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📰 Israel ramps up airstrikes

📰 Israel ramps up airstrikes

and Kenya leads Haiti security talks

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 25, 2024

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Today’s update covers the world’s most critical conflict zones—including the Middle East, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, and Haiti—where diplomatic efforts are failing to halt escalations.

In East Asia, Russia breaches Japanese airspace, prompting Tokyo’s "extremely stern protest." Meanwhile, in Bolivia, pro-government forces clash with supporters of former president Evo Morales in El Alto.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Israeli airstrikes kill over 500 in Lebanon: Israel has significantly escalated its ongoing conflict with Lebanon’s Hizbollah, which has been an expanding front alongside its war in Gaza. On Monday, Israeli airstrikes hit multiple targets across Lebanon, resulting in at least 500 deaths and injuring 1,645 people, including entire families. The roads connecting southern towns to Beirut were jammed with families desperately fleeing in search of safety. In retaliation, Hizbollah launched a series of rockets at Israel, targeting key cities, including Haifa. Some U.S. officials, speaking to Axios’ Barak Ravid, supported Israel’s “de-escalation through escalation” strategy, though a senior State Department official expressed doubt about its effectiveness. Additionally, the Pentagon announced the deployment of a small contingent of troops to the Middle East as Israel's military actions intensify. Hzbollah stated it would continue responding to Israeli strikes but signalled willingness to end hostilities once a ceasefire is reached between Hamas and Israel in Gaza.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇦🇪 🇸🇩 Biden and Bin Zayed meet in Washington, discuss Sudan: In a statement following a meeting between UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and U.S. President Joe Biden, the leaders condemned the violence, highlighting widespread displacement, famine, and atrocities. They emphasised that "there is no military solution" to the Sudanese conflict, urging an immediate ceasefire, a return to political dialogue, and a transition to civilian-led governance. However, ahead of the meeting, U.S. lawmakers pressed Biden to challenge bin Zayed on his alleged support for the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), accused of serious human rights abuses, including war crimes and ethnic cleansing. Despite U.S.-led efforts to broker a ceasefire, critics claim the lack of pressure on the UAE—found to be backing the RSF—has rendered these initiatives ineffective.

3️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇰🇪 🇺🇳 President Ruto suggests that Kenya-led Haiti security mission should become a UN responsibility: During a visit to Haiti, Kenyan President William Ruto signalled support for transitioning Kenya’s anti-gang mission into a full U.N. peacekeeping operation. Ruto reviewed the Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission, where Kenya leads efforts to curb gang violence that has fueled years of political instability and displacement. With the MSS mandate set to expire in early October, the U.N. Security Council is considering extending it and potentially formalising it as a peacekeeping mission. Ruto stated Kenya "has no issue" with this transition if the Council deems it necessary. Kenya has already deployed 400 police officers to Haiti, part of a planned 1,000-strong contingent, while other nations have pledged 1,900 additional troops. However, the mission has faced delays in manpower and equipment. The U.N. human rights expert for Haiti recently reported worsening conditions, with around 700,000 people displaced.

4️⃣ 🇲🇲 Anti-junta forces target Mandalay: Eyewitnesses in Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city, describe it as increasingly resembling a city under siege. However, despite armed groups nearing its outskirts, many residents do not see them as the enemy. While conflict has long plagued Myanmar’s borderlands, predominantly home to ethnic minorities, the largely Bamar central regions had been spared since World War II. That changed in 2021 when the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s government, igniting political turmoil and civil war. Since then, the military has faced significant defeats by ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy militias. The most surprising development has been the anti-coup alliance’s capture of four towns in northern Mandalay, bringing them within striking distance of the city’s nearly 2 million residents.

5️⃣ 🇧🇴 Protestors clash with rival factions in Bolivia: Pro-government forces clashed with supporters of former president Evo Morales in El Alto, Bolivia, on Sunday, marking the second outbreak of violence in a week. Protesters loyal to Morales and counterprotesters backing current President Luis Arce exchanged firecrackers, explosives, and stones, while police used tear gas. At least eight were injured, according to the health ministry. The unrest coincides with a weeklong, 190-kilometre march by Morales' supporters to La Paz, reflecting deep divisions ahead of the 2025 presidential election. Morales and Arce, once allies, are now rivals vying for control of the MAS party. Their feud has paralyzed the government and exacerbated Bolivia's economic stagnancy. Tensions stem from Morales' controversial 2019 re-election and subsequent resignation. Since returning in 2020, Morales retains significant support among poor and Indigenous communities. Both sides blamed each other for the violence, with Morales accusing Arce’s government of using "paramilitary groups" to provoke the clashes.

Major Story

🇹🇿 🇰🇪 🇪🇹 CRACKDOWNS ON DISSENT IN TANZANIA: THE DECLINE OF DEMOCRACY IN EAST AFRICA

Tanzanian police have arrested three senior leaders of the main opposition party, Chadema, in a crackdown to prevent a planned anti-government protest, raising concerns about President Samia Suluhu Hassan's approach to dissent.

Freeman Mbowe, Chadema’s chair, was detained while speaking to reporters in Dar es Salaam, and deputy chair Tundu Lissu was arrested at home in a raid involving 11 police vehicles. Godbless Lema—a central committee member—was also taken into custody. The protest aimed to highlight alleged abductions and killings of Chadema members, which police had banned earlier this month.

“Demonstration is our constitutional right,” Mbowe declared before his arrest. A total of 14 individuals were detained for defying the ban, with Mbowe’s daughter and two journalists also briefly held. The protest was intended to draw attention to recent disappearances, including that of Chadema official Ali Mohamed Kibao, who was found dead after being tortured.

Hassan, who took office after the sudden death of John Magufuli in 2021, initially inspired hopes for a more open political climate by reversing some of Magufuli’s repressive policies. However, recent arrests, including those of nearly 400 Chadema supporters, have led analysts and rights groups to accuse her of continuing authoritarian tactics.

Oryem Nyeko of Human Rights Watch warned that early optimism about Hassan's leadership is waning, while lawyer Tito Magoti noted her aggressive stance against opposition might reflect rising demands for political participation and human rights ahead of next year’s elections.

Democratic backsliding has become a pressing concern across East Africa. Earlier this year, Kenya experienced a wave of protests, initially sparked by proposed tax hikes but quickly evolved into a broader movement for more accountable governance. Some demonstrators even called for the government's resignation. The protests—which began peacefully on 18 June—turned violent on 25 June when protesters breached police barricades, stormed parliament, set parts of the building on fire, and looted property. In response, Kenyan police, notorious for their brutality, used live fire against the crowds. By 26 June, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights reported 39 deaths since the protests began.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia is at a juncture where—despite not ranking as a democratic polity—Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is also presiding over a state where press freedom is inhibited, and opposition parties and critics of the executive are repressed, often violently. Abiy’s initial promises of political liberalisation have been overshadowed by the government’s crackdown on dissent, especially in the context of the brutal Tigray conflict and ongoing unrest in the Oromia region. Opposition leaders, journalists, and activists face increasing censorship, arrests, and harassment, creating a climate of fear and suppressing political pluralism.

Underlying the protests and democratic erosion in the Horn of Africa is the pressing need to confront the region’s profound fiscal malaise. The region has struggled to cope with the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and escalating climate pressures, which have all compounded existing financial strains.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Zelenskyy hints that the war with Russia is ‘close to the end’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes the war with Russia is "closer to the end" than many think and called on allies to strengthen Ukraine's military. He said, “We are nearer to peace and the end of the war,” emphasising the importance of continued support from Ukraine’s partners. Zelenskyy also highlighted that Russian President Putin is “afraid” of Ukraine’s recent offensive, which has reclaimed over 1,000 square kilometres of territory. During his visit to the US for the UN General Assembly, Zelenskyy plans to present a "victory plan" to President Joe Biden and other key figures. After meeting with US lawmakers, he urged for "decisive action" to end Russia's aggression by next year and praised Congress for its bipartisan support in defending global freedom.

2️⃣ 🇷🇺 🇯🇵 Russia violates Japanese airspace, Tokyo lodges ‘an extremely stern protest’: Japanese fighter jets fired warning flares at a Russian reconnaissance plane that violated Japan’s airspace on Monday, the first time Tokyo has taken such aggressive action against airspace incursions. The Russian IL-38 entered Japanese airspace three times over waters near Rebun Island in northern Hokkaido, prompting a strong protest from Japan, though Moscow did not immediately respond. Japan scrambled F-15 and F-35 jets, firing flares during the third incursion. This marks the first time Japan’s air force has used flares since 1958. Defense Minister Minoru Kihara confirmed the jets acted after issuing warnings to the Russian plane, which did not behave particularly aggressively. Russia remains the most frequent violator of Japan’s airspace, responsible for 44 out of 48 incidents. On the same day, Russian and Chinese warships sailed through the Soya Strait, following joint naval exercises in 2022.