Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Iran strikes Israel

📰 Iran strikes Israel

and Trudeau narrowly holds power

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 02, 2024

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Hello and welcome back,

Today's coverage highlights the escalating crisis in the Middle East, where the threat of a full-scale regional war looms large. Iran has launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel, while Hizbollah claims to have repelled an Israeli ground offensive in southern Lebanon.

In the Americas, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has survived a second parliamentary confidence vote, and in Argentina, poverty has soared amid Javier Milei's austerity measures, with the vice-president criticising a recent Falklands agreement.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran attacks Israel: Iran has launched nearly 200 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the deaths of Hamas, Hizbollah, and an Iranian commander, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu condemned the strike, warning that Iran had made a "big mistake" and would face consequences. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned the U.S. not to interfere, conveying the message via the Swiss embassy, stating that the IRGC and its allies would target U.S. interests in the region should they become unilaterally involved. President Biden expressed full support for Israel and said discussions were underway regarding a response. Iran's Foreign Ministry emphasised that the missile strikes were an act of legitimate defence under the UN charter, with Tehran warning that its reach could extend wherever necessary.

2️⃣ 🇳🇨 🇫🇷 New Caledonia elections to be postponed: France's new prime minister, Michel Barnier, announced the postponement of New Caledonia’s provincial election—originally set for December—to late 2025. In his inaugural address to parliament, Barnier also said a contentious bill proposed by President Macron, which sought to amend the constitution and alter voting lists in the territory, will not advance. The Kanak people—the Indigenous population—oppose the changes, fearing they would benefit recent settlers. Within the province, tensions between pro-Paris communities and pro-independence Kanaks have long been high. The bill's adoption in May triggered violent protests, leading Macron to declare a state of emergency and send police and military reinforcements to the Pacific territory, located 17,000 km from France.

3️⃣ 🇨🇦 Trudeau survives second Canadian parliamentary confidence vote: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau survived a second confidence vote in parliament within a week, with opposition parties choosing to keep his minority Liberal government in place for now. The House of Commons voted 207-121, defeating the Conservative Party's motion to topple Trudeau, who faces rising voter discontent after nearly nine years in office. The Conservatives, leading in the polls, accuse Trudeau of overseeing high prices, rising crime, and an unaffordable carbon tax. Despite their efforts, triggering an election requires full opposition support, but the Bloc Québécois has agreed to back Trudeau until the end of the month in exchange for pension increases. Even if the Bloc withdraws support, Trudeau could still rely on the left-leaning NDP to stay in power.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Over 30 Palestinians killed in South Gaza barrage: Israeli strikes in southern Gaza killed at least 32 people—primarily women and children—during overnight ground operations in Khan Younis, Palestinian medical officials reported. Despite attention shifting to Lebanon, Israel continues to target purported militant sites in Gaza nearly a year after Hamas’ October 7 attack sparked the ongoing conflict. Khan Younis’ European Hospital confirmed receiving the bodies, with seven women and 12 children, including a 22-month-old, among the dead. An additional 19 people, including two children, were killed in separate strikes in central Gaza. Residents reported intense airstrikes and ground incursions, with first responders struggling to reach destroyed homes. Israel’s military did not immediately comment on the operation.

5️⃣ 🇦🇷 Poverty in Argentina skyrockets amidst Milei’s austerity measures, vice-president chastises Falklands pact: Argentina’s poverty rate has surged to nearly 53% during the first six months of Javier Milei’s presidency, as his austerity measures take a toll. The government’s statistics agency reported the figure on Thursday, marking the highest rate in two decades and adding 3.4 million more Argentinians to the ranks of the poor. Since taking office in December, Milei, a far-right libertarian, has cut public spending to curb inflation, freezing pensions, reducing welfare, and halting public works. In separate news, Argentina’s vice-president criticised a new UK-Argentina Falkland Islands agreement, calling it "crumbs" despite promises of improved bilateral relations.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇾🇪 🇮🇱 HEZBOLLAH CLAIMS TO HAVE REPELLED ISRAELI GROUND ONSLAUGHT IN SOUTH LEBANON

Background

Hizbollah has announced that it clashed with Israeli forces attempting to infiltrate the Lebanese village of Odaisseh. In a separate statement, the group claimed it had also targeted Israeli troops at three locations along the border using rockets and artillery. Israeli Telegram channels reported military helicopters were seen airlifting wounded soldiers from the northern border to hospitals in Haifa.

This marks the beginning of Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, with speculation that their aim is to reoccupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River—an area they controlled from 1982 to 2000. Israel’s previous occupation ended after a protracted armed conflict with Hezbollah, which ultimately forced Israeli forces to retreat.

The Regional Theatre

Yemen's Houthi movement launched three "Quds 5" winged missiles deep into Israeli territory, according to their military spokesperson, Yahya Saree. Israel has not confirmed any missile strikes from Yemen. Since the onset of the Gaza conflict on October 7, the Iranian-backed Houthis have regularly targeted Israel with missiles and drones, claiming solidarity with Palestinians.

Saree warned that the continuous support Israel receives from the U.S. and U.K. places their interests at risk. He added that the Houthis will escalate military operations against Israel and its backers unless the hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon cease.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 Hizbollah’s succession dilemma: The death of Hizbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has left a significant void in the organisation, which has already seen much of its leadership targeted in Israeli assassinations. Nasrallah, killed in a major Israeli airstrike on southern Beirut, was not only a symbol of Hizbollah but also its driving force since becoming its leader in 1992. Replacing him poses a challenge, particularly as Hizbollah faces ongoing Israeli assaults and the potential of a ground invasion in southern Lebanon. Hashem Safieddine—a cousin of Nasrallah—leads Hizbollah’s executive council, managing the group’s daily operations and finances. Known for his close ties to Iran, he is viewed as a significant figure within the organisation and is often seen as Tehran’s preferred choice for successor. Naim Qassem—Hizbollah’s deputy secretary-general—was born in Kfar Kila, a region deeply impacted by Israeli attacks. With roots in Shia activism since the 1970s, he helped establish Hizbollah in the early 1980s and has been instrumental in shaping its ideological strategies.