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Iran moves to suspend cooperation with the IAEA, mass protests over police killings reignite unrest in Kenya, and the World Bank approves a major loan to support South Africa’s recovery and green transition. 

Meanwhile, today’s lead story turns to Washington, where we unpack Trump’s Iran strategy amid diplomatic setbacks and shifting public sentiment.

Read more below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇳🇱 🇺🇦 NATO commits to major defence spending hike to satisfy Trump and deter Russia, Ukraine’s membership bid unaddressed: In a carefully orchestrated summit in The Hague, NATO leaders agreed to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035—3.5% for military capabilities and 1.5% for related infrastructure—marking a significant concession to President Donald Trump. The move, described by Trump as a “monumental win,” aims to reinforce U.S. commitment to the alliance and check Russian aggression. Leaders praised Trump for pressuring allies, with Poland’s President Duda declaring it “his success.” While Spain objected to the spending targets, Trump responded with trade threats. Despite minor tensions, NATO reaffirmed its “ironclad” commitment to Article 5 and pledged continued support for Ukraine, though Kyiv’s membership bid remained unaddressed. Secretary-General Mark Rutte hailed the alliance as “stronger, fairer and more lethal.”

2️⃣ 🇲🇲 🇹🇭 🇮🇩 ASEAN fragmentation deepens as Myanmar crisis fuels parallel diplomacy: More than four years since Myanmar’s coup, ASEAN’s response has fractured into an ad hoc patchwork of national initiatives. While the Five-Point Consensus remains the bloc’s official stance, regional diplomacy has splintered into parallel tracks, with states like Thailand and Indonesia pursuing unilateral or minilateral channels. These informal efforts—ranging from humanitarian dialogues to quiet talks with resistance actors—reflect growing disillusionment with ASEAN’s consensus model and non-interference norm. Although some initiatives have constructively expanded diplomatic reach, others have weakened unity and enabled the Myanmar junta to exploit internal divisions. As China builds influence through bilateral deals and members disagree over Myanmar’s proposed 2025 elections, ASEAN risks losing relevance. Without reform and better coordination, parallel diplomacy may shift from strategic improvisation to permanent fragmentation.

3️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇳🇱 🇺🇸 Prime Minister Ishiba snubs NATO summit as Japan–U.S. ties deteriorate: Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has withdrawn from the NATO summit in The Hague, underscoring Tokyo’s deepening rift with Washington. The abrupt cancellation, reportedly due to a lack of bilateral meetings with President Donald Trump or other Indo-Pacific Four leaders, highlights rising tensions over U.S. tariffs and defence demands. Trump’s steep duties on Japanese imports have hurt the economy, and Japan has resisted pressure to increase military spending or endorse U.S. strikes on Iran. Ishiba’s absence signals strategic recalibration: Japan is expanding ties with NATO, India, and ASEAN states, while reinforcing its partnership with Australia. Domestically, Ishiba faces political headwinds after a historic Tokyo election loss, with looming national elections threatening his leadership if the ruling party fails to secure its upper house majority.

4️⃣ 🇪🇹 🇸🇴 🇺🇸 AFRICOM commander deepens U.S. security engagement with Ethiopia and Somaliland in back-to-back visits: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has met with AFRICOM Commander General Michael Langley. The two discussed regional and bilateral priorities, with a focus on counterterrorism and maritime cooperation. A day earlier, Langley led a U.S. delegation to Hargeisa for talks with Somaliland President Abdirahman Irro, addressing shared defence goals and inspecting the strategic port of Berbera. The U.S. Embassy in Addis Ababa confirmed the emphasis on combating al-Shabaab and ISIS in the Horn. Langley’s near-simultaneous engagements in Addis and Hargeisa reflect Washington’s intent to expand regional partnerships as Red Sea instability and terror threats grow, positioning Somaliland and Ethiopia as key nodes in future U.S. security strategy.

5️⃣ 🇺🇳 🇮🇱 🇵🇸 Israeli weaponisation of food in Gaza constitutes war crime, says UN human rights office: At least 410 Palestinian people have been killed while attempting to access food from newly established Israeli aid hubs in Gaza, the UN human rights office said, warning the system likely amounts to a war crime. These so-called Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) distribution points—set up with U.S. backing—operate outside traditional UN channels and have triggered deadly chaos, with civilians often shelled or shot while seeking food. OHCHR accused Israel of weaponising aid in breach of international law. Another 93 Palestinian people have reportedly been killed trying to reach UN or NGO convoys, as Israel restricts operations. Gaza’s most vulnerable—children, the elderly, and disabled—remain cut off from essentials. The UN says the situation reflects a policy of “weaponised hunger” and warns of a deliberate erasure of Palestinian life, i.e, genocide by starvation.

Major Story

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 MAKING SENSE OF WASHINGTON’S IRAN STRATEGY: DIPLOMATIC SHORTCOMINGS AND SHIFTS IN PUBLIC OPINION

As U.S. President Donald Trump travelled to The Hague for the NATO summit, a fragile ceasefire took hold in the Middle East after 12 days of war between Israel and Iran. Brokered by the U.S. and Qatar, the truce offers a temporary pause. Key questions now dominate America’s Iran policy terrain. While the NATO agenda remains focused on Ukraine and Russia, Iran's nuclear future looms in the background.

Has Iran’s Nuclear Program Been Dismantled?

The strikes, led by Israel with U.S. support, aimed to degrade Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Trump claimed the program was “obliterated,” yet the Pentagon cautions the damage appears limited. Iran still retains significant capacity, and the risk of rapid reconstitution remains. Beyond nuclear infrastructure, Iran’s conventional capabilities, cyber operations, and regional allies continue to irk Israel.

Is There a Diplomatic Roadmap?

The Trump administration has called for peace, contingent on Iran abandoning nuclear ambitions. Yet three major hurdles complicate any diplomatic path: Washington’s betrayal of Tehran’s trust in the manufactured breakdown of the initial talks, Trump’s poor diplomatic record in the Middle East demonstrated by the ongoing Israeli onslaught in Gaza, and unclear intelligence on Iran’s programme status. Regional mediators—like Qatar, Oman, and Iraq—may prove essential to broker dialogue. For any deal to succeed, Iran must have guarantees on non-interference, and Israel must compliance with ceasefire terms. For any durable commitment, Tehran must be somehow assured that Washington is not acting as an arbiter of Israeli interests. 

Can the U.S. Sustain Engagement?

America’s divided public and political opinion—even within the MAGA camp—raise doubts about Washington’s staying power. Pre-strike polling showed low public appetite for confrontation with Iran, and although support rose slightly after the airstrikes, scepticism endures. The illegality of the so-called ‘pre-emptive’ strikes—dubiously framed as such—has further compounded the White House’s dilemma, even among many of its closest allies. Trump now faces the challenge of forging bipartisan backing and a coherent strategy. 

Other News

1️⃣ 🇮🇷 🇺🇳 Iran votes to suspend cooperation with IAEA: Iran’s parliament has unanimously voted to end cooperation with international nuclear watchdog IAEA, following US and Israeli strikes on key nuclear sites. The move blocks independent assessments of damage and enriched uranium stockpiles, signalling Tehran’s hardened stance ahead of stalled diplomatic talks. Foreign ministry officials admitted for the first time that facilities were severely hit. Lawmakers accused the IAEA of bias, demanding security guarantees before resuming inspections. While President Trump claimed Iran’s programme was “obliterated,” US officials believe it was delayed only by months. Debates now swirl around exiting the NPT, as leaders tout national unity while critics warn against triumphalism. Former President Rouhani urged restraint and strategic realism to avoid deeper isolation, even as Iran's internal repression and regional tensions escalate.

2️⃣ 🇰🇪 Nationwide protests over police killings reignite in Kenya as unrest grows: At least 16 people were killed and over 400 injured across Kenya as nationwide protests commemorating last year’s victims of police brutality escalated into fresh clashes. Amnesty Kenya confirmed that most deaths were caused by police, with dozens wounded by rubber bullets or gunfire. Demonstrations in Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, and other cities turned violent as police deployed tear gas and water cannons while protesters lit fires and threw stones. Anger has intensified after recent high-profile killings, including a teacher who died in police custody. Protesters demanded justice and an end to impunity, accusing President William Ruto’s government of repression, corruption, and economic failure. Authorities responded by suspending live TV coverage and blocking access to key sites, further stoking fears of democratic backsliding.

3️⃣ 🇿🇦 World Bank approves $1.5 billion loan to support South Africa’s recovery and green transition: The World Bank has approved a $1.5 billion loan to South Africa to improve crumbling transport systems and support the shift to a low-carbon economy, the National Treasury confirmed. Years of corruption, mismanagement, and failing infrastructure—including ports, railways, and energy—have stifled growth in key sectors and driven unemployment to critical levels. The government says the financing, which includes a grace period and lower rates than traditional debt, will help clear infrastructure bottlenecks, enabling job creation and inclusive growth. Over R1 trillion has been earmarked for transport, energy, and water services over the next three years. However, GDP forecasts for 2025 have been downgraded to 1.4%, and the country also faces a $430 million gap in HIV funding after U.S. aid cuts under President Trump.

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