Geopolitics Daily
Posts
📰 Kashmir's climate and geopolitical vulnerability

📰 Kashmir's climate and geopolitical vulnerability

and China rejects U.S. proposal

Billy Robinson & Ross Crabtree
August 28, 2025

Hello and welcome back.

Headlines from Africa dominate today’s update: Turkey-backed Islamist factions escalate Sudan’s widening conflict; uncertainty clouds the renewal of Somalia’s peacekeeping mission; and Islamic State-linked attacks in northern Mozambique displace thousands.

Our main story examines how intensifying U.S.–China rivalry is reshaping the Indo-Pacific security order.

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇷🇺 President Trump and President Putin discuss energy ties as Exxon explores return to Sakhalin project: After meeting President Trump in Alaska, President Vladimir Putin suggested greater U.S.–Russia cooperation, including Pacific energy trade. Behind the scenes, Exxon Mobil has quietly explored rejoining Russia’s Sakhalin oil and gas project, which it exited in 2022 after writing down $4 billion. Senior vice president Neil Chapman led talks with Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin in Doha, under special U.S. Treasury licenses permitting discussions. Exxon has also sought U.S. government backing, with CEO Darren Woods raising the issue directly with Trump. Putin has eased restrictions on foreign stakes in Sakhalin, hoping Western investment will follow any Ukraine peace deal. A return remains uncertain, dependent on sanctions relief and political agreements, but would mark a dramatic shift after Exxon’s acrimonious 2022 exit.

2️⃣ 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 🇺🇸 China rejects U.S. proposal to join nuclear talks with Russia: China dismissed President Trump’s call to join trilateral denuclearisation talks with the U.S. and Russia, calling the idea “neither reasonable nor realistic.” Foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said China’s nuclear capabilities are far smaller and argued that the two countries with the largest arsenals bear the “primary responsibility” for disarmament. Trump had told reporters he believed Beijing would eventually participate, stressing the need to curb nuclear proliferation. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the U.S. holds 3,708 warheads, Russia 4,380, and China 500. Beijing reiterated it maintains only a “minimum” deterrent and rejects an arms race. The issue comes amid strained U.S.-Russia ties following Moscow’s 2023 withdrawal from their last arms control pact and abandonment of the CTBT.

3️⃣ 🇮🇳 🇵🇰 Floods in Kashmir expose climate vulnerability amid geopolitical instability: Flash floods this month devastated parts of the Himalayas, striking Pakistan and India and leaving Kashmir among the worst-hit regions. On the Indian side, at least 60 people were killed and over 200 remain missing, with roads, bridges, and homes destroyed. In Pakistan-administered Kashmir, nine deaths were reported, alongside widespread disruption and shortages of clean water and medical services. Analysts note the Kashmir Valley is one of the most flood-prone areas in the Himalayas, yet adaptation measures remain inadequate despite the catastrophic 2014 floods. The disputed status of Kashmir further complicates relief, with aid and rescue efforts hindered by political mistrust, militarisation, and communication breakdowns. In Kashmir, climate disasters intensify existing crises, revealing how environmental shocks are inseparable from deep-seated political conflict.

4️⃣ 🇷🇼 🇨🇩 🇺🇳 Rwanda secures battlefield and diplomatic gains through M23 offensive in DR Congo: The ruins of Goma International Airport testify to Rwanda’s covert war in eastern Congo, where M23 rebels—backed by thousands of Rwandan troops, advanced weaponry, and surface-to-air missiles—seized control in January. The assault left thousands dead, hundreds of thousands displaced, and UN peacekeepers sidelined. The U.S. and EU accused Rwanda of sponsoring the offensive, with the Security Council warning of possible war crimes. Kigali denies direct involvement but insists it is defending Tutsis from persecution and hostile militias, while critics say its true aim is Congo’s vast mineral wealth. Rwanda’s battlefield successes forced Kinshasa into a U.S.-brokered peace deal in June, opening avenues for joint mineral ventures. Despite Western condemnation, Rwanda’s growing regional clout—tempered by accusations of exploitation—has been described as a “major diplomatic win.”

5️⃣ 🇦🇺 🇨🇦 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 Australia, Canada and Philippines hold naval drills near South China Sea’s Scarborough Shoal: Australia, Canada and the Philippines deployed three warships and aircraft for exercises east of the disputed Scarborough Shoal, simulating defenses against aerial threats. The Philippine military said the drills concluded safely with no encounters reported with Chinese ships, which have long patrolled the contested atoll. China, which claims the shoal and surrounding waters, has previously warned it would defend the area “at all cost.” The exercises involved the HMAS Brisbane, HMCS Ville de Quebec, and BRP Jose Rizal, along with fighter jets and helicopters. They marked one of the final stages of Australia’s largest joint military training with Manila, involving 3,600 personnel. The U.S., though not a claimant, recently sent two warships near the shoal, shadowed by a Chinese vessel, to uphold freedom of navigation.

Major Story

🇺🇳 THE UN AT 80: FUNDING CRISIS AND THE FUTURE OF GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT

When world leaders convene for the 80th UN General Assembly this September, they will face a financial crisis threatening the institution’s viability. The UN is grappling with a $2.4 billion shortfall in regular dues and $2.7 billion in unpaid peacekeeping contributions, while rules require unspent funds to be returned rather than carried forward. Despite attempts to cut costs by nearly a third this year, the entire system is edging toward insolvency. The strain is compounded by falling aid budgets—projected to decline by up to 17 per cent in 2025—leaving the most vulnerable to bear the consequences.

Structural Weaknesses

The roots of the crisis lie in the UN’s reliance on voluntary contributions, which account for 93 per cent of funding for its development system. These contributions are easily withdrawn and often tied to narrow donor priorities, leaving agencies fragmented and financially insecure. This structure transforms the UN from an independent policy-shaper into a contractor serving its largest donors. Successive Funding Compacts attempted to rebalance financing toward core resources in exchange for greater transparency and efficiency, but governments failed to honour their side of the bargain.

The Promise of the UN80 Initiative

Secretary-General António Guterres has launched the UN80 Initiative to chart a way forward, with three workstreams: efficiency, mandate review, and structural reform. It is the third that holds transformative potential. A reimagined UN Development System must place global norms—on gender equality, sustainability, and human rights—at the centre of its work. Doing so requires not just technical expertise and convening power, but predictable, stable financing. Without this, the UN cannot act as a trusted adviser or global agenda-setter.

Rethinking Finance

Options exist to strengthen the financial base. Expanding assessed contributions, revising burden-sharing formulas, and increasing pooled or joint funds would reduce dependence on earmarked projects. Innovative approaches such as replenishment mechanisms or levies could further broaden resources. But reforms will only succeed if governments first reach consensus on the UN’s role in development and are willing to fund it accordingly.

Countries get the UN they fund. Without predictable financing and a renewed vision for its development role, the UN risks hollowing out just when global crises—from conflict to climate change—demand its leadership most.

Other News

1️⃣ 🇨🇩 Prosecutor seeks death penalty for former DRC president Joseph Kabila over alleged treason and M23 ties: The Democratic Republic of Congo’s prosecutor has demanded the death penalty for former President Joseph Kabila, who is being tried in absentia for treason, war crimes, and alleged support for the Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion. Kabila, who ruled from 2001 to 2019 after his father’s assassination, faced mass unrest when he delayed elections for two years beyond his mandate. Authorities accuse him of backing M23 rebels, who have seized key cities in eastern Congo, and cite his return from exile to Goma—under rebel control—as further evidence of complicity. His current location is unknown. The prosecution also sought lengthy additional sentences for conspiracy and condoning war crimes. Kabila’s allies denounce the case as politically driven, while analysts warn it risks deepening instability.

2️⃣ 🇭🇹 🇺🇳 Haitian police retake seized telecom hub from gangs in Port-au-Prince: Haitian police announced Tuesday that they regained control of the Téléco telecommunications site in Kenscoff, a facility armed gangs had captured last week, briefly disrupting internet and air traffic. The dawn raid, led under newly appointed police chief André Jonas Vladimir Paraison, lasted two hours and uncovered automatic weapons, ammunition, and dismantled servers. Authorities said the operation sent a “strong message” and pledged further raids in gang-held areas. The site had been seized by Viv Ansanm, a powerful gang federation designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. earlier this year. The UN-backed Kenyan-led multinational force joined the operation, with commander Godfrey Otunge urging patience. Despite the success, gangs still control an estimated 90% of Port-au-Prince and continue assaults on surrounding communities.

3️⃣ 🇩🇪 🇨🇳 🇺🇸 American contractor in Germany indicted for offering military secrets to China: German prosecutors have indicted an American man, identified only as Martin D., on espionage charges for allegedly offering U.S. military secrets to Chinese intelligence. The suspect, in his late thirties, worked as a civilian contractor for the Pentagon from 2017 to 2023, including at a U.S. military facility in Hessen. Authorities say Martin D. repeatedly contacted Chinese officials in the summer of 2024, pledging to provide sensitive information, though investigators believe no data was transferred before his arrest in Frankfurt last November. The indictment, filed in Koblenz, accuses him of attempting to act as an agent for a foreign power. His case comes amid heightened Western alarm over Chinese and Russian espionage efforts targeting military and logistical infrastructure across Europe.