Geopolitics Daily
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📰 Israel-Hamas ceasefire reached

📰 Israel-Hamas ceasefire reached

and Vietnam’s nuclear deal

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 16, 2025

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Good morning from London,

In the Caribbean, the United States has removed Cuba from its list of 'state sponsors of terrorism,' marking a significant diplomatic shift, while the United Nations reports that over 1 million people have been displaced in Haiti.

The primary focus today, however, is the ceasefire announced for Gaza, which offers respite to civilians after 460 days of devastation. Despite this development, Israel escalates its military operations with airstrikes on the Jenin refugee camp in the Occupied West Bank.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇵🇬 🇳🇷 🇸🇧 Australia expands its strategic presence in the Pacific: Australia's recent security agreements with Pacific Island nations underscore its determination to remain a key player in a region of growing geopolitical competition. Partnerships with Papua New Guinea (PNG), Nauru, and the Solomon Islands focus on addressing shared challenges, enhancing maritime security, and countering Chinese influence through strategic investments and capacity-building initiatives. These agreements are part of Australia's broader Integrated Security and Development Framework, which includes programs like the Pacific Maritime Security Program and the Defence Cooperation Program, aimed at strengthening regional policing, military interoperability, and governance. By integrating climate action and long-term development into its strategy, Australia seeks to position itself as the preferred partner for Pacific nations, balancing regional stability with strategic interests.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Fierce fighting in eastern DR Congo sees towns retaken by government forces: Government forces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have recaptured several towns in the east previously held by armed groups, according to the Congolese army. Key recoveries include Ngungu, a strategic town in Masisi territory near Goma, and other locations in South Kivu province. Army spokesman Guillaume Ndjike Kaiko credited the victories to coordinated military operations, stating rebels were "pushed back" from areas such as Lumbishi, Ruzirantaka, Kamatale, Bitagata, and Kabingo. Despite these gains, intense fighting continues, with some Masisi villages, including its central hub, remaining under rebel control.

3️⃣ 🇵🇱 🇷🇺 Polish prime minister accuses Russia of planning major terrorist campaign: During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Tusk stated, “Russia planned acts of air terror not just against Poland but against airlines worldwide.” Recent reports from The New York Times reveal that U.S. intelligence warned the White House of Russia’s plan to smuggle incendiary devices onto cargo planes bound for the U.S., prompting a warning to the Kremlin. Moscow has also faced accusations of sabotaging European transport systems and jamming GPS signals as part of its hybrid warfare campaign. In April 2024, Czech officials alleged thousands of Russian attempts to disrupt European railways. Most recently, Russia was accused of downing an Azerbaijani passenger jet, killing 38—a grim echo of the MH17 tragedy in 2014, for which Moscow has consistently denied responsibility.

4️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Over 1 million people displaced in Haiti, says UN: Escalating gang violence in Haiti has led to a threefold increase in displacement within a year, the UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) reported, urging immediate humanitarian aid to save lives. IOM data shows over one million people displaced as of January 2024, compared to 315,000 in December 2023, with many experiencing repeated displacement. Most have fled Port-au-Prince, where gang activity has devastated healthcare and worsened food insecurity. The violence has also spread to provinces like Artibonite, where displacement tripled in 2024, reaching over 84,000, straining host communities and resources.

5️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Israel carries out airstrikes on Jenin refugee camp, Occupied West Bank: An Israeli airstrike on the Jenin refugee camp overnight Wednesday claimed the lives of six Palestinians, including a 15-year-old boy, while clashes injured three Israeli soldiers. Eyewitnesses reported drones bombing crowded areas in the camp, leaving residents searching for remains amid power outages. The raid marked the third attempt in a week to arrest individuals in Qabatiya. Palestinian groups condemned the ongoing siege on Jenin, which has lasted 42 days, during which 15 Palestinians have died. Israeli forces also arrested 12 people in overnight West Bank raids.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇶🇦 CEASEFIRE IN GAZA: AN OVERVIEW

Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, following 460 days of genocide in Gaza. The truce, expected to begin Sunday, marks the second such successful deal, the first coming in November 2023. It includes provisions for prisoner exchanges, troop withdrawals, and humanitarian aid, though critical details remain under negotiation.

In the first six-week phase, Israel will release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those detained after October 7, 2023, in exchange for 33 Israeli captives held by Hamas. Israeli forces will withdraw from Gaza’s population centres but maintain positions near the border. Aid deliveries will increase to 600 trucks daily, and civilians will be allowed to return to northern Gaza, where famine risks are acute.

Subsequent phases depend on ongoing negotiations. A potential second phase could involve Hamas releasing all captives in exchange for further Palestinian prisoner releases and Israel’s complete withdrawal. However, political opposition within Israel complicates the process. The third phase envisions international oversight for Gaza’s reconstruction and governance, with Arab states potentially contributing to interim security and administration.

Despite progress, unresolved issues—such as long-term governance, pathways to Palestinian statehood, and Israel’s refusal to guarantee a non-resumption of hostilities—cast uncertainty on the ceasefire's durability.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇨🇺 United States rescinds Cuba’s designation as ‘state sponsor of terrorism’: The Biden administration has informed Congress of its decision to remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, a move tied to Cuba’s “gradual” release of 553 political prisoners, facilitated through the Catholic Church. A senior official stated there is no evidence supporting Cuba’s current designation, and the prisoner release represents progress in addressing humanitarian concerns. While Cuba’s foreign ministry welcomed the decision as a step in the right direction, it criticized the ongoing U.S. economic blockade, citing its severe impact on Cuba’s recovery and population. Critics, including Senator Rick Scott, condemned the move as reckless, pledging to support efforts under incoming President Trump to reinstate the designation and hold Cuba accountable.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇻🇳 Russia, Vietnam broker nuclear energy pact: Russia and Vietnam have agreed to deepen nuclear energy cooperation during Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s visit to Hanoi. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear company, plans to assist Vietnam in building nuclear power plants and sharing civil nuclear technology. This partnership reflects broader global trends, particularly the renewed interest in nuclear energy as nations seek sustainable, non-carbon energy sources to meet climate goals. For Vietnam, nuclear power represents not only a step toward energy independence but also a means to accelerate its green transition. Meanwhile, the U.S., once a leader in nuclear energy, struggles to compete with Russia and South Korea due to waning domestic manufacturing capacity and rising energy demands from AI data centers.