Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Israel strikes Damascus

📰 Israel strikes Damascus

and Cambodia announces conscription law

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
July 17, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

In the Sahel, France signals willingness to explore colonial-era reparations for Niger, while Mali’s junta leader, General Assimi Goïta, is granted an open-ended presidency. Elsewhere, Cambodia reinstates conscription amid tightening political control, and Peru’s Congress passes a sweeping amnesty bill, raising alarms over impunity for crimes committed during the armed conflict.

Our lead story examines the strategic use—and growing complications—of sanctions in modern Western statecraft.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇾 🇮🇱 Israeli air strikes hit Damascus as violence escalates in Suwayda: Israeli air strikes pounded Damascus on Wednesday, targeting Syria’s defence ministry, military compounds, and areas near the presidential palace. Explosions rocked Umayyad Square, killing over a dozen civilians. Strikes also hit the southern Daraa and Suwayda provinces, including drone attacks on military vehicles and F-35 raids on Syrian army brigades. Ten security personnel were reportedly killed. The assault follows deadly sectarian clashes in Suwayda between Druze fighters and government forces, with over 300 killed since Sunday. Israel, using protection of the Druze community as a pretext for their strikes—although analysts point toward opportunism to eliminate Assad-era arms caches—signalled more attacks to come. Meanwhile, Druze leaders have expressed anger over government shelling and alleged imposed ceasefires. Turkey condemned the Israeli attacks, warning they threaten Syria’s post-Assad recovery. Despite calls for peace, Suwayda remains volatile amid looting, civilian deaths, and deepening Druze opposition to both Damascus and Tel Aviv.

2️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇵🇸 UN warns of largest West Bank displacement since 1967: The United Nations has raised alarm over the largest wave of displacement in the West Bank since Israel occupied the territory in 1967, driven by the military’s months-long “Iron Wall” operation in the north. Since January, over 30,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced, with nearly 1,400 homes facing demolition orders. UN officials warn that the mass transfer of civilians could constitute ethnic cleansing and may amount to a crime against humanity. Israeli settler violence has also surged, with 757 attacks recorded this year and a record 96 Palestinians injured in June alone. Since the Gaza war began in October 2023, nearly 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank, amid escalating militarisation and settler aggression.

3️⃣ 🇵🇪 🇺🇳 Peru Congress passes amnesty bill risking impunity for armed conflict crimes: Peru’s Congress has approved a controversial bill granting amnesty to military, police, and self-defence forces accused or convicted of grave human rights abuses during the country’s 1980–2000 internal conflict. Human rights groups, including the Pro Human Rights Association, have vowed to challenge the law domestically and internationally, citing violations of victims’ right to justice. Gloria Cano confirmed appeals have been made to the Inter-American Commission and Court, with UN engagement also underway. The bill could annul 156 convictions and suspend over 600 prosecutions. Critics say the law, backed by right-wing forces tied to ex-president Fujimori, entrenches impunity and erodes Peru’s constitutional obligations under international law. Amnesty International warned the law undermines accountability for crimes including forced disappearances, torture, and sexual violence that disproportionately affected Indigenous communities. President Boluarte has yet to comment.

4️⃣ 🇸🇩 🇺🇳 RSF accused of massacres in North Kordofan as ICC expands Darfur war crimes probe: Human rights lawyers have accused Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of massacring nearly 300 civilians—including children and pregnant women—during recent raids on villages near Bara in North Kordofan. According to Emergency Lawyers, RSF fighters torched homes and executed civilians, killing over 200 in Shag Alnom and at least 46 more in Hilat Hamid. The group emphasised that these areas contained no military targets, calling the attacks clear violations of international humanitarian law. The UN’s migration agency reports over 3,000 people displaced. The RSF, accused by the U.S. and others of war crimes and genocide, denies systemic wrongdoing but promises accountability. Meanwhile, the ICC is expanding its investigation in Darfur, citing “intolerable” atrocities including famine, abductions, and widespread sexual violence. Sudan’s war has now displaced 13 million and killed at least 40,000.

5️⃣.🇱🇧 🇺🇸 U.S. pressure on Hizbollah for phased disarmament risks renewed internal violence: Hizbollah faces its most consequential dilemma since becoming Lebanon’s dominant armed force: disarm and risk losing its key deterrent to Israeli aggression, or risk annihilation. Following Israel’s 2024 assault, which decimated much of its leadership, the U.S. has mounted an unprecedented push for phased disarmament, linking weapons surrender to Israeli withdrawal and economic aid. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack has warned that failure to comply could trigger renewed conflict and diplomatic isolation. Yet analysts note over 3,000 Israeli violations of the December 2024 ceasefire, arguing that any viable disarmament process must include concrete guarantees that Israel will end its military occupation in southern Lebanon and cease breaching Lebanese sovereignty through lethal strikes. Domestically, Lebanon remains divided: President Joseph Aoun supports placing all arms under state control but cautions that doing so hastily could ignite civil war. With Hizbollah's regional leverage weakened by shifting dynamics in Syria, its remaining options—negotiated disarmament, defiance, or partial compromise—carry profound consequences for both the group and the nation. Continued Israeli aggression, however, does little to incentivise Hizbollah's resolve.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇪🇺 SANCTIONS IN MODERN WESTERN STATECRAFT

Sanctions have become a defining tool of Western foreign policy, used with increasing frequency by the US, UK and EU. While once limited to multilateral frameworks like the UN, today’s unilateral sanctions—asset freezes, trade bans, and travel restrictions—are often imposed outside global norms, raising concerns about legitimacy, coordination, and long-term effectiveness.

Consequences and Challenges

Widespread sanctions have sparked unintended consequences. Coordination failures across sanctioning states hinder enforcement, while ambiguous objectives and inflated rhetoric damage credibility. Sanctions can also exacerbate crises by concentrating power within target regimes, stalling humanitarian aid, and punishing local populations. Moreover, secondary sanctions—targeting entities outside the sanctioning country—dissuade Western investment, which simply enables alternative and more flexible actors, such as China, Russia, and Iran to acquire strategic assets, consolidating their global influence. Furthermore, sanction regime justifications also raise concerns among scholars and policymakers over multiple or competing goals and hyperbolic language that place unrealistic expectations on their outcome and undermine long-term efficacy.

A Fragmented Global Order

The proliferation of unilateral sanctions has fractured diplomatic norms and accelerated geopolitical realignment. Increasing collaboration among sanctioned states—the so-called “axis of the sanctioned”—undermines Western credibility and leverage. Accusations of double standards, especially from the Global South, have profoundly eroded trust in the so-called rules-based international order and highlight the need for a more collaborative, principled approach.

Toward for Smarter Sanctions

To restore trust and effectiveness, sanctions must be guided by clearly defined, publicly stated goals. Coordination among allies and multilateral forums is vital, alongside early planning for contingencies. In a Chatham House research paper, Christopher Sabatini and Lydia Isard suggest that policymakers should engage with private and civil society actors through regular reviews to assess both efficacy and unintended harm. Secondary sanctions must be applied with caution to avoid alienating neutral partners. Sanctions should complement a broader diplomatic and economic strategy, not substitute for one.

Sanctions will likely remain central to Western statecraft. But to avoid counterproductive outcomes, they must be transparent, strategic, and flexible—balancing enforcement with diplomacy and accountability with collaboration.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇲🇱 General Assimi Goïta granted open-ended presidency as Mali’s junta consolidates authoritarian rule: Mali’s ruling junta has formalised General Assimi Goïta’s presidency with a renewable five-year term—without elections—ensuring his hold on power until at least 2030. The decree, made public on July 10, overrides the military’s earlier pledge to restore civilian rule by March 2024 following coups in 2020 and 2021. The new charter allows the mandate to be shortened only if conditions permit a transparent presidential vote. Critics argue the regime is tightening its grip by dissolving political parties, banning their gatherings, and repressing dissent. The junta’s national consultation, boycotted by most opposition groups, called for further restrictions on political freedoms. Meanwhile, the military and its Russian allies from Africa Corps face frequent accusations of atrocities against civilians amid Mali’s ongoing conflict with jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS. Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso now operate as the Alliance of Sahel States.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 🇳🇪 France signals openness to colonial-era reparations for Niger: More than a century after French troops massacred civilians and looted villages during the 1899 Voulet-Chanoine mission in present-day Niger, France has expressed willingness to engage in provenance research but has not acknowledged responsibility. In response to a UN complaint from descendants of victims, France cited legal non-retroactivity, stating no formal restitution requests had been received. Survivors’ communities demand access to archives and recognition of atrocities that left hundreds dead, villages razed, and artefacts stolen. While France has recently apologised for other colonial abuses, the 1899 massacres remain absent from school curricula and public memory. Historians and lawyers say acknowledgment—not compensation—is the first step. The case will be presented at the UN General Assembly in October, as 2025 is declared the African Union’s Year of Reparations.

3️⃣ 🇰🇭 🇹🇭 Cambodia announces return of conscription: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet has announced that compulsory military service will begin in 2026, reviving a 2006 law that had long gone unimplemented. Speaking at the Royal Gendarmerie Training Center, he cited recent clashes with Thailand as a reminder of the need to reform and strengthen Cambodia’s armed forces. The service period will be extended to 24 months, and conscripts will become reservists upon completion. Rising border tensions, particularly after a fatal skirmish in the disputed Emerald Triangle, have prompted Cambodia to halt imports from Thailand and close land crossings. Meanwhile, Thailand faces political turmoil over the crisis, with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra suspended. Both countries maintain large standing armies and have pledged to de-escalate, despite continued provocations.