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France names a new prime minister, while Thailand’s top court orders former premier Thaksin Shinawatra back to prison. In the Great Lakes, ISIL-linked ADF militants intensify violence in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Our main story today offers a critical assessment of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal and the realistic conditions for its implementation.

This, and more, below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇶🇦 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Qatar with US approval, shattering Gulf faith in American security guarantees: Israel’s strike on Doha, reportedly backed by Washington, has rattled the Gulf’s trust in the US as its long-standing security guarantor. The attack, aimed at Hamas officials but killing six others including a Qatari security officer, took place just 30km from America’s largest regional base. US radar systems in Doha reportedly went silent during the raid, raising questions over complicity. Qatar, a key mediator in Gaza ceasefire talks and major US ally, denounced the strike as “state terrorism.” Analysts warn the move could push Gulf states closer to China and Iran, undermining US influence built on military protection and economic ties. Even traditionally pro-Israel partners like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have signalled frustration, highlighting the risk of Israel’s ambitions destabilising the wider region.

2️⃣ 🇫🇷 Newly appointed French PM Sébastien Lecornu faces protests as ‘Block Everything’ campaign begins: Newly appointed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu takes office under immediate pressure, as France braces for nationwide blockades and demonstrations organised under the online banner “Block Everything.” Authorities plan an “exceptional” deployment of 80,000 security personnel to clear highways, rail hubs, refineries, and airports, amid fears of violent disruptions. The protest wave was triggered by outgoing premier François Bayrou’s proposed €43.8 billion budget cuts, which cost him his government on Monday. Lecornu, a close Macron ally and former defence minister who has prioritised France’s military rearmament, now faces a volatile parliament and a restless street. Polls show 46% of French citizens back the shutdown, though analysts say it differs from the Yellow Vests, with calls ranging from Macron’s resignation to dismantling political parties. Wider union-led strikes are planned next week.

3️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 🇪🇬 Iran and IAEA sign inspection framework in Cairo amid sanctions threat: Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) signed a technical agreement in Cairo to resume cooperation, including steps toward relaunching nuclear inspections suspended after Israel’s attacks in June. The deal, reached with mediation from Egypt, follows months of strained ties and comes as France, Germany, and the UK move to trigger “snapback” UN sanctions over Iran’s alleged breaches of the 2015 nuclear accord. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi called the framework “a step in the right direction,” while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged rapid implementation. Tehran warned the accord would be void if new sanctions are imposed or “hostile acts” occur. Inspectors have been unable to verify Iran’s stockpile of 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, a level near weapons grade.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 African Union demands climate justice as summit opens in Addis Ababa: The African Union launched its second continental climate summit in Addis Ababa, urging wealthy nations to deliver on long-promised financial support for adaptation. AU Commission chair Mahmoud Ali Youssouf warned that climate change, underdevelopment, migration, and instability are now inseparably linked, stressing that Africa’s vulnerability must be addressed through “climate justice and genuine cooperation.” Despite contributing little to global emissions, African states face mounting losses, with floods and droughts eroding up to 5% of GDP annually. A recent Oxfam-IGAD report revealed East Africa received just 4% of the climate finance needed to meet national action plans. Oxfam’s Africa director Fati N’Zi-Hassane accused industrialised nations of “setting the planet on fire” while offering inadequate aid, demanding that they assume responsibility for the crisis they fuelled.

5️⃣ 🇮🇶 Iraqi forces intensify operations to eliminate Islamic State remnants: Iraqi security forces have launched sweeping operations across multiple provinces to root out the last Islamic State (IS) cells, just as U.S. combat troops begin their withdrawal under a bilateral security agreement. The drawdown places greater responsibility on Baghdad to secure areas once held by IS, particularly in Nineveh, Diyala, Salah al-Din, Anbar, and the rugged borderlands between Kirkuk and Sulaymaniyah. Troops, backed by airstrikes, are targeting caves and mountain hideouts in Kirkuk and Salah al-Din, with commanders stressing that operations rely heavily on intelligence-led pursuits. Officials insist the threat is “negligible,” estimating fewer than 400 militants remain, scattered in remote terrain and under constant surveillance. While IS lost its territorial grip in 2017, Iraq’s stepped-up campaign seeks to prevent its remnants from regrouping or mounting fresh attacks.

Major Story

🇦🇲 🇦🇿 ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN EDGE CLOSER TO PEACE BUT RISK CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLOCK

On 8 August, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met at the White House to initial a long-negotiated peace agreement, raising hopes of ending over three decades of conflict. Yet despite the symbolism of handshakes in Washington, the deal remains unsigned. Baku insists it cannot move forward until Armenia revises its constitution, which still references a 1990 declaration envisioning unification with Nagorno-Karabakh. For Azerbaijan, the clause represents an ongoing claim to its territory. Yerevan is drafting a new charter to remove the wording, but changes require a referendum—an unpredictable process that could see voters reject reform in defiance of outside pressure. 

Lingering mistrust

The constitutional hurdle underscores deeper distrust. In Armenia, fears of renewed Azerbaijani aggression persist, fuelled by years of hostile rhetoric and the 2023 offensive that forced more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan, meanwhile, worries that Armenia might eventually rebuild its military strength and seek to retake lost territory. These anxieties mean the White House ceremony has not translated into tangible confidence between the two sides.

Why peace matters

If signed, the agreement could transform the South Caucasus. Opening borders and normalising relations would enable new trade corridors linking Europe and Asia, integrating the region into global markets and drawing investment into energy and transport infrastructure. Both countries stand to gain economically and politically by moving beyond their entrenched rivalry.

To prevent the referendum from derailing progress, Armenia and Azerbaijan should pursue a compromise. One option would be to sign the agreement now but delay ratification until constitutional changes are secured through parliament or subsequent legal steps. Such an approach would reduce the risks of nationalist backlash in Armenia while keeping the peace process on track. For Baku, easing pressure could prevent hardliners in Yerevan from exploiting resentment and blocking reform altogether.

Role of external partners

International actors have a role in sustaining momentum. By offering tangible incentives—particularly investment in cross-border infrastructure and economic cooperation—foreign partners can strengthen the case for peace. The window for agreement will not remain open indefinitely. To secure long-awaited stability, both Armenia and Azerbaijan must find the flexibility to resolve constitutional disputes without letting them jeopardise an historic opportunity.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇹🇭 Supreme Court orders Thaksin Shinawatra back to prison after hospital detention ruled unlawful: Thailand’s Supreme Court ordered former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra back to prison, ruling his six-month hospital stay was a ruse to avoid jail. Thaksin, 76, returned from self-exile in 2023 and was swiftly hospitalised after hours in custody, sparking outrage. His original eight-year sentence for corruption was commuted to one year by the king, and he was released on parole after serving only in a hospital’s VIP wing. The ruling comes amid political upheaval: Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn was ousted as prime minister on 29 August, and her Pheu Thai party was defeated in parliament days later. Despite his declining influence, analysts say Thaksin remains a force within Pheu Thai. Accepting the verdict, he vowed to keep contributing “for the country and people,” even without freedom.

2️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇺🇬 ADF massacre in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo: At least 60 people were massacred during a funeral in North Kivu’s Lubero territory, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, in an assault by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an ISIL-affiliated militia. The ADF, made up of 1,000–1,500 fighters, has escalated attacks in 2025, including raids on churches, markets, and villages, often accompanied by kidnappings and arson. Uganda and the DRC continue joint operations against the ADF, but the group remains resilient, relying on mobility, forced recruitment, and its 2017 pledge of allegiance to ISIL for survival.

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Book Shelf

Here are some books we recommend 📚:

Prisoners of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

The World: A Brief Introduction

The Shock Doctrine

Sea Power

The Tragedy of Great Power Politics