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📰 Israel pulls back in Gaza

📰 Israel pulls back in Gaza

and Rwanda-DRC tensions rise

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
February 10, 2025

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics daily,

In Europe, Albin Kurti’s party leads in Kosovo’s election exit polls, while China has appointed hardliner Lu Shaye as its new EU ambassador. The Israel–Lebanon ceasefire remains fragile following multiple Israeli violations, and eastern DRC belligerents actors gather in Tanzania for a peace summit.

Today's main story explores the impact of Trump's USAID shutdown on U.S. foreign policy and global relations.

More below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇶🇦 Israel withdraws from Netzarim corridor, Netanyahu sends delegation to Doha for next phase: The Israeli military has withdrawn from the Netzarim Corridor to the designated buffer zone, following ceasefire terms with Hamas that require full withdrawal and the restoration of movement between northern and southern Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli and Hamas delegations are set to hold indirect talks in Qatar this week on the next phase of the ceasefire. Saudi Arabia’s foreign ministry has rejected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s suggestion of establishing a Palestinian state on Saudi land. In the occupied West Bank, Israeli forces fatally shot a pregnant 23-year-old Palestinian woman, Sundus Shalabi, in the Nur Shams refugee camp, also killing her unborn child and critically injuring her husband, according to local health authorities.

2️⃣ 🇹🇿 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 Eastern DRC peace summit convenes in Tanzania: A regional summit has urged an immediate, unconditional ceasefire in the Democratic Republic of the Congo within five days. Leaders from the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC)—including Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and the DRC’s Félix Tshisekedi—expressed deep concern over escalating violence as the Rwanda-backed M23 armed group continues its advance. The summit also called for humanitarian corridors to evacuate casualties, while the UN warns of worsening atrocities, including mass killings and sexual violence. With the DRC’s military struggling against M23’s rapid territorial gains and regional powers backing Kinshasa, fears of a broader conflict are mounting.

3️⃣ 🇲🇽 Sheinbaum unveils economic and development roadmap, ‘Plan Mexico’: President Claudia Sheinbaum’s newly unveiled economic strategy aims to stimulate growth through public and private investment, job creation, and business-friendly policies. It seeks to boost investment, generate 1.5 million jobs in advanced manufacturing, and elevate Mexico from the 13th to the 10th largest global economy by 2030. However, challenges such as economic slowdown, trade tensions with the U.S., and domestic security concerns could hinder its success. While the plan signals a shift from AMLO’s confrontational approach towards businesses, its reliance on foreign investment, regulatory uncertainties, and Mexico’s growing fiscal deficit raise doubts about achieving its ambitious targets. Despite these hurdles, the initiative underscores Mexico’s intent to strengthen its economy amid geopolitical uncertainty, though its long-term success remains uncertain.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Trump reinstates ‘Maximum pressure’ strategy on Iran, aims to drive its ‘oil exports to zero’: Iran has dismissed former U.S. President Donald Trump’s reinstatement of his "maximum pressure" campaign, arguing it will not achieve its intended goals. Despite tensions, both sides have signaled a willingness to negotiate, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian downplayed the impact of U.S. sanctions, emphasizing Iran’s economic resilience, while top officials reaffirmed that Iran has no intention of pursuing nuclear weapons. At the same time, Iran’s military leaders acknowledged Trump’s recognition of Iranian strength while warning of severe consequences for any attack on its nuclear facilities. Within Iran, debate continues over the prospect of direct talks with Washington, with reformist voices urging engagement and hardliners expressing skepticism. While Trump’s rhetoric combines threats with openness to negotiation, Iran’s leadership appears divided on whether to engage or resist further U.S. pressure.

5️⃣ 🇸🇩 SAF continues to make ground in Khartoum, al-Burhan hints at a caretaker government: A new Sudanese government is expected to be formed once the army fully regains control of Khartoum, military sources said, following army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s announcement of a technocratic wartime administration. The army is closing in on the presidential palace, while the RSF retreats amid intensified airstrikes and militia reinforcements. Burhan ruled out a Ramadan ceasefire unless the RSF halts its campaign in Darfur, particularly in al-Fasher. The revised interim constitution will strip references to civilian partnership or RSF involvement, granting the military sole authority to appoint a prime minister and cabinet. Amid one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, Burhan urged members of the civilian Taqadum coalition to denounce the RSF to be politically reinstated.

Major Story

🇺🇸 THE IMPACT OF USAID SHUTDOWN: U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND GLOBAL RELATIONS

The Trump administration’s recent move to freeze U.S. foreign assistance and appoint Secretary of State Marco Rubio as acting administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has triggered significant concerns. Despite valid critiques of USAID—ranging from accusations of undermining governance in the Global South to being a tool for expanding U.S. political influence through soft power—any shutdown or reorganization of the agency could harm both U.S. interests abroad and its mission to promote global stability, health, and economic development, unless approached in a methodical and strategic manner.

Legal Challenges and Future Uncertainty

The administration’s reported intent to abolish USAID by presidential order raises serious constitutional questions. While USAID was initially created by executive order, it has been a congressionally mandated agency since 1998. Federal statutes require consultation with Congress before any major reorganization of USAID, which makes the administration’s plans legally questionable. This challenge could lead to legal disputes and potential court interventions, especially from those directly impacted by a disruption of USAID’s operations.

While the administration has begun a review of USAID’s activities, the potential for reorganization or reduction in the agency's scope still poses risks. On February 3, Rubio announced that Peter Marocco, a loyalist, would lead a review of USAID’s future. Though some adjustments, like consolidating offices or delegating functions to the State Department may be within legal bounds, the ongoing freeze on foreign assistance undermines the agency’s effectiveness and raises doubts about its long-term viability.

Global Impact and U.S. Soft Power

By scaling back or abolishing USAID, the U.S. risks losing its position in the global soft power arena and relinquishing its role in shaping international norms. USAID’s work to prevent conflict, protect human rights, promote democratic values, and foster economic development has long served as a cornerstone of U.S. foreign policy. Moreover, these efforts counter the influence of global powers like Russia and China, who have increased their presence worldwide through economic and military initiatives.

Consequences for Global Health

The shutdown of USAID’s programs would have far-reaching consequences, particularly in Africa, where the agency has significantly contributed to economic growth. An unravelling in these efforts could result in heightened instability and expose vacuums for other global powers to exploit.

A Risk to U.S. Credibility

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding USAID’s future is not just a matter of administrative restructuring—it threatens the credibility of the U.S. as a reliable partner in international development. The potential shutdown and reorganization of the agency could undermine decades of progress, erode trust, and jeopardize U.S. national security interests. A Brookings Institute analyst writes that while reviews and reforms of foreign aid are common, any decision to drastically alter or eliminate USAID should be carefully weighed against the potential costs to U.S. influence and global stability.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇽🇰 🇷🇸 Albin Kurti’s party lead in Kosovo election exit poll: Kosovo’s parliamentary elections have closed, with Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Vetevendosje party leading at 38.2%, according to exit polls. The Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) follow with 22.4% and 20.1%, respectively, making a coalition government likely. Kurti, known for his anti-corruption stance and nationalist policies, has clashed with Western allies over his hardline approach to Serbia, particularly his ban on Serbian dinar transactions. Critics argue his confrontational style risks isolating Kosovo internationally, despite securing US arms deals. The election, viewed as a referendum on Kurti’s leadership, comes amid economic struggles, tensions with Serbia, and stalled EU-backed negotiations. While he remains popular for his integrity, opposition parties blame his rigid stance for deteriorating ties with key Western partners.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Lebanon forms new cabinet, Israel violates ceasefire: While Hizbollah has halted its attacks, Israel continues sporadic strikes, including some north of the Litani River, where Hizbollah is required to withdraw under the ceasefire agreement. Between 27 November and 10 January, ACLED recorded 330 Israeli airstrikes and shelling incidents, along with 260 property destruction events. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s new Prime Minister, Nawaf Salam, has formed the country’s first full-fledged government since 2022, pledging major reforms and implementation of the ceasefire with Israel. President Joseph Aoun, elected on 9 January after a two-year vacancy, accepted the resignation of the caretaker government and approved a new 24-member cabinet, evenly split between Christian and Muslim sects, as Lebanon works to rebuild war-torn regions and stabilise its southern border.

3️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇪🇺 China appoints Lu Shaye as new EU ambassador: China has appointed Lu Shaye, a diplomat known for his assertive rhetoric, as its special representative for European affairs, signaling a tougher stance in its dealings with the EU. Lu, a former ambassador to France, previously sparked outrage by questioning the sovereignty of former Soviet states, straining Beijing’s efforts to present itself as a neutral player in the Ukraine conflict. His appointment follows European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s call for improved China-EU ties, though divisions persist within the bloc over how to approach Beijing. While some European states push for a firmer stance, others prioritize trade, making Lu’s role pivotal in shaping the future of China-EU relations amid ongoing tensions over trade imbalances, tariffs, and China’s backing of Russia.