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📰 Israel hits Damascus

📰 Israel hits Damascus

and Timor-Leste’s gas deal

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
October 10, 2024

Hello and welcome back.

Today's global election coverage reveals significant developments: India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), faced a major defeat in Kashmir's first election since the Indian government revoked the region's autonomy in 2019. Meanwhile, Mozambique is heading to the polls, where the ruling party Frelimo is expected to extend its half-century reign.

In the Indo-Pacific, Australia and Timor-Leste are on the verge of finalising a $74 billion maritime gas project. Meanwhile, the conflict in Lebanon is escalating, with Israel ramping up its military operations as Hizbollah pledges ongoing support for Gaza.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇦 🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia-Iran talks offer promise for Middle East de-escalation: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is set to meet his Saudi counterpart to address rising tensions amid the threat of an Israeli strike on Tehran. Talks will also focus on Hizbollah’s role in securing a ceasefire, as U.S. support for Israel's efforts to dismantle Hizbollah grows. With conflicts escalating on multiple fronts, Iran and Saudi Arabia are central players. Araghchi, after visits to Beirut and Damascus, is seen as pivotal in determining Hizbollah's next move—whether to pull back and regroup or continue its resistance. While Hizbollah remains defiant despite leadership losses, it has indicated some openness to ceasefire discussions. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia faces a delicate balancing act, striving to improve relations with Iran while expressing frustration over Hizbollah's influence in Lebanon and Israeli actions. The diplomatic talks will explore whether the Lebanese group should focus on military recovery or embrace a path of negotiation amid growing international pressure.

2️⃣ 🇮🇳 Modi’s BJP loses to Congress in Kashmir’s regional elections: India’s ruling party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), suffered a significant defeat in Kashmir's first election since the Indian government stripped the region of its autonomy in 2019. The opposition Congress party, in alliance with the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC), secured a resounding victory, winning 48 seats to the BJP’s 29. This election, the first in a decade for the region, was highly anticipated due to its significance following the Modi government's controversial decision to revoke Article 370, which had granted Kashmir special autonomous status. The move was seen as a core promise of the BJP's Hindu nationalist agenda but faced widespread backlash in Kashmir, where it was perceived as an assault on the region's identity. Kashmir, a longstanding conflict zone between India and Pakistan, remains fraught with tension, with violent insurgencies and political struggles ongoing since the 1990s.

3️⃣ 🇲🇿 Mozambique votes, ruling party Frelimo likely to extend its half-century rule: Mozambique heads to the polls today as President Filipe Nyusi steps down after two terms. Daniel Chapo, representing the ruling Frelimo party, succeeds him. Despite Frelimo’s dominance since achieving independence from Portugal in 1975, the charismatic independent candidate Venancio Mondlane has garnered significant support, particularly among disenchanted youth. Mondlane’s rise presents a serious challenge to both Frelimo and the main opposition party, Renamo. The winner will inherit major issues, including an Islamist insurgency in the north that has halted gas projects and displaced thousands. Allegations of vote-rigging have marred previous elections, raising concerns about fairness. With protests likely if results are contested, tensions remain high. The country also faces economic challenges, exacerbated by a hidden debt scandal and IMF-imposed austerity measures, limiting the government's ability to deliver on promises.

4️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israeli airstrikes in Damascus kill at least seven civilians, says Syrian Defence Ministry: An Israeli airstrike on a residential building in Damascus' Mezzeh neighbourhood on Tuesday killed seven civilians, including women and children, according to Syria’s Defense Ministry. The ministry reported that Israel launched the attack using three missiles from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting a densely populated area. The current death toll is preliminary as rescue teams continue searching for survivors trapped beneath the rubble.

5️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇹🇱 Australia and Timor-Leste close to signing off on $74 billion maritime gas project: The long-delayed Greater Sunrise gas project could commence by the end of the year, according to Timor-Leste President José Ramos-Horta. However, he stressed that the pipeline and processing facilities must be located in Timor-Leste, not Australia’s Darwin. Discovered in 1974, the gas field lies between Australia and Timor-Leste, with disputes over maritime boundaries only resolved in 2019. Since then, negotiations have stalled over where the gas will be processed. While Woodside Energy, the operator, prefers Darwin for economic reasons, Ramos-Horta argues that routing the pipeline to Timor-Leste would be more cost-effective due to lower taxes. Ramos-Horta urged Australia to finalise an agreement, citing interest from investors, including China. He believes Timor-Leste would reap greater benefits if the pipeline goes to his country, which is closer to the gas field. South Korea and Kuwait have also shown investment interest.

Major Story

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 HIZBOLLAH VOWS CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR GAZA, AS FOURTH ISRAELI DIVISION ENTERS LEBANON

Background

Israel has escalated its military operations in southern Lebanon by deploying a fourth division, following a series of intense airstrikes across the region. The recent deployment of the reservist 146th division, in addition to another standing division, raises the number of Israeli troops in the area to about 15,000. This action is part of Operation Northern Arrows, which Israel initially described as a series of “limited, localised, and targeted raids” aimed at dismantling HIzbollah’s infrastructure along the disputed blue line border.

The mobilisation of four divisions, along with evacuation orders for Lebanese villages up to 20 miles from the blue line, and heavy bombings in southern and eastern Lebanon, indicates Israel may be preparing for a broader offensive against HIzbollah. Despite the intensified airstrikes, HIzbollah's acting secretary-general, Naim Qassem, delivered a defiant speech asserting that the group’s military capabilities remain intact. He highlighted that Hizbollah continues to launch daily rocket attacks and drone strikes against Israeli settlements, despite suffering significant leadership losses.

Israeli Claims and Hizbollah's Response

Qassem confirmed that Hizbollah has replaced its senior commanders following the deaths of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and others in the recent Beirut airstrikes. He asserted that Israeli ground forces have made no substantial advances after a week of fighting. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had killed Hashem Safieddine, who was expected to succeed Nasrallah. This claim is yet to be verified by Lebanese sources.

In response to ongoing Israeli attacks on Lebanon and Gaza, Hizbollah's Operations Room issued a resolute statement, vowing to continue its resistance against the Israeli occupation until the war on Gaza ends. The statement emphasised the group’s preparedness and enhanced missile capabilities, warning that any further Israeli aggression would provoke intensified retaliation.

Hizbollah asserted that its military operations are now guided by a strengthened command-and-control system, making the group "stronger and more resilient" than before. The group warned that continued Israeli aggression against Lebanese civilians would result in missile strikes on major cities such as Haifa, as well as border towns like Kiryat Shmona and Metulla. The statement also highlighted the ongoing fierce battles in southern Lebanon, where Hizbollah fighters are effectively resisting Israeli attempts to advance into border villages, demonstrating that their capabilities extend beyond missiles and drones to strike deep into occupied Palestinian territory.

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1️⃣ 🇧🇷 Brazil lifts ban on Elon Musk’s ‘X’: Brazil has lifted its ban on the social media platform X, after the platform complied with orders from the country’s Supreme Court, ending a months-long dispute. Musk had previously criticised the court's directives as censorship but ultimately conceded. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes announced that X would be allowed to resume operations in Brazil within 24 hours, although it may take longer for the platform to be fully operational, according to The New York Times. The rift began in April when the Supreme Court ordered X to suspend certain Brazilian accounts as part of an investigation into “digital militias” spreading disinformation. Musk argued the demands were excessive and claimed X was pressured to suspend accounts of Brazilian journalists and parliament members, leading to broader tensions, including issues related to his satellite internet service, Starlink.