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📰 Iran debates withdrawal from Nuclear treaty

📰 Iran debates withdrawal from Nuclear treaty

and Cambodia threatens Thailand with import ban

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 17, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Today, Human Rights Watch issues warns against Russia’s use of drone-deployed landmines. In Australia, a majority now believe China will surpass the U.S. as the dominant global power by 2035, as public trust in Washington hits a historic low. In Latin America, Ecuador’s President Noboa doubles down on a hardline security agenda amid mounting gang violence. Meanwhile, tensions intensify in both the Israel-Iran conflict and the Thailand-Cambodia border dispute.

Our lead story explores the resurgence of “spheres of influence” as a central theme in today’s shifting world order.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran debates nuclear treaty exit as Israeli strikes escalate and pressure mounts: As Israeli strikes intensify, killing senior IRGC leaders and damaging infrastructure, domestic calls in Iran to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are gaining traction. Hardline lawmakers urge the government to pursue atomic weapons and restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint. While Foreign Minister Araghchi says Tehran would halt retaliation if Israel ends its aggression, voices within Iran argue that deterrence now requires a nuclear shift. Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” aims to cripple Iran’s nuclear programme but risks regional chaos. Though Supreme Leader Khamenei’s fatwa bans nuclear arms, rising existential threats may prompt a policy reversal. Closing the strait would disrupt global oil flow, raise prices, and risk war. The crisis deepens, with Iran torn between restraint and a growing internal push toward escalation.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇪🇺 Trump resists fresh Russia sanctions, urges Europe to act first: At the G7 summit in Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump rejected calls for immediate new sanctions on Russia, stating Europe should act first and noting that “sanctions cost us a lot of money.” Despite EU and U.K. pressure to lower the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45, Trump argued sanctions hurt the U.S. economy and should follow renewed peace efforts. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer subtly rebuked Trump, asserting Russia “doesn’t hold all the cards” and urging leaders to escalate economic pressure. Starmer and other G7 heads plan to announce new sanctions Tuesday, though details remain scarce. Trump, meanwhile, reiterated calls for Iran to deescalate tensions with Israel, as G7 leaders also push for unity on Middle East diplomacy.

3️⃣ 🇺🇳 UN cuts global aid programmes as funding plummets: Facing the worst funding shortfall in its history, the United Nations has cut its 2025 humanitarian appeal from $44 billion to $29 billion, citing "brutal choices" forced by plummeting donor support. UN aid chief Tom Fletcher warned that only $5.6 billion has been received to date—just 13% of initial needs—leaving millions without life-saving assistance. The crisis has been intensified by U.S. President Trump’s dramatic foreign aid reductions and shifting priorities in other Western states toward defence. Fletcher called for “just one percent” of global military spending to prevent further catastrophe. The UN will now focus limited resources on those facing famine or catastrophic conditions in hotspots including Gaza, Sudan, and Haiti. Meanwhile, the WFP and FAO warn the window to prevent mass starvation is rapidly closing.

4️⃣ 🇰🇭 🇹🇭 Cambodia issues import ban ultimatum to Bangkok, border dispute escalates: Tensions between Cambodia and Thailand have deepened after Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen threatened to ban fruit and vegetable imports unless Thailand lifts border restrictions within 24 hours. The ultimatum follows last month’s deadly clash at the Emerald Triangle, where Cambodian and Thai troops exchanged fire, killing a Cambodian soldier. While both armies claimed self-defence and agreed to reposition troops, Thailand tightened border controls and threatened to cut electricity supplies. Cambodia responded by placing troops on alert, suspending Thai imports and media content, and halting electricity purchases. Despite weekend talks in Phnom Penh, little progress was made. Cambodia has since requested International Court of Justice intervention to settle four disputed sites, including ancient temples. Thailand, however, insists on bilateral negotiations and dismissed a prior ICJ ruling in Cambodia’s favour.

5️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Trump-China trade deal to restore rare earth supply for U.S. weapons manufacturers: Last week, Trump announced a draft trade agreement with China that promises to resume rare earth exports, easing U.S. defence industry fears of production shortfalls. The deal—still pending final approval—includes assurances from Beijing to provide critical minerals like samarium, used in precision-guided weapons and advanced aircraft. Lockheed Martin, the largest American user of samarium magnets, relies entirely on Chinese supply. Trump's team had previously clashed with China over export restrictions, prompting tit-for-tat sanctions and visa bans. The rare earth standoff had threatened U.S. missile and submarine production as China ramped up its military capabilities. With weapons stockpiles drained by support for Ukraine and Israel, U.S. officials see the deal as crucial to restoring supply chains and countering China's rapid defence expansion.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇷🇺 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 WHY A ‘SPHERES-OF-INFLUENCE’ WORLD RISKS GLOBAL INSTABILITY

Under President Trump, U.S. foreign policy has shown signs of abandoning the post–Cold War liberal order in favour of a revival of spheres of influence. This approach was most visible in Trump’s confrontational Oval Office meeting with Zelensky, Secretary of State Rubio’s declaration that Ukraine “is not our war,” and overtures to Russia and China over territorial and trade arrangements. Trump’s rhetoric in Riyadh distancing U.S. policy from moral leadership also hints at this strategic pivot: one focused less on universal norms and more on transactional great-power boundaries.

A Dangerous Allure

The appeal of such an order is not new. Proponents argue that clearly delineated zones of influence among powers—Washington in the Americas and Europe, Beijing in Asia, and Moscow in its “near abroad”—could reduce global conflict by respecting each other’s spheres. With nuclear threats looming and arms control fraying, some see this as a stabilising compromise.

But Partitioning the World No Longer Works

Yet this logic falters in today’s multipolar and globalised landscape. The U.S. seeks far more than a hemisphere: from Africa to Southeast Asia, its ambitions clash with Chinese and even Russian interests. Moreover, the global south is no longer passive. From ASEAN to BRICS, emerging powers like Brazil, India, and South Africa are asserting agency, hedging between rivals rather than accepting externally imposed hierarchies.

A Return to Rivalries

This rising resistance, paired with the fragmentation of global supply chains and shifting trade patterns, makes a spheres-of-influence world unsustainable. As in the 19th century, such an order might defer war—but it cannot prevent it, as the First World War revealed. Once rising states demand greater influence, the artificial calm may collapse into violent realignment. Rather than fostering peace, a return to partition may set the stage for the next global crisis.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 Majority of Australians expect China to be world’s top power by 2035, trust in U.S. hits record low: A new Lowy Institute poll finds 52% of Australians believe China will be the world’s most powerful nation by 2035, while only 36% trust the U.S. to act responsibly—a 20-point drop from 2024 and the lowest since 2005. Confidence in President Trump is at 25%, compared with 46% for Biden last year. Australians are now evenly split on whether Trump or Xi is more reliable, while views of China as an economic partner now match those seeing it as a security threat. Support for the U.S. alliance remains strong (63%), as does backing for the AUKUS submarine deal (two-thirds), despite declining trust.

2️⃣ 🇪🇨 Noboa doubles down on hardline security pitch amid Ecuador’s gang violence crisis: Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa has once again placed crime-fighting at the centre of his political platform, seeking a full term after his 2023 snap-election win. Riding a wave of public anger following the assassination of rival Fernando Villavicencio, Noboa positioned himself as a bold new leader unafraid to confront the country’s gang epidemic. His 18-month tenure has seen mixed results: a dramatic January 2024 crackdown briefly reduced homicides, but violence resurged later in the year as criminal groups adapted. Noboa’s 2025 campaign reaffirmed his tough stance—promising new prisons and foreign military support—while rival Luisa Gonzalez struggled to offer a compelling alternative. As Ecuador’s security crisis deepens, Noboa’s approach remains both controversial and, for many voters, compelling.

3️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia’s drone-delivered landmines threaten civilians and undermine global norms, writes HRW: Russia’s use of quadcopter drones to scatter antipersonnel mines over Ukraine—especially in Kherson—has inflicted civilian casualties, obstructed demining efforts, and sparked fears of legal backsliding. Human Rights Watch verified footage of butterfly mines dropped from drones, which remain active until stepped on. Some residents now avoid seeking official help and attempt to destroy mines themselves. As Russian tactics erode battlefield boundaries, neighboring countries like Finland and Poland are considering withdrawal from the Mine Ban Treaty, citing new security concerns. China-based drone makers have condemned such use of their products, while the UN and Red Cross warn of rising humanitarian risks. The normalisation of banned weapons—under the guise of military necessity—risks undoing decades of disarmament progress and unleashing a new era of indiscriminate warfare.