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📰 Israel's forced displacement strategy

📰 Israel's forced displacement strategy

and Brazilian generals face Supreme Court

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 27, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, U.S. lawmakers press the Pentagon to endorse the Aukus submarine pact amid an ongoing review; Weber rebukes Europe’s centre-left over green bill backlash and warns of a looming EU defence deadline; and violent jihadist activity surges in northern Mozambique.

Meanwhile, our main story examines Israel’s Gaza strategy: systematic forced displacement.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇫🇷 🇩🇪 EU summit ends with tensions over trade, climate, and U.S. deal deadline: The European Council concluded late Thursday night in Brussels with divisions exposed over transatlantic trade, climate targets, and strategic direction. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated the idea of a potential WTO alternative for resolving trade disputes, according to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Merz, attending his first summit, pushed for a fast-track deal with the U.S. ahead of President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline, but met resistance from France, which opposes a rushed agreement. POLITICO reported the Commission had received Washington’s latest counterproposal that evening. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron took a softer tone on trade, while discussions on climate were described as “very heated.” As leaders departed, questions remained over sanctions, economic strategy, and what Brussels might accept to avoid a trade war.

2️⃣ 🇧🇷 Generals face civilian court as Brazil confronts military role in alleged coup: In a historic break from decades of military impunity, Brazil’s Supreme Court has summoned former Defense Minister Gen. Walter Braga Netto and Lt. Col. Mauro Cid—both accused of aiding Jair Bolsonaro’s attempt to overturn the 2022 election—to testify face-to-face. Cid, now a cooperating witness, alleges Braga Netto distributed cash to pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators and joined meetings discussing plans to block President Lula’s inauguration. Their tense confrontation, held behind closed doors, underscored deep fractures within the armed forces. Legal experts say the civilian trial marks a pivotal moment in Brazil’s democratic reckoning, as the military’s long-standing protection from accountability begins to erode under public and judicial pressure. A verdict is expected later in 2025.

3️⃣ 🇹🇱 Timor-Leste to join ASEAN after decades-long diplomatic effort: Timor-Leste will formally join the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in October 2025, becoming its 11th member after more than two decades of pursuit. President José Ramos-Horta hailed the accession as a long-awaited milestone in the country’s post-independence diplomacy. Since gaining independence in 2002, Timor-Leste has been an observer in ASEAN and a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum since 2005. Its full membership marks a significant geopolitical achievement, signalling both the country’s persistence and the region’s recognition of its developmental and political potential. For ASEAN, Timor-Leste’s accession reinforces the bloc’s appeal as a hub for consensus-based diplomacy and a key driver of global economic integration.

4️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇱🇧 Witkoff eyes expanded Abraham Accords: U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has said more countries may soon join the Abraham Accords, with normalisation of ties with Israel remaining a core priority for President Donald Trump. Speaking to CNBC, Witkoff predicted “major announcements” and said his team, alongside Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is actively engaged in regional diplomacy. The accords, launched under Trump’s first term, have so far included the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco. A billboard in Tel Aviv—featuring Trump, Netanyahu, and leaders from both normalised and non-normalised states—has stirred speculation. Notably, it includes Syria and Lebanon, despite ongoing territorial disputes. Syrian and Lebanese officials confirmed indirect contacts, but both countries maintain that normalisation is contingent on halting Israeli occupation and recognising a Palestinian state. Oman and Saudi Arabia have reiterated similar conditions.

5️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 Baghdad faces mounting pressure as shifting regional order tests Iraq’s fragile equilibrium: Iraq, long the epicentre of Middle East conflicts, now finds itself on the sidelines. The fallout from the events of October 7 and the widening Israel–Iran confrontation risks pulling Baghdad back into regional turbulence. Iraqi elites, including Iran-aligned groups like Hashd al-Shaabi/Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), have so far embraced restraint, prioritising access to state power and economic recovery. But as U.S.–Iran tensions flare and the Axis of Resistance recalibrates, spillover threats loom—from Kurdish cross-border strikes to regional nuclear escalation. A potential Iranian succession crisis or renewed proxy warfare could unravel Iraq’s fragile sovereignty. Caught between pragmatism and regional entanglement, Baghdad must urgently redefine its role or risk being consumed by forces beyond its control.

Major Story

🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇺🇳 ISRAEL’S GAZA STRATEGY IS SYSTEMATIC FORCED DISPLACEMENT

When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in January 2024 that Israel sought neither the permanent occupation of Gaza nor the displacement of its people, the war’s aims seemed narrowly defined. But more than 18 months later—amid an escalating death toll exceeding 56,000 and a widened regional war—the rhetoric has shifted dramatically. Israel is now occupying vast portions of Gaza, compressing 2.2 million people into smaller zones and strangling humanitarian access. Despite intensified offensives, the government has failed to free any of the remaining hostages and shows no desire to pursue a ceasefire, having manufactured the latest truce’s breakdown in March.

The Trump Plan and a New Gaza

The Israeli government has adopted a more radical vision: long-term military control and civilian removal. Netanyahu has praised President Trump’s proposal to resettle Gazans abroad and rebuild the strip as a “Middle Eastern Riviera.” In March, Israel opened an office to facilitate “voluntary emigration,” and senior ministers have openly spoken of emptying Gaza through force and incentives.

Starvation as a Weapon, Displacement by Design

Humanitarian access has been deliberately constrained. Israel’s blockade starved Gaza for 80 days before allowing minimal aid via a new system: the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), a controversial charity created with U.S. support but lacking transparency and accountability. GHF replaced longstanding UN-led aid networks and now delivers restricted rations, under tight Israeli control, to limited zones, often under fire. Over 500 Palestinian people have been killed while trying to access aid from these sites.

Alongside food manipulation, Israeli forces are using targeted military campaigns to forcibly displace civilians. Entire cities, like Rafah, have been razed following mass evacuations, and Gaza’s population is being herded into overcrowded southern areas, many of which are also bombarded. Leaflets, maps, and military warnings have been used to force movement, with the apparent goal of ultimately driving people out of Gaza altogether.

A Path Forward—or Deeper into Crisis?

Though domestic and international criticism is growing—including from the EU, Israeli military veterans, and former leaders—the Netanyahu administration remains politically insulated. Decisive U.S. intervention remains the only short-term leverage capable of restoring the previous ceasefire and reviving negotiations. Yet as the White House continues to forgo such opportunities—and the EU mirrors its selective application of legal and security norms—Israel’s current trajectory points to further staggering human loss, and its moral and legal collapse.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇦🇺 🇨🇳 U.S. lawmakers urge Pentagon to back Aukus submarine pact amid review: Bipartisan U.S. lawmakers have urged the Pentagon to reaffirm commitment to the Aukus submarine pact with Australia and the UK, calling it ‘vital to deterring Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific’. Their letter comes as the Trump administration begins a 30-day review of the agreement, amid concerns over submarine shortages and shipyard delays in both the U.S. and UK. Despite early legislative progress and joint training efforts, critics—including Under Secretary Elbridge Colby—warn the pact may strain U.S. naval capacity. Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles, en route to the NATO summit, defended the review as routine. Under Aukus, Australia will purchase U.S. Virginia-class submarines before fielding its own by the 2040s, at an estimated cost of A$368bn. Questions remain over feasibility, with mounting scrutiny across all three signatory nations.

2️⃣ 🇪🇺 Weber slams European centre-left over green bill backlash and warns of looming EU defence deadline: European People’s Party leader Manfred Weber accused centre-left parties of ideological posturing amid backlash over the European Commission’s decision to shelve the Green Claims Directive. The proposed bill, which would have required companies to verify environmental claims, was denounced by Weber as “grotesque bureaucratic madness.” Left-leaning lawmakers indicate the move appeases far-right opponents of the bill and exposes Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, an EPP member, to political pressure from her own party. Weber dismissed the accusations as “absurd,” also criticising Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for undermining NATO solidarity. He warned that Europe has just two years to establish a credible defence architecture before key national elections alter the political landscape.

3️⃣ 🇲🇿 Jihadist activity in northern Mozambique surges: At least 120 children have been abducted in recent days by jihadist insurgents in northern Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, according to Human Rights Watch. The children, some as young as eight, are reportedly being forced into labour, marriage, and recruitment as fighters by an Islamic State–linked group known locally as al-Shabab (not related to its Somali namesake). Mozambique’s military, supported by regional forces from Rwanda and South Africa, has struggled to contain the insurgency since 2017. The conflict has displaced over 600,000 people and contributed to severe hunger across the region. Amid a surge in attacks and kidnappings, the Norwegian Refugee Council has called the crisis “neglected,” as hunger, climate shocks, and violence compound, while critics cite U.S. aid cuts under President Trump as exacerbating the humanitarian fallout.