Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Israel–Lebanon truce falters

📰 Israel–Lebanon truce falters

and Austria’s coalition crumbles

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
January 07, 2025

In partnership with

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

In Latin America, Chile’s president visits the South Pole to reaffirm the country’s sovereignty claims over a portion of Antarctica, while Honduras threatens to expel U.S. military forces. In the Middle East, Hamas expresses willingness to release hostages under a proposed deal, while the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire faces collapse.

Today's main story highlights a new chapter in Ukraine's ongoing Kursk offensive.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 🇺🇳 Israel–Lebanon ceasefire on precipice after series of violations: A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hizbollah has lasted over a month, though the likelihood of meeting its conditions by the deadline remains low. The agreement, reached on November 27, required Hizbollah to disarm in southern Lebanon and Israel to withdraw within 60 days, transferring control to the Lebanese army and U.N. peacekeepers. Israel has so far pulled back from only two towns, continuing strikes on alleged Hizbollah sites to prevent weapons smuggling. Despite threats from Hizbollah to resume fighting if Israel misses the deadline, analysts believe the truce will persist, offering hope for displaced families.

2️⃣ 🇭🇳 🇺🇸 Honduras threatens to expel U.S. military presence over deportations row: Honduras has warned it may expel US troops if President-elect Donald Trump proceeds with mass deportations of Central American migrants and asylum seekers. President Xiomara Castro stated that military cooperation, particularly the US presence at Soto Cano Air Base, would be reconsidered if deportations were carried out, criticising the decades-long US military footprint in Honduras. Soto Cano, operational since the 1980s, plays a strategic role in counter-narcotics, disaster relief, and regional surveillance. Despite tensions, analysts suggest Honduras is unlikely to sever ties, given its economic reliance on remittances—27% of GDP—primarily from the US. This standoff highlights shifting dynamics in Central American geopolitics, underscoring the delicate balance between Honduras’s dependence on US economic ties and its growing frustration with American policies.

3️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇱🇾 Former French president on trial for receiving illegal funds from Gaddafi: Former French president Nicolas Sarkozy is standing trial for his involvement in the largest political financing scandal in modern French history. He is accused of accepting millions of euros in illegal campaign funds from the regime of the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. The trial, which also includes 12 other defendants, including three former government ministers, could further erode public trust in the French political establishment. The court will hear claims from a decade-long anti-corruption investigation, alleging a “corruption pact” between Sarkozy and the Libyan regime, where intermediaries delivered cash-filled suitcases to government buildings to finance his 2007 presidential campaign.

4️⃣ 🇦🇹 Austria’s ruling coalition collapses, Chancellor resigns: Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer announced his resignation after coalition talks between Austria’s major centrist parties collapsed, derailing efforts to exclude the far-right Freedom Party (FPO) from government. His decision triggered an emergency meeting of the ruling People’s Party (OVP), which appointed Christian Stocker as interim leader. Nehammer’s departure follows the liberal Neos party’s withdrawal from negotiations with the OVP and Social Democrats (SPO). In a video statement, Nehammer cited unsuccessful attempts at forming a centrist coalition, despite mutual concerns about the rising influence of the far right.

5️⃣ 🇮🇳 Maoist rebels clash with Indian security forces in Chhattisgarh state: Indian security forces clashed with Maoist rebels on Sunday in the dense forests of Chhattisgarh, central India, resulting in the deaths of four militants and one police officer. The decades-long Naxalite insurgency has claimed over 10,000 lives, with rebels asserting they fight for the rights of marginalised indigenous communities in India’s resource-rich central regions. Government forces have intensified operations, killing 287 rebels in 2024 alone. The latest confrontation erupted late Saturday in Abujmarh, a major conflict zone.

Major Story

🇺🇦 🇷🇺 UKRAINE LAUNCHES SURPRISE OPERATION DURING KURSK OFFENSIVE

On Sunday, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, aiming to regain momentum on the battlefield ahead of Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House in January 2025. The operation marks a significant escalation, with armoured columns advancing into Russian-held territory, including villages such as Bolshoe Soldatskoe. Ukrainian officials confirmed the operation, while Russian military bloggers reported intense fighting.

Strategic Context

This is Ukraine’s second major raid in Kursk since June, with the first cross-border attack marking a historic breach of Russian soil. Since then, Russian forces have made partial gains, recapturing about 40% of lost territory. However, Ukrainian forces remain entrenched in the region, continuing to push against Russian defenses despite their own challenges.

The Role of Weather and Equipment

The winter conditions played a pivotal role in the success of Ukraine’s offensive, allowing easier movement of armoured units. U.S.-supplied Bradley fighting vehicles were notably used for rapid troop deployment, underscoring continued Western support despite shifting political landscapes in the US.

Impact on Peace Talks and Territorial Control

The operation precedes potential peace talks as Trump’s return to office looms. With Kyiv controlling 585 sq km of Russian territory in Kursk, the region could be a critical piece in future negotiations. However, Russian President Putin has maintained that his territorial demands remain unchanged, indicating no immediate end to the conflict.

Promotion

Hands Down Some Of The Best 0% Interest Credit Cards

Pay no interest until nearly 2027 with some of the best hand-picked credit cards this year. They are perfect for anyone looking to pay down their debt, and not add to it!

Click here to see what all of the hype is about.

Learn How To Apply Now

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Hamas prepared to release 34 hostages under proposed deal: Mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and the United States have been negotiating ceasefire terms between Israel and Hamas, with fresh efforts underway just days before Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20. These discussions come as Israel continues its bombardment of the Gaza Strip. Since the conflict began nearly 15 months ago, only one ceasefire has been implemented—a brief, one-week pause in November 2023, which facilitated the release of 80 Israeli hostages and 240 Palestinians. Hamas has now agreed to release 34 Israeli prisoners, according to an official, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s office has stated that Hamas has yet to provide a list of hostages for potential release.

2️⃣ 🇨🇱 🇦🇶 Chilean president visits South Pole, reaffirms ‘claim to sovereignty’ over part of Antarctica: Chilean President Gabriel Boric became the first Latin American leader to visit the South Pole, marking what he described as a significant moment for the nation’s Antarctic ambitions. Speaking during his visit, Boric highlighted the importance of Chile’s mission in the region, reinforcing the country’s sovereignty claims over part of Antarctica. Accompanied by defence and environment ministers, along with senior military officials, Boric arrived at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, a US research facility, spending roughly two hours there. His visit underscores Chile’s longstanding presence in Antarctica, where several nations have maintained research stations since the 20th century, despite the Antarctic Treaty of 1961, which aims to preserve the continent from geopolitical disputes.