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📰 Israel strikes Tehran

📰 Israel strikes Tehran

and Ukraine's strategic dilemma deepens

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
June 13, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

The Middle East takes centre stage today as Israel launches a major assault on Iran, fuelling fears of regional escalation. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan continues covert oil exports to Israel despite Turkey’s embargo, while in Syria, foreign fighters are set to be integrated into the national army amid persistent risks of fragmentation. In Iraq, divisions within Shi’a political blocs deepen ahead of the November elections, placing Prime Minister al-Sudani’s political future in serious doubt.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Israel strikes Iran: Israel has launched a sweeping aerial campaign across Iran, marking the most extensive strike on the country since the Iran-Iraq war. Targeting military bases, radar systems, and nuclear infrastructure, the attacks included precision strikes in Tehran, where dozens were killed—including civilians—in upscale residential areas. Senior Iranian commanders Hossein Salami, Mohammad Bagheri, and Gholamali Rashid are among the reported dead, with uncertainty surrounding nuclear negotiator Ali Shamkhani. Key nuclear figures, including Fereydoun Abbasi, were also killed, and major facilities at Natanz and Khondab sustained serious damage. Iran’s Supreme Leader has vowed retaliation, blaming U.S. complicity. Tehran is now weighing “special measures,” including expelling IAEA inspectors and potentially exiting the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—a move that could escalate tensions into full-blown confrontation.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukraine's strategic dilemma deepens: Ukraine’s drone strike deep inside Russia, dubbed Operation Spiderweb, showcased Kyiv's tactical aptitude and exposed Moscow’s security flaws. Yet while the operation may have boosted morale and forced Russia to redirect defensive resources, it did little to alter the war’s strategic balance, nor its underlying realities. Airstrikes, writes Stephen Walt, no matter how dramatic, rarely decide wars. Three years in, Ukraine and its allies still lack a cohesive strategy to counter Russia’s war aims or force a political resolution. Despite Zelensky’s leadership and Western support, the Kremlin remains committed, with Putin facing minimal internal dissent. Ukraine’s offensives haven’t shifted momentum, and its supporters remain unwilling to risk escalation. Tactical innovation alone cannot overcome deep geopolitical divides or Russia’s numerical advantage. Ending the war demands tough diplomacy, not just drones or symbolic battlefield victories.

3️⃣ 🇹🇷 🇶🇦 🇸🇾 Turkey and Qatar step into Syria’s vacuum as Trump ends nation-building: As Donald Trump pulls back U.S. involvement in Syria, Turkey and Qatar have stepped into the breach, becoming key actors in the country’s post-Assad reconstruction. Ankara provides military muscle, while Doha supplies gas and capital, positioning themselves as Washington’s favoured partners in a regional realignment. Both states were early backers of Syria’s opposition and remain active where others have disengaged. In May, the U.S., Turkey, and Qatar signed a $7bn energy deal to rebuild Syria’s power grid, symbolising this new partnership. Meanwhile, Trump’s team continues to sideline traditional Gulf players like the UAE, whose influence has waned after a series of regional setbacks. Syria now serves as a litmus test for Trump’s decentralised strategy: empowering regional allies to stabilise hotspots while the U.S. retreats from direct intervention and long-term nation-building.

4️⃣ 🇸🇴 🇦🇪 🇺🇸 Somaliland edges closer to recognition as U.S. considers strategic pivot: Somaliland’s new president, Abdirahman Cirro, claims international recognition of the self-declared state is now within reach—potentially led by the United States in return for military access to Berbera port. Speaking in Hargeisa, Abdullahi revealed recent visits from top US military officials and hinted at growing frustrations in Washington with Somalia’s fragile government. The potential shift—backed by Trump allies and supported by UAE investments—could spark regional turmoil, with Somalia, Egypt, and others alarmed by the implications for sovereignty and secessionist movements. Meanwhile, Somaliland’s relative stability has attracted thousands of refugees, including Palestinians and Syrians, reinforcing its image as a secure Muslim haven. However, international recognition remains key for Somaliland to fully participate in global aid and security frameworks amid fast-changing Horn of Africa geopolitics.

5️⃣ 🇲🇦 🇮🇱 Morocco-Israel strategic cooperation risks legitimacy crisis and political implosion: The participation of Israel’s Golani Brigade in Morocco’s African Lion 2025 drills has reignited public outrage, spotlighting the cost of Rabat’s deepening military alliance with Tel Aviv. While the monarchy frames this cooperation as a strategic counterweight to Algeria and a means to enhance control over Western Sahara, hosting units implicated in Gaza war crimes has triggered moral backlash. Protests have erupted nationwide, despite tight controls, exposing a growing legitimacy gap. The regime banks on foreign policy gains—Israeli security expertise, Western support, and regional clout—outweighing domestic unrest. But if promised benefits fail to materialise, or dissent swells beyond containment, Morocco risks forfeiting symbolic authority without securing strategic payoff. Normalisation with Israel, once unthinkable, is now a defining test of how far the monarchy can push realpolitik against the grain of national sentiment.

Major Story

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇯🇴 THE MIDDLE EAST ON BRINK OF REGIONAL WAR

Israel’s large-scale aerial assault on Iran has triggered a retaliatory wave of drone and missile strikes, pushing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war. Tel Aviv justified its early Friday bombardment—targeting dozens of sites, including nuclear facilities and the homes of senior scientists—as a response to Tehran’s alleged nuclear weaponisation, a claim Iran denies.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared the strikes aimed to “roll back the Iranian threat,” specifically naming Natanz and Iran’s missile programme as key targets. In swift retaliation, Iran launched over 100 drones toward Israeli territory, while Jordan, Syria, and Saudi Arabia reported interceptions in their airspace. Israeli military spokesperson Effie Defrin warned of "difficult hours ahead" as defence systems worked to repel incoming threats.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei vowed a “severe punishment,” calling the Israeli strikes a crime that would bring a “bitter, painful fate.” Meanwhile, Iranian media reported civilian casualties, including children, following residential bombings in Tehran.

U.S. officials publicly distanced themselves from the operation, but reports in Israeli media indicated Washington was briefed in advance. Critics in the US, including Democrat Senator Chris Murphy, condemned the strike as a calculated move to derail ongoing nuclear diplomacy with Tehran. Murphy warned the escalation benefits Netanyahu politically but risks dragging the region—and America—into a broader conflict.

The strikes came just a day after international nuclear watchdog IAEA declared Iran non-compliant with nuclear obligations. In response, Tehran vowed to expand enrichment efforts, accusing the agency of politicisation. As tit-for-tat attacks continue, the prospect of diplomacy gives way to the spectre of a new warfront in the region.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇿 🇮🇱 🇹🇷 Azerbaijan quietly continues oil exports to Israel despite Turkey’s embargo: Despite officially ceasing oil sales to Israel amid the Gaza war, Azerbaijan has reportedly continued deliveries through intermediaries, according to Haaretz. While Baku removed Israel from customs data and halted direct exports in October, Israeli sources say shipments persist via third-party traders. Turkish pressure—especially as oil moves through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline—likely prompted the formal halt. Yet, satellite tracking shows tankers like Kimolos making covert trips from Turkey’s Ceyhan port to Israel, sometimes disappearing off radar. Protests have erupted in Istanbul, accusing Ankara of complicity, despite Turkey’s official trade embargo. Baku’s strategy appears designed to maintain strategic ties with Israel while avoiding public backlash. The manoeuvre reflects regional realpolitik, where diplomatic optics are balanced against security dependencies and energy interests quietly endure beneath public condemnation.

2️⃣ 🇸🇾 Foreign fighters to be integrated into Syria’s national military, fragmentation risks linger: Syria’s interim government under Ahmed Al-Sharaa has begun integrating 3,500 foreign militants—mainly Uyghurs from Central Asia—into the national army’s new 84th Division. Many once fought with the Turkistan Islamic Party, previously aligned with al-Qaeda. While Washington quietly approves this policy as a pragmatic alternative to endless detention, critics warn it may legitimise extremism under a state banner. Syria’s minorities, particularly Alawites, fear renewed sectarian violence, and jihadist factions like ISIS have condemned the move as betrayal. Meanwhile, China watches nervously, wary of radicalised Uyghurs gaining legitimacy, while Turkey faces new border challenges. Experts say the move prioritises short-term order over long-term stability. By absorbing militants without ideological reform, Syria risks institutionalising volatility rather than ending it—potentially laying the groundwork for future insurgency rather than reconciliation.

3️⃣ 🇮🇶 🇮🇷 Iraq’s Shi'a blocs fracture ahead of November vote as al-Sudani’s future hangs in balance: Iraq heads toward its November parliamentary elections amid deepening fractures within the Shi’a political scene and renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy. The influential Sadrist Movement remains absent, preserving the current power balance, but Prime Minister Muhammad Shia’ Al-Sudani faces mounting uncertainty over a second term. The Shiite Coordination Framework, dominant since Sadr’s 2022 exit, is now splintered into five rival blocs, all pledging to reunite post-election. Key players like Nouri Al-Maliki and Hadi Al-Ameri are maneuvering for leverage, while Sudani tries to forge a centrist coalition. Iran-aligned parties, including Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq’s Sadiqoon, may be distancing themselves for strategic optics. Meanwhile, secular and civil parties struggle to coalesce. With intra-Shi’a rivalries and foreign interests in play, Iraq’s elections promise more fragmentation than clarity.