Hello and welcome back.

In Europe, the UK and EU have renewed ties with a slate of new agreements, marking a significant shift five years after Brexit. Meanwhile, Finland is reinforcing its border defences in anticipation of increased Russian military activity. In the Middle East, NGOs have criticised the EU’s position on Gaza as “too little, too late,” amid a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Today’s lead story examines Russia’s covert sabotage campaign across Europe.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Israel planning strike on Iran, U.S. intelligence tells CNN: Amid ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, Israeli officials are reportedly considering a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, U.S. intelligence staff have reportedly told CNN, fearing that any deal may fall short of eliminating Iran’s enrichment capabilities. While Washington and Tehran have met repeatedly since April, Israeli leaders are allegedly weighing military options. Although Trump has expressed a preference for diplomacy over military action thus far, Israel’s leadership, including Defense Minister Israel Katz, continues to signal keenness to act unilaterally. Analysts warn such a strike could derail talks and trigger wider regional conflict.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇵🇰 🇦🇫 China, Pakistan agree to expand CPEC to Afghanistan for regional ‘peace, stability, and development’ as regional tensions escalate: China has reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening ties with Pakistan and Afghanistan, calling for deeper regional cooperation and increased diplomatic engagement. At a trilateral meeting in Beijing, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged the two South Asian neighbours to restore ambassadorial relations and enhance coordination on security, trade, and development. Beijing reiterated its backing for Afghanistan’s reconstruction and Pakistan’s security, offering further cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. The talks came amid rising regional tensions, including recent violence in southwestern Pakistan and renewed friction between India and Pakistan. Beijing does not officially recognise the Taliban government, but maintains active engagement, seeking stability along its western frontier.

3️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇿🇦 Trump makes ‘white genocide’ claims in meeting with South African president Ramaphosa: U.S. President Donald Trump triggered diplomatic friction during a White House meeting by showing South African President Cyril Ramaphosa a video alleging white South Africans were victims of genocide—describing the situation as “the opposite of apartheid.” Ramaphosa firmly rejected the claims, stressing that South Africa’s constitution protects all citizens and that crime actually disproportionately affects Black communities. Trump, echoing right-wing narratives championed by Elon Musk and Tucker Carlson, insisted white farmers were being targeted, while Ramaphosa invoked Nelson Mandela’s legacy of dialogue. The exchange came amid deteriorating U.S.–South Africa relations, marked by disputes over land reform, U.S. sanctions, and divergent positions on the Israel-Gaza conflict.

4️⃣ 🇫🇮 🇷🇺 Finland prepares for Russian military uptick on its border: Finland has warned that Russia is likely to reallocate troops to its shared border once the war in Ukraine ends, citing recent infrastructure upgrades near the frontier. Maj Gen Sami Nurmi of the Finnish defence forces said that while no immediate threat exists, Helsinki is monitoring Moscow’s activities “very closely” and preparing for all contingencies as a NATO member. Satellite imagery indicates new military construction, including helicopter bases and fighter jet shelters, near Finland’s eastern border. In response, Finland has completed the first 35km of a planned 200km high-tech border fence aimed at deterring hybrid threats like the engineered migrant crossings accused of being orchestrated by Russia.

5️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli forces fire at foreign diplomats in West Bank: During a diplomatic visit to Jenin in the occupied West Bank, Israeli troops opened fire near a delegation of foreign diplomats, prompting international condemnation. The Israeli military claimed the convoy had veered into a restricted area and said troops fired “warning shots” to redirect them, expressing regret for the “inconvenience.” However, the Palestinian Authority accused Israel of deliberately targeting the group, which included representatives from over 20 nations. UN officials labelled the incident “unacceptable,” and countries such as Canada, Germany, Turkey, and the EU demanded accountability. The event intensified scrutiny of Israeli military conduct as humanitarian conditions in Gaza worsen and international calls grow for a ceasefire and aid access.

Major Story

🇷🇺 🇪🇺 RUSSIA’S COVERT CAMPAIGN IN EUROPE

MI5's director has warned that Russia is waging a covert campaign to sow chaos across Europe. A string of sabotage events—ranging from undersea cable disruptions to arson in Warsaw—suggest a shift in tactics. Rather than deploying trained operatives, Moscow is increasingly recruiting amateurs online, often teenagers or financially vulnerable individuals. These recruits are tasked with acts of vandalism, espionage, or infrastructure attacks in return for small sums, enabling deniability and wide reach.

Strategic Shifts and Growing Exposure

Gray zone tactics appeal precisely because they blur lines between war and peace. But the use of untrained operatives has exposed more of Russia’s fingerprints, as many are caught and divulge their instructions. Western states are beginning to respond: NATO’s Baltic Sentry initiative now monitors maritime sabotage, while the U.S. has warned Russia against similar attacks on American soil.

High-Impact Tactics, Limited Costs

The Baltic Sea’s shallow waters make it an ideal site for disguised undersea sabotage. Damaged cables can take months to fix and cost millions, yet perpetrators often evade responsibility by feigning accidents. On land, Russia’s proxies have targeted soft civilian infrastructure with arson and low-level intimidation.

Shrinking the Gray Zone

Incidents such as the Marywilska mall fire and intercepted explosive parcels illustrate that plausible deniability is eroding. While Russia’s strategy still offers it room to manoeuvre, Europe is slowly adapting—tightening security, enhancing monitoring, and recalibrating its diplomatic responses to covert aggression.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 🇪🇺 ‘Too little, too late’ say NGOs on EU Gaza stance: Israeli officials have dismissed mounting criticism from European allies over the war in Gaza, calling recent threats of sanctions “symbolic” and politically motivated. According to Israeli media, Tel Aviv views EU and UK statements as declarative, with little practical impact, and reportedly convinced the EU to review, rather than suspend, trade agreements. The pushback followed remarks by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, who announced a re-examination of trade ties due to Israel’s conduct in Gaza. Meanwhile, the UK suspended free trade talks and sanctioned violent settlers, prompting Israel to accuse London of acting out of political bias. Rights groups welcomed the shift but urged stronger measures, including international peacekeeping and a no-fly zone.

2️⃣ 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 UK, EU renew ties and announce new deals five years after Brexit: The UK and EU have agreed to reset ties through a series of landmark deals spanning trade, defence, and mobility. Key changes include streamlined food export procedures, reduced customs checks, and a 12-year fisheries deal. The pact also opens UK access to the EU’s €150 billion joint defence programme, offering opportunities for British firms in cybersecurity and arms manufacturing. While politically sensitive, particularly around sovereignty and fisheries, the agreements reflect a pragmatic shift amid global instability. Critics caution the reset falls short of restoring full EU market access, but it marks a meaningful move toward cooperation. Success will hinge on balancing economic benefits with domestic politics and future challenges in UK-EU relations.

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