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📰 Khartoum offensive escalates

📰 Khartoum offensive escalates

and Netanyahu dismisses ceasefire

Ross Crabtree & Billy Robinson
September 28, 2024

Hello and welcome back to Geopolitics Daily,

The Middle East is at the forefront of global news today as U.S. President Biden designates the UAE as a “major defence partner.” Simultaneously, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected a ceasefire proposal for Lebanon, while Washington earmarks $8.7 billion in military aid to Israel despite calls for ceasefires in both Lebanon and Gaza.

Tensions in the South China Sea remain high as Japan participates in an unprecedented military exercise that includes the transit of one of its vessels through the Taiwan Strait.

More details below ⤵️

Top 5 Stories

1️⃣ 🇸🇩 Sudanese Armed Forces launch Khartoum offensive: Sudan's army has launched a major offensive in Khartoum to reclaim areas controlled by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—after it fell to the paramilitary in the early stages of the conflict—military sources told Al Jazeera. Air raids targeted RSF positions in the capital and northern Khartoum, marking the army's largest assault in months. Al Jazeera reported heavy fighting near the presidential palace, with the army advancing and seizing key bridges linking Omdurman to Khartoum. At least four civilians were killed and 14 wounded in RSF artillery shelling. The conflict, which erupted in April 2023, has displaced over 10 million people, including two million who fled Sudan.

2️⃣ 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Netanyahu rejects Lebanon ceasefire proposal: Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed that Israel will not cease its attacks on Hizbollah in Lebanon, despite calls for a three-week ceasefire from the US, France, and other allies. Lebanon’s foreign minister—Abdallah Bouhabib—addressed the UN General Assembly, backing the ceasefire initiative and emphasised diplomacy as the only way to save lives. Israeli airstrikes killed 92 people on Thursday, with airstrikes all over the country throughout the night. Netanyahu, landing in New York, reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to its military goals, dismissing the proposed ceasefire as an American-French initiative not yet addressed. Almost 100’000 in Lebanon have become displaced as a result of the latest Israeli offensive.

3️⃣ 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 Zelenskyy visits the White House, as partisan support grows: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US President Joe Biden and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in Washington, seeking continued support ahead of the US election. Zelenskyy urged for more military aid, regardless of the election's outcome. While Biden and Harris reaffirmed their commitment to backing Ukraine, Republican candidate Donald Trump and some members of his party have expressed scepticism about ongoing assistance. Biden pledged nearly $8bn in additional security aid and vowed to disburse all approved funds before his term ends in January 2025, emphasising Ukraine's need to win the war.

4️⃣ 🇯🇵 🇹🇼 Japanese naval vessel passes through Taiwan Strait in epoch-making exercise: A Japanese destroyer passed through the Taiwan Strait on September 25, marking the first time a JMSDF vessel has traversed this strategically contentious waterway since the force's inception in 1954. This move is part of Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s efforts to bolster international norms and counter China’s growing military assertiveness near Japan. The Sazanami sailed from the East China Sea to the South China Sea, accompanied by Australian and New Zealand warships, ahead of joint exercises. Japan has traditionally avoided such actions due to concerns over Beijing's retaliation.

5️⃣ 🇬🇳 Conakry city centre evacuated after violent outbreak near presidential palace: Gunfire erupted near Guinea’s presidential palace in Conakry on Thursday night, leading to a temporary lockdown of the city centre by the army. Journalist Fode Toure reported hearing gunshots near the palace, and witnessing widespread panic. According to a diplomatic source, 11 dissident soldiers loyal to Col. Celestin Bilivogui attacked special forces but were quickly subdued, leaving three dead and eight arrested. Bilivogui, who disappeared after his 2022 arrest, was found dead a day earlier. The ruling junta denied the incident, calling it a "fabricated rumour." Guinea has been under military rule since 2021, with elections planned for 2025.

Major Story

🇨🇩 🇷🇼 HUMAN RIGHTS WATCH REPORT EXPOSES WAR CRIMES COMMITTED BY RWANDA AND M23 REBELS IN DR CONGO

Background

According to Human Rights Watch, the Rwandan army and M23 armed group have relentlessly shelled displacement camps and densely populated areas near Goma in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo throughout 2024. The Congolese armed forces (FARDC) and allied militias have exacerbated the danger to displaced individuals by positioning artillery close to these camps. Both factions have been implicated in killing and raping residents, obstructing humanitarian aid, and committing various other violations of international humanitarian law.

Escalation of Conflict Near Goma

In January this year, the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF) and the M23 armed group advanced toward the town of Sake, west of Goma, effectively severing supply routes to the provincial capital. Since then, the M23, supported by Rwandan forces, has significantly expanded its control over North Kivu, marking the group’s largest territorial gains since its resurgence in 2021, according to the United Nations. Since then, residents of Goma and some 500’000 people have been caught in the crossfire, without adequate access to humanitarian assistance, according to HRW researcher Clémentine de Montjoye. She continues, “Both Rwanda and Congo must cease their support for abusive armed groups, uphold their obligations under the laws of war, and ensure unimpeded access to humanitarian aid.”

Violence and Abuses in Displacement Camps

Congolese soldiers and the militia coalition known as "Wazalendo" have opened fire in displacement camps, resulting in civilian casualties and sexual violence against women, both within the camps and among those searching for food nearby. In Kanyaruchinya camp, victims have been detained for extortion. M23 fighters have also raped women trying to cross the front lines for food. Médecins Sans Frontières reported that over 10% of young women in camps around Goma experienced rape between November 2023 and April 2024, with some areas seeing rates as high as 17%.

International Community’s Response

The UN, African Union, and concerned governments have urged all parties involved in the conflict, including non-state armed groups, to halt violations of international humanitarian law, prioritise civilian protection, and support sanctions and prosecutions of commanders responsible for war crimes.

HRW documented five apparent unlawful attacks by Rwandan and M23 forces since January 2024, where artillery or rocket fire targeted displacement camps or populated areas near Goma. Notably, on May 3, Rwandan or M23 forces fired at least three rockets into camps around Goma, resulting in the deaths of at least 17 civilians, including 15 children, in the area known as 8ème CEPAC. The placement of military artillery by the Congolese army near these camps has further endangered civilians.

A displaced individual from Mugunga camp expressed despair following the May 3 strikes, stating, “We don’t know what to do anymore. Whether we stay or return home, death follows us everywhere.”

The armed conflict in eastern Congo is subject to the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and customary international humanitarian law, which prohibit deliberate or indiscriminate attacks on civilians and mandate precautions to minimise civilian harm. These laws also forbid war crimes, such as killing in custody, torture, and sexual violence, and require all parties to facilitate humanitarian aid. Individuals who commit serious violations with criminal intent are liable for war crimes, and commanders can be held accountable for failing to address abuses by their forces. States that knowingly supply weapons to abusive groups may be complicit in such crimes. Additionally, the use of explosive weapons with wide-area effects in populated areas is discouraged, as it often leads to indiscriminate attacks and has long-term consequences.

The European Union and the United States have imposed sanctions on leaders of abusive armed groups, including the M23, and on senior Congolese and Rwandan officials linked to supporting these groups.

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Other News

1️⃣ 🇦🇪 🇺🇸 Biden declares UAE a ‘major defence partner’: US President Joe Biden has officially designated the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a “Major Defence Partner,” further solidifying their strategic relationship. This new status enables the UAE to access advanced US defence technology and deepens military collaboration amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Biden praised the UAE’s role in fostering regional security, particularly in counterterrorism efforts and supporting the Abraham Accords. While not equivalent to a NATO alliance, the designation strengthens the UAE’s significance in US foreign policy, aligning with Washington’s goal of encouraging Gulf states to assume greater responsibility for regional defence.

2️⃣ 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 Washington earmarks $8.7 billion in military aid for Israel, despite calling for Lebanon and Gaza ceasefires: This funding, part of a broader $26.38 billion national security supplemental passed by Congress in April, is ostensibly intended to strengthen Israel’s defence capabilities amidst escalating tensions in the region. Israel’s Ministry of Defense emphasised that the aid package helps maintain the country’s qualitative military edge and supports its ongoing military efforts. However, the announcement comes amid increasing international pressure for a ceasefire. On Wednesday, the U.S., European Union, several Arab nations, and the UN called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire in Lebanon, where the conflict between Israel and Hizbollah threatens to engulf the region further. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) also warned of the potential for genocide as Lebanon’s death toll has surpassed 700, with entire families among the casualties. Critics argue the aid package effectively gives Israel a "carte blanche" to continue its military campaign, raising concerns about the humanitarian toll and the broader impact on regional stability. Despite international appeals for a cessation of hostilities, Israel has shown no signs of slowing down its military actions, and the latest U.S. aid underscores Washington’s commitment to supporting Israel amid the ongoing violence.