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📰 Kashmir crisis escalates

📰 Kashmir crisis escalates

and Witkoff in Moscow

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
April 25, 2025

Hello and welcome to Geopolitics Daily,

Today, Azerbaijan weighs joining the Abraham Accords, while Kenyan President William Ruto strengthens ties with Beijing. In South Asia, India-Pakistan hostilities continue to intensify following the Kashmir attack. Meanwhile, in Central Africa’s Great Lakes region, the DRC and M23 appear to have reached a ceasefire agreement.

Our lead story examines the deepening political crisis in South Sudan and the growing risk of renewed civil war.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 🇺🇳 India, Pakistan trade gunfire, UN calls for restraint: Indian and Pakistani forces have exchanged fire across the Line of Control following a deadly attack in Pahalgam that left 26 civilians dead. While India accused Pakistani-linked militants of responsibility, Islamabad denied involvement and warned against escalation. The UN has urged restraint, but tensions have soared, with India withdrawing from the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan closing its airspace to Indian airlines. As security operations intensify in Kashmir, both sides have hardened their positions, heightening fears of further conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

2️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 Dozens of Ukrainians killed in Russian missile barrage as Witkoff arrives in Moscow: U.S. peace envoy Steve Witkoff has arrived in Moscow for further discussions with Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, on Donald Trump’s proposed Ukraine peace deal. With Trump’s self-imposed 100-day deadline approaching, Witkoff is tasked with relaying the president’s frustration over Thursday’s deadly strike on Kyiv while pushing for diplomatic progress. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed cautious optimism, but significant obstacles remain, especially Ukraine’s refusal to cede any occupied territory, including Crimea. Backed by key European leaders and NATO, President Zelenskyy reiterated that Kyiv will not accept terms violating Ukraine’s constitution or sovereignty.

3️⃣ 🇨🇩 🇷🇼 🇶🇦 DRC government, M23 agree to ‘immediate’ ceasefire: The Democratic Republic of the Congo and M23 rebels have announced an agreement to halt fighting in the country’s east as they pursue a permanent truce. The joint statement, mediated by Qatar and aired on national television, marks a rare commitment to a ceasefire in a conflict that has seen numerous failed truces since 2021. Both parties pledged to maintain the cessation of hostilities for the duration of ongoing talks. While DR Congo has long accused M23 of being backed by Rwanda—claims Kigali denies—the Qatar-led mediation comes amid rising tensions and significant Qatari investments in both Rwanda and DR Congo.

4️⃣ 🇵🇸 🇮🇱 Women and children among the dozens killed in latest Israeli strikes on Zeitoun, eastern Gaza: At least 57 Palestinians were killed Thursday in Israeli airstrikes across Gaza, according to medical sources and local media. Four were killed in Zeitoun, Gaza City, while another seven, including women and children, died in a separate strike on a residential building. In Jabalia, airstrikes on a market and a shelter for displaced people left 30 dead, making it the deadliest single-day toll. Additional strikes killed civilians in Khan Younis, Nuseirat, and Sheikh Radwan, including entire families. The assault follows Israel’s resumption of its Gaza offensive on March 18, which has now claimed over 51,000 lives, as international legal proceedings over alleged war crimes and genocide continue.

5️⃣ 🇰🇪 🇨🇳 Kenyan president William Ruto visits Beijing, vows closer China ties following Trump’s trade war: Kenyan President William Ruto’s visit to China underscored a shared commitment to deepening ties within the Global South. The two countries signed 20 agreements spanning science, education, e-commerce, infrastructure, and transport. Kenya hopes to secure further Chinese investment to extend its railway to the Ugandan border and expand the Nairobi–Mau Summit highway—projects seen as vital to regional integration. Amid rising tensions with the U.S., which recently imposed a 10% tariff on Kenyan exports, Ruto praised China’s Belt and Road Initiative and criticised the global order, calling the UN Security Council "broken" and U.S. trade policies harmful. President Xi Jinping, meanwhile, emphasised cooperation on sovereignty, multilateralism, and development.

Major Story

🇸🇸 🇺🇳 SOUTH SUDAN ON THE BRINK

South Sudan faces the looming threat of renewed civil war, five years after the last conflict ended. UN envoy Nicholas Haysom warned the Security Council of a possible political and economic collapse, fueled by fragile internal politics. The transitional parliament remains divided among President Salva Kiir’s SPLM, Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO, and smaller opposition groups. Tensions escalated after Machar’s arrest in March 2025, widely seen as an effort by Kiir to consolidate power. Given their rivalry during the 2013–2020 civil war, the stakes for renewed violence are dangerously high.

Historical Legacy of Conflict

South Sudan’s turbulent history, marked by decades of war even before its 2011 independence, has entrenched ethnic grievances and political fragmentation. Past peace deals failed to create sustainable governance, with militia groups often fighting one another as much as the central government. The failure to hold credible elections for over 15 years has left political legitimacy severely weakened.

Regional Implications

A return to war would have profound consequences for East Africa. Unlike during the previous conflict, Sudan is now embroiled in its own civil war, while Uganda—historically a key backer of Kiir—is growing in influence. Uganda’s rising regional role, combined with its involvement in Somalia, signals a shifting balance of power that could further complicate any intervention in South Sudan.

Prospects for Peace

Haysom’s call for international action underlines the urgency of the situation. Strengthened peacekeeping, renewed mediation, targeted sanctions, and coordinated UN Security Council pressure are among the measures under discussion. However, given South Sudan’s deep scars, rebuilding trust and achieving lasting peace will remain a formidable challenge.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇿 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Azerbaijan mulls accession to Abraham Accords: Azerbaijan and Israel have forged a deep strategic alliance rooted in energy exports and military cooperation, with Baku supplying over 60% of Israel’s oil and receiving advanced weaponry in return. As Israel expands its regional partnerships, efforts are underway to formally integrate Azerbaijan into the Abraham Accords, despite its non-Arab status and existing strong ties with Tel Aviv. Baku, seeking the repeal of U.S. Section 907 restrictions, hopes closer alignment with Israel and the U.S. will secure broader political and economic gains. However, unresolved tensions with Armenia and Tehran’s cautious silence reflect the fragile geopolitical balance surrounding Azerbaijan’s rising regional role.