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📰 Iran retaliates

📰 Iran retaliates

and Trump declares 'ceasefire'

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 24, 2025

Hello,

Iran strikes back at U.S. base in Qatar before Trump announces ceasefire. In Europe, Carney signs a defence pact with the EU, while Starmer and Zelenskyy agree to jointly produce long-range drones. In West Africa, ECOWAS appoints a new chair amid mounting regional instability.

Our lead story examines how U.S. justification for Iran strikes erodes international legal norms.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇶🇦 🇺🇸 Iran launches missile strike on US base in Qatar in response to Trump’s bombing of nuclear sites: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) confirmed it launched a barrage of short- and medium-range missiles at the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, in retaliation for Donald Trump’s recent strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Qatar reported 19 missiles were fired, with one hitting the base but causing no casualties. The US and Qatari militaries said the attack was intercepted with no significant damage. Iran’s leadership framed the strike as a calibrated warning, not an escalation, while affirming friendly ties with Doha. Trump downplayed the attack as “weak” and thanked Iran for advance notice. Regional analyst Amal Saad observed that while symbolic, the strike is a stark reminder that the U.S. and its regional interests will never be normalised as an organic part of the Middle East, but rather are neo-colonial outposts that lack any popular legitimacy and function as latent vulnerabilities at critical moments.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 President Trump claims ceasefire between Iran and Israel, Israel signals continued strikes: US President Donald Trump claimed to have brokered a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel set to begin at midnight Washington time, formally ending what he referred to as a ‘12-day war’. According to Trump, the phased ceasefire will begin with Iran halting hostilities, followed by Israel 12 hours later, culminating in a full cessation after 24 hours. Trump celebrated the deal as a victory for diplomacy, praising both countries’ “stamina and intelligence” in avoiding a prolonged regional war. Despite the announcement, Israel issued evacuation warnings for Tehran’s District 7, signalling potential final strikes before the truce.

3️⃣ 🇹🇭 🇰🇭 Prime Minister Paetongtarn faces cabinet reshuffle and legal battle amid Thai-Cambodia border crisis: Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is scrambling to stabilise her government after the conservative Bhumjaithai party quit her coalition, triggered by a leaked phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen. The fallout sparked calls for her resignation, military tension along the Cambodia border, and a looming Constitutional Court case that could bar her from office. Despite the turmoil, her Pheu Thai party has retained a slim parliamentary majority, and remaining coalition partners have pledged support. A cabinet reshuffle is expected by Friday, likely affecting defence posts amid the ongoing border row, which led to new travel restrictions and evacuations. Meanwhile, Paetongtarn also faces a lese-majesté trial targeting her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, intensifying the political pressure on a dynasty long at odds with Thailand’s conservative establishment.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇪🇬 Hemidti wants 'reconciliation' with Egypt, gives first speech to RSF militants since the outbreak of war: In his first major public speech since the war began, Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemidti) addressed thousands of fighters in South Darfur, calling for reconciliation with Egypt and accusing Sudan’s army leadership of fabricating tensions. He warned that continued military support for the Sudanese army from Egypt and South Sudan could force RSF retaliation, including a reassessment of oil transit agreements. Signalling confidence, Hemidti mocked rumours of his death, promised humanitarian aid in RSF-held areas, and extended an olive branch to Darfuri rebel leaders. He vowed to continue military operations, dismissing the army’s capacity and criticising its use of foreign fighters. Against the context of the UAE-backed RSF's wanton destruction of Darfur and numerous war crimes committed, Hemidti's speech appears an optics-driven appeal, attempting to manufacture some political legitimacy. There is no precedent for the RSF offering amnesty to any Darfuri resistance fighters.

5️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Starmer, Zelenskyy agree to co-produce long-range drones: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a new defence collaboration in London to jointly produce long-range drones, aiming to bolster Ukraine’s capacity to strike strategic Russian targets. The move follows Russia’s latest mass aerial assault on Kyiv, which killed at least 14 and involved hundreds of Iranian and North Korean drones and missiles. Zelenskyy, who met UK troops and King Charles, described Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang as a “coalition of murderers.” He stressed the urgency of diplomatic and military support to stop what he called Russian “terror.” The meeting also addressed stalled U.S. military aid under the Trump administration, ahead of a critical NATO summit in The Hague.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 MEMORIES OF IRAQ: U.S. JUSTIFICATION FOR IRAN STRIKES UNDERMINE INTERNATIONAL LEGAL NORMS

Following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, President Trump declared the operation was aimed at halting “the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror.” Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth framed the attacks as a legitimate act of self-defence. Yet under international law, such justification is weak. Article 51 of the UN Charter permits self-defence only in response to an armed attack. No recent Iranian assault on the US meets this threshold, and there was no Security Council authorisation.

Preemptive self-defence: legally dubious

The US has historically embraced an expansive view of self-defence, including anticipatory and preemptive strikes, just as it did during the 2003 Iraq invasion. But such doctrines remain controversial and lack endorsement by the UN Security Council or International Court of Justice. Preemptive self-defence hinges on an imminent threat—yet the IAEA confirmed Iran does not possess nuclear weapons, nor has it shown credible intent to use them.

Collective defence and coordination with Israel

Israel began its campaign on June 13, invoking a similar rationale. If its self-defence claim were valid, the US could legally assist under collective self-defence provisions. But without clear evidence of an imminent Iranian attack, the legal foundation remains flawed. Regional analysts argue that Iran’s security architecture is primarily geared toward regime preservation, rather than offensive aims to “destroy” Israel, as often portrayed in Western media narratives. The credibility of collective self-defence collapses if the initial claim of threat is unfounded.

Dangerous precedent

The broader concern is the erosion of international norms. If major powers redefine self-defence to include loosely defined or hypothetical threats, other states may follow suit. This could legitimise unlawful aggression and increase global instability. Japan, for instance, has debated nuclear deterrence in response to China’s rise—what precedent do these strikes now set for Tokyo, Beijing, or Pyongyang?

Conclusion

The US-led strikes on Iran appear to fall short of international legal standards for self-defence. Their justification lacks factual urgency and risks normalising preemptive military action—further straining an already fragile rules-based order.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇸🇱 🇲🇱 🇳🇪 🇧🇫 ECOWAS elects new chairman: Sierra Leone’s President Julius Maada Bio has been appointed the new chair of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), as the bloc confronts a series of looming crises. ECOWAS member states face unprecedented levels of jihadist violence in the western Sahel region, which is now the world’s epicentre of violent sunni extremism. In his acceptance speech, Bio pledged to champion democracy, regional security, and institutional reform, acknowledging the persistent threats of terrorism, political instability, arms trafficking, and organised crime across the region. Bio, now in his second presidential term, led Sierra Leone during ECOWAS’s 2023 sanctions on Niger, a move that contributed to the country’s exit from the bloc. Niger, along with Mali and Burkina Faso, has since formed the rival Alliance of Sahel States, aligning with Russia and expelling Western troops.

2️⃣ 🇨🇦 🇪🇺 Carney signs EU-Canada defence pact amid Trump pressure: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has signed a landmark defence and security pact with the European Union, deepening transatlantic ties amid global instability and uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments under President Donald Trump. At the Brussels summit, Carney joined EU leaders Ursula von der Leyen and António Costa to formalise the partnership, which includes joint work on AI, climate change, cyber defence, and support for Ukraine. Carney described Canada as “the most European of non-European countries,” reaffirming his government’s ambition to diversify alliances beyond the U.S. The deal may grant Canada access to the EU’s €150bn SAFE defence fund and joint procurement mechanisms. This marks the EU’s first such agreement with an American continent country, as Canada seeks to bolster capabilities and reinforce multilateral defence frameworks.

3️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇰🇪 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel–Iran conflict threatens energy security and inflation across Africa: Experts warn of surging energy prices, market instability, and renewed inflation across already fragile economies on the African continent. Mustafa Ali, an international relations analyst, notes that African nations dependent on fossil fuels will be hit hardest by rising oil and petroleum costs. Goldman Sachs forecasts a $10 spike in crude prices, and any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of global oil passes—could push prices even higher. Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, faces the risk of fuel shortages and inflationary shocks. Economic analyst Cavince Adhere stresses the importance of proactive engagement, urging governments to assess potential domestic impacts and communicate clearly with their populations about the conflict’s likely ripple effects.