington imposing tariffs and sanctions in response. The revelations deepen the turmoil surrounding Bolsonaro’s trial, which could reshape Brazil’s political landscape.

4️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel offensive on Gaza City stalls ceasefire progress: Hamas accused Israel of showing “blatant disregard” for mediation efforts after the Israeli army announced an operation to seize Gaza City, home to nearly a million residents and displaced people. The group accepted a 60-day ceasefire proposal from Qatar and Egypt earlier this week, which included exchanging half the Israeli captives in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners and halting Israel’s military campaign. Israel has yet to respond. Despite ongoing talks—Israeli minister Ron Dermer met Qatari officials in Paris on Wednesday—airstrikes intensified, killing at least 81 people since dawn, according to Al Jazeera. Hamas also demonstrated its continued capacity for large-scale attacks on Israeli troops, underscoring the gap between diplomatic manoeuvres abroad and the escalating war on the ground.

5️⃣ 🇳🇨 🇫🇷 FLNKS rejects Bougival Accord, deepening New Caledonia’s political crisis: The Bougival Accord, struck in Paris last month between New Caledonian leaders and President Emmanuel Macron, was billed as a breakthrough toward a new political settlement. Instead, it unraveled immediately. The pro-independence coalition FLNKS, which co-signed the deal, has now rejected it outright, calling it an “affront to the Kanak people” and incompatible with their sovereignty goals. At issue are disputed voter rolls, resource allocations favouring loyalist provinces, and claims that France sidelined independence proposals while presenting the text as final. FLNKS has replaced its Paris negotiator Emmanuel Tjibaou with Christian Tein, who insists on direct talks with France in Nouméa, excluding loyalists. With Overseas Minister Manuel Valls due in New Caledonia, the standoff risks stalemate, underscoring the fragility of France’s latest attempt at reconciliation.

Major Story

🇧🇴 BOLIVIA TURNS THE PAGE ON MAS

On 17 August, Bolivians delivered a historic rebuke to the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), rejecting the party that dominated politics for nearly two decades. Founded by Evo Morales, MAS once embodied the political awakening of Bolivia’s indigenous and poor, offering a counterweight to the country’s entrenched elites. Yet after years of corruption scandals, economic decline, and Morales’ increasingly personalist grip on power, the electorate turned decisively toward change. MAS’s candidate, Eduardo del Castillo, won just 3 percent of the vote; in congress, the party secured only a single seat.

From Boom to Crisis

MAS’s early success was inseparable from the commodities boom of the 2000s. Morales nationalised Bolivia’s gas fields in 2006, channelling windfalls into subsidies and social programmes that cut poverty and won loyalty. But when prices collapsed, the state-owned sector was left overstretched and underinvested. By 2024, growth had slowed to near stagnation, reserves were depleted, inflation exceeded 20 percent, and fuel shortages deepened social hardship. This economic unraveling – compounded by soaring food prices – decisively eroded MAS’s base.

Bolivia’s New Direction

The runoff on 19 October pits Rodrigo Paz, a centrist senator, against conservative former interim president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga. Whoever wins will inherit daunting challenges: stabilising the economy, likely through an IMF programme requiring subsidy cuts; and accelerating long-stalled lithium development. Both candidates have signalled warmer ties with Washington, raising the prospect of a geopolitical realignment, indicating a foreign policy that drifts away from China and MAS-aligned Venezuela and Cuba.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇵🇰 Tehran faces rising instability in Sistan and Baluchestan: As Iran navigates the fallout of war with Israel, U.S. pressure, and looming UN sanctions, its south-eastern province of Sistan and Baluchestan remains a tinderbox. Home to the marginalised Sunni Baluch, the region suffers from poverty, repression, and environmental decline, with grievances deepened by the “bloody Friday” killings of 2022. Militants like Jaish al-Adl exploit these conditions, fuelling clashes with Iranian forces and sparking cross-border tensions with Pakistan. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s appointment of a Sunni Baluch governor marked a symbolic shift, yet Tehran continues to oscillate between token inclusion and coercion. Without investment in infrastructure, water management, and political representation, the province’s discontent will fester, threatening wider instability. Baluchestan’s plight mirrors broader national fractures Tehran can ill afford to ignore.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 India test-fires continentally-ranged Agni-5 missile: India announced the successful test of its Agni-5 intermediate-range ballistic missile on Wednesday from Odisha, confirming it met all technical and operational benchmarks. Designed to carry nuclear warheads, the system is central to India’s deterrence posture against China and Pakistan, both nuclear-armed rivals. Relations with Beijing remain fraught since the deadly 2020 border clash, though Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in China this month, his first visit since 2018. The test comes amid broader geopolitical friction: India is under U.S. pressure to curtail Russian oil imports while Washington threatens to double tariffs on Indian goods. For New Delhi, the Agni-5 underscores its pursuit of strategic autonomy and strengthened defence amid intensifying regional rivalries.

3️⃣ 🇸🇬 🇺🇸 Singapore balances US defence partnership with regional military ties: New Lowy Institute research highlights Singapore’s unique approach to defence cooperation. Despite its small size, the city-state fields Southeast Asia’s most capable military and relies on external partnerships to expand training space, access advanced technologies, and hone operational expertise. The United States remains Singapore’s closest partner outside the region, anchored by landmark agreements like the 1983 intelligence-sharing pact and the 2005 Strategic Framework Agreement, which grants US forces access to Singaporean facilities and underpins regular bilateral exercises such as Commando Sling and Pacific Griffin. Yet Singapore is far from US-centric. Around 70% of its 2023–24 exercises involved Southeast Asian states, with Indonesia its most important neighbour. Complemented by defence technology partnerships with France, Britain, Australia, and India, Singapore’s strategy reflects a careful balance: global reach, regional trust, and constant readiness.