Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Iraq boosts Assad

📰 Iraq boosts Assad

and China challenges US

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
December 06, 2024

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Hello and welcome back.

In the past 24 hours, China has been at the forefront of geopolitical news: Malaysia has urged China to stop using it as a base to circumvent U.S. tariffs, while Saudi Arabia finds itself at a pivotal point in the ongoing China-U.S. rivalry in the Middle East.

Additionally, Beijing has accused Philippine ships of gathering at a disputed reef. Meanwhile, Syria makes headlines again, with an Israeli strike in Damascus killing a Hizbollah official, and Iraqi Shia militias entering Syria to support Assad.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇫🇷 French government collapses after no-confidence vote: France faces a deep political crisis after Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government fell to a no-confidence vote, marking the shortest tenure of any administration in the Fifth Republic's history. The motion, led by a left-wing alliance and backed by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, garnered a decisive 331 votes. Barnier, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September, resigned after failing to pass a contentious 2025 budget aimed at reducing France’s deficit with €60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts. Macron, ruling out his own resignation, now confronts a fractured parliament, budgetary gridlock, and limited options, as new elections cannot be held until mid-2025. The political deadlock highlights France's growing challenges in navigating economic pressures amid escalating political polarization.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇬🇧 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 UK, Canada, Australia back UN resolution demanding end to West Bank occupation: The UK, Canada, and Australia have diverged from the U.S., joining 156 other countries at the United Nations to call for the end of Israel's "unlawful presence" in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. This vote marks Australia’s return to this stance for the first time in over 20 years. Eight countries—including the US and Israel—voted against it, and seven abstained. Australia's UN ambassador, James Larsen, stated that the country’s support for the resolution reflected a desire for international momentum toward a two-state solution, which he emphasized as the only hope for lasting peace and security in the region. The resolution also demands Israel adhere to international law and halt any territorial or demographic changes in Gaza.

3️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Saudi Arabia at the centre of China–U.S. Middle Eastern rivalry: Even if outgoing President Joe Biden could have secured Senate approval, Saudi Arabia would likely reject any arrangement that forces it to choose sides in the US-China power rivalry, according to Amwaj Media. Saudi Arabia is unlikely to commit fully to one side, primarily because it will only normalise relations with Israel if a resolution to the Gaza conflict is reached and Israel commits to a two-state solution. A ceasefire is just the beginning, and Israel’s stance on a two-state solution remains uncertain, especially considering the deadlock under Trump’s policies. While China lacks the capacity or desire to defend Saudi Arabia, its advocacy for a multipolar world and the principle that the Middle East should be shaped by its own people has garnered significant support in the region.

4️⃣ 🇲🇾 🇨🇳 Malaysia asks China to stop using it to avoid U.S. tariffs: Malaysia has urged Chinese companies not to use the country as a base to “rebadge” products and avoid US tariffs, Deputy Trade Minister Liew Chin Tong said. Sources have indicated that the US plans to tighten restrictions on exports to Chinese semiconductor makers, which could include products made in Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan. Malaysia plays a key role in the semiconductor industry, handling 13% of global testing and packaging. Liew emphasised that businesses from China should not invest in Malaysia solely for circumventing US tariffs.

5️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 🇸🇾 Iraqi Shia militias enter Syria to assist Assad: Hundreds of fighters from Iran-backed Iraqi militias crossed into Syria overnight to assist the government in battling armed opposition forces that seized Aleppo last week. At least 300 fighters from the Badr and Nujabaa coalitions used a dirt road to avoid airstrikes as they entered Syria. Iranian-backed militia groups have been crucial in helping the Syrian government suppress opposition since the 2011 uprising. In response to the rebellion, Iran pledged to support the Damascus government, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasizing that Syria’s military can handle the opposition, but resistance groups—backed by the IRGC—will offer additional help. The escalation in northern Syria, coupled with ongoing regional tensions, risks further destabilising the already volatile Middle East.

Major Story

🇵🇸 🇮🇱 POSTWAR POLITICAL SETTLEMENT FOR GAZA: HAMAS AND FATAH REPORTEDLY CLOSE TO AN AGREEMENT

Background

Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas are nearing an agreement to establish a committee of independent technocrats to manage the Gaza Strip post-war, which would effectively end Hamas' control and potentially support ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Following weeks of discussions in Cairo, a preliminary deal has reportedly been reached, with the committee expected to include 12-15 members, mainly from Gaza. The committee would report to the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank and collaborate with both local and international partners to aid in humanitarian efforts and reconstruction.

However, the details are still being finalised, with Hamas and Fatah yet to agree on specific members. Israel has rejected any future role for either Hamas or Fatah in Gaza, insisting on continued security control over the region, aspiring to obstruct the development of an independent PA governing body in both the West Bank and Gaza.

Challenges to Palestinian Reconciliation

Although this potential deal aligns with some of Israel’s war objectives by diminishing Hamas' influence in Gaza, internal Palestinian opposition remains strong. Some members of Fatah, like Jibril Rajoub, argue that the agreement could deepen the division between Gaza and the West Bank, potentially solidifying a two-administration system. Previous attempts at reconciliation have failed, often due to power struggles between the two factions. As the negotiations continue, the success of this agreement hinges on overcoming these deep-rooted political challenges.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇵🇭 Beijing accuses Philippine ships of assembling at disputed reef: China and the Philippines exchanged accusations over recent incidents near the contested Houteng Reef in the South China Sea, intensifying ongoing tensions. China’s Coast Guard accused Philippine vessels, disguised as fishing boats, of illegally gathering in the area, part of the Spratly Islands claimed by both nations. In response, China stated it had exercised “necessary control measures,” asserting its “indisputable sovereignty” over the waters. The South China Sea dispute has seen rising confrontations, including vessel collisions and injuries, despite a 2016 tribunal ruling rejecting China’s expansive claims—a decision Beijing has refused to acknowledge.

2️⃣🇸🇾 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Hizbollah liaison to Syria killed by Israeli strike in Damascus: Israel announced on Tuesday that it had killed Salman Nimer Juma’a, a Hizbollah envoy to the Syrian regime, in an airstrike on Damascus. According to Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee, Juma’a played a crucial role in coordinating arms transfers through Syria on Hizbollah’s behalf. Neither Hizbollah nor the Syrian government has commented on the allegation. This development follows a recent ceasefire—which the IDF have violated—between Lebanon and Israel, which ended over 14 months of conflict that left nearly 4,000 dead and more than 16,500 injured in Lebanon, according to Lebanese health authorities.