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The UAE deploys Israeli-made military equipment to Bosaso, Somalia, in support of the RSF’s campaign in Sudan; Lebanon holds its first municipal elections in a decade amid promises of reform; and Tunisia faces escalating repression as public anger intensifies. Meanwhile, Israeli officials approve plans for the full reoccupation of Gaza.

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Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israel approves plan to seize all of Gaza and hold it indefinitely, officials say: Israeli government officials have confirmed plans to fully occupy the Gaza Strip, with Culture Minister Miki Zohar stating the offensive is intended to force Hamas into releasing captives and fleeing the enclave. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared there would be no withdrawal from captured areas and vowed to control humanitarian aid, relocating Gaza’s population southward under Israeli oversight. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir insisted aid should only support voluntary migration, echoing U.S. President Donald Trump’s past call to ethnically cleanse Gaza and turn it into a tourist site. With over 52,500 Palestinians killed since October 2023, and war crimes charges filed against Israeli leaders, human rights groups warn of a campaign marked by starvation, forced displacement, and alleged genocide.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israeli strike on Beirut raises fears of renewed Lebanon conflict: Last week, Israel conducted an airstrike on Beirut, targeting what it alleged was a Hizbollah missile storage facility. The Israeli Defence Force framed the attack as a response to violations of the November ceasefire, which obliges Lebanon to dismantle all non-state military assets. President Joseph Aoun condemned the strike and called on France and the U.S.—the truce’s guarantors—to restrain further Israeli escalation. While Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon have continued, this marks only the third strike on the capital since March, raising concerns that such operations may become normalized. Analysts suggest Israel may be attempting to force Lebanese disarmament of Hizbollah or to weaken Iranian leverage—if not both. With diplomatic channels stalling, Hizbollah could soon reassert its armed resistance narrative.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 India's unilateral actions threaten Pakistan's water security: India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and acceleration of upstream dam projects threatens Pakistan’s water-dependent agriculture and economic stability. By diverting rivers allocated to Pakistan, India violates treaty provisions and weaponises water, undermining regional peace and exposing 220 million Pakistanis to food insecurity, write regional analysts. Pakistan’s government has responded by prioritizing water security, resolving domestic disputes, and seeking redress through international legal mechanisms. Yet, global silence—particularly from the World Bank and key powers—risks normalising hydrological coercion and eroding the credibility of transboundary water governance.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇬🇱 🇨🇦 Trump refuses to rule out military force against Greenland, open to talks on Canada merger: Donald Trump said he would not rule out using military force to secure control over Greenland, citing its strategic and mineral value for U.S. security. In a televised interview, he stated the U.S. "needs Greenland very badly" and suggested the territory’s small population would be “cherished” under U.S. control. Asked about Canada, Trump said annexation was "highly unlikely" but expressed willingness to discuss it during upcoming talks with new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump claimed the U.S. subsidises Canada by $200 billion annually and dismissed its exports as unnecessary.

5️⃣ 🇨🇴 Cabinet fiasco derails Colombian president Petro’s reform agenda: Colombia’s Senate President Efraín Cepeda condemned President Gustavo Petro’s labor referendum as an “unprecedented attack” on state institutions, likening Petro’s recall threats and militaristic symbolism to past efforts by armed groups to undermine Congress. Opposition figures echoed Cepeda’s criticism, with Radical Change Senator Carlos Abraham Jiménez accusing Petro of authoritarianism and deception. Despite the backlash, a recent poll shows 57% of Colombians support the proposed reforms, especially measures to protect informal workers, though Petro’s approval remains split. With the Senate vote looming and Petro short of a majority, the outcome may hinge on a group of undecided senators, as political tensions intensify ahead of Colombia’s 2026 elections.

Major Story

🇹🇷 IMAMOGLU’S ARREST RESHAPES TURKISH OPPOSITION POLITICS

The arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on 21 March—just two days before Turkey’s main opposition party was to nominate its presidential candidate—has triggered a political reckoning. Imamoglu, the sole candidate in the Republican People’s Party (CHP) primary, was widely seen as the opposition’s strongest contender for the 2028 election. Many view the charges as politically motivated, aimed at neutralising a popular rival to President Erdogan. Widespread protests have since rocked the country, giving the opposition renewed energy, though sustaining momentum over the next three years remains a challenge.

Leadership Crossroads and Party Strategy

The CHP now faces three critical questions: Who will lead the presidential ticket? How can the party broaden its appeal? And how can it focus debate on governance rather than identity? While Imamoglu remains the official candidate, his arrest and disqualification through the revocation of his university degree—a constitutional requirement to run for president—may render his candidacy void. CHP chairman Özgür Özel, who has risen in prominence since the arrest, is a likely replacement. Another possibility is Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas, though he lacks a clear political base within the party.

Reaching Beyond the CHP Base

To win in 2028, the CHP must expand beyond its secular urban core, writes Chatham House. Imamoglu and Yavas, who hail from outside the party’s traditional elite, had successfully drawn support from conservatives and nationalists, and built electoral alliances with Kurdish voters. Imamoglu’s arrest complicates this coalition-building. The pro-Kurdish DEM party expects the CHP to reciprocate its support with concrete commitments to a revived Kurdish peace process. A failure to do so could fracture the opposition bloc.

Avoiding Identity Politics

A key test for the opposition will be avoiding polarising identity debates and focusing instead on policy and governance. Former chairman Kılıçdaroğlu’s inclusive approach helped shift public discourse from secular–conservative divides to issues of performance. The CHP must preserve this framing to maintain broad-based support. Imamoglu’s arrest has given the party symbolic momentum, but long-term success will hinge on unity, outreach, and policy credibility.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇳 Tunisia's political repression deepens as popular anger mounts: In April, Tunisia was rocked by protests after three students were killed in a school wall collapse in Mezzouna, reigniting anger over state neglect. Security forces responded with tear gas, media blackouts, and violence, while President Kais Saied deflected blame and ordered the arrest of the school principal. Rather than offering accountability or reform, Saied has doubled down on repression—handing down sham sentences of up to 66 years to over 40 opposition figures for vague charges of conspiracy. With the country facing surging inflation, food shortages, and mass emigration, Tunisia’s one-man rule is accelerating the collapse of its institutions and testing the patience of a once-hopeful public.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 Lebanon holds first municipal elections in ten years amid reform pledges: Lebanon held the first phase of delayed municipal elections over the weekend, beginning in Mount Lebanon governorate, the first vote since the Israel-Hizbollah war and the formation of a new government. More than 9,300 candidates are contesting seats across 333 municipalities in the six-district region, including southern Beirut suburbs devastated by Israeli strikes. President Joseph Aoun called the vote a vital step toward restoring institutional credibility, following years of political paralysis and economic collapse. While Hizbollah remains weakened and Israeli forces still occupy key border areas, the new government has pledged reforms and a state monopoly on arms as it seeks international support.

3️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇸🇴 🇸🇩 UAE deploys Israeli military materiel to Bosaso, Somalia, to back RSF’s Sudan war effort: The UAE has installed an advanced Israeli-made ELM-2084 radar system near Bosaso Airport in Somalia’s Puntland region, aiming to defend its infrastructure from potential Yemeni drone or missile attacks. Satellite imagery from March 2025 confirms the radar's deployment, part of Abu Dhabi’s broader effort to protect strategic assets in East Africa. Built by ELTA Systems, the radar can detect and track a wide range of aerial threats at distances of up to 470 kilometres, even under electronic warfare conditions. Its use underscores growing UAE-Israel defence cooperation since formal diplomatic ties were established in 2020 through the U.S.-brokered Abraham Accords.

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